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14 October 2016 2519 comments
J0E J0E
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Crystal ball gazing took centre stage during the second week of the international break as our community writers sought to find the best way to predict Fantasy returns.

A host of data, metrics and player attributes came under their watchful eyes as they considered the optimum captains and transfer moves over the coming weeks.

Our hot topics were also in spiritual mood as they prepared for Gameweek 8, a part of the fixture schedule with almost holy status among Fantasy managers. Elsewhere, there’s further number crunching predictions in our Members table section, and we assess whether some of our key players will find themselves benched this weekend or add to the legend that is Gameweek 8.

The Community Articles

Statistical chat stepped up a gear this week with a raft of articles delving deep into the player numbers to see how best to predict Fantasy returns.

Spreadsheet led the numerical charge with two articles, the first looking at how reliable points per game is as a guide to potential points and the second focusing on the best data to use to assess captaincy candidates.

Also armed with facts and figures was Your Mum’s Athletic, who dropped by to explain how fixture and form data can combine with bookies odds to help us pick out Gameweek 8’s best armband options.

Meanwhile, Bowstring the Carp undertook a refresh of Rakkhi’s One Stat To Rule Them All research from last year, which looked at the influence of shot accuracy on spotting points hauls. The comments section in this Members community article is particularly fascinating for those looking to gain further insight into points prophesising.

The veterans had mixed fortunes in their ability to number crunch player data over the last three Gameweeks, according to Kavali’s latest update on the fortunes of the 50 experienced Fantasy Premier League managers he is tracking this season

Don’t forget, if you’ve got some analysis, scout reports or features brewing, be sure to visit our community section to submit your article.

The Hottest Topics

Gameweek 8 has legendary status among Fantasy managers, with the potential to make or break a season. For the last two years, popular captain pick Sergio Aguero has scored a total of nine goals over this set of fixtures. While its position in the calendar, often around an international break, can make it a potential minefield for rotation and injuries.

Investment in some of Stoke City’s cut-price players is among the potential opportunities open in 2016/17’s Gameweek 8: the Potters now embark on a lengthy run of “easy” match-ups. In our discussion on the Stoke’ schedule we found out whether you are willing to take a risk on the fixtures improving their form.

Another team garnering interest is Tottenham Hotspur, particularly their defenders. As Dino’s hot topic shows, while the likes of Kyle Walker are expensive, they offer considerable points potential for those with some spare change in the bank.

For those looking for some less popular, under the radar options Worzel Gummidge’s hot topic will appeal. There were further differential striker options on offer in our discussion on the best front three to have for Gameweek 8 and beyond.

Chelsea’s Diego Costa may be one card away from a ban, but KTK Interiesta thinks on current form the Premier League’s top goalscorer this term is being unfairly overlooked for one of the three FPL striker roles.

International injuries are just one of the traditional Gameweek 8 pitfalls. Luckily knocks and niggles to the likes of Everton striker Romelu Lukaku looked to have passed. However, there are still concerns that fatigue could curtail the minutes of some of the Premier League’s more well-travelled players, in particular, Arsenal’s Chilean midfielder Alexis Sanchez and Aguero, who played 163 minutes for Argentina during the international break. MNR96 has been looking closely at their minutes for their national squads in his discussion on whether the pair will start or be asked to take a rest this weekend.

One player that is in no danger of fatigue is Wayne Rooney, who was dropped from England’s starting line-up for their Tuesday night clash with Slovenia. His axing from both the England and Manchester United first XI prompted us to start a discussion on other Premier League stars, who look to have passed their sell by date.

Finally, Gameweek 7 proved another poor week for our Scout Picks, but at least the Scoutcast team did well with their successful differential picks, according to Andy85wsm’s review.

The Members Tables

The analyser has taken a look at the best midfielders to choose from. For best results this table should be sorted by either chances created or goal attempts.

Also, here’a reminder that I turned Rakkhi’s One Stat To Rule Them All analysis into a Members table last year. Click here to see the latest accurate chancers with the potential to rack up the points over the coming weeks.

If you’re a member and are yet to get to grips with the custom statistics tables, you can view this movie for an explanation of how they work. Also, remember to tag them so that people can find the tables with ease.

J0E Podcaster and writer. Tweets stats and stuff via @FFScout_Joe Follow them on Twitter

  1. Kevtheotter
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Hey lads would love some help with this one

    Foster
    Williams Valencia Evans
    Firmino Sanchez Sterling Antonio
    Kun Lukaku Rashford

    Jaku Capoue Collins Amat

    A) Save
    B) AOA
    C) Rashford --> Austin
    D) Valencia --> Vert

    Cheers

  2. Goodricke
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Son, Walcot or Antonio?

    Choose 1 (Sanchez, Snodgrass and Milner already in midfield and Barry on the bench)

    1. Odikostar
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Son

    2. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Son, Walcott

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Sorry, only one. Then Walcott because of Son's rotation risk

    3. Goodricke
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Wildcard team so:

      Lloris Pickford
      Walker, VVD, Amat, Evans Williams
      Sanchez, Son, Snodgrass, Milner, Barry
      Kun, Costa, Benteke.

      1. Geezer
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Midfield too weak

      2. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Shocking midfield

    4. Jestadt1
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Theoooo

  3. agarthered
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Alexis or Kun Captain?

    Driving me nuts, think I've switched it twenty times this week.

    What's everyone doing?

    1. Stupendous
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Sanchez. Kun V

    2. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Kun

    3. Jestadt1
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      All in on Kun

    4. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Why Kun? Last corresponding PL fixture was 0-0 and now Everton defence is better and no KDB

    5. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Sanchez

    6. bigbudgie
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Aguero default

  4. Ravager
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Foster (Japu)
    Walker Valencia Williams (Kelly Amat)
    Sterling Firmino Antonio Capoue (Fletcher)
    Aguero Deeney Lukaku

    1 FT 4.5 ITB

    A. Fletcher > Walcott
    B. Antonio > Sanchez
    C. Sterling > Sanchez + Valencia to Mustafi (-4)

    1. Jestadt1
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      A-better short term
      B-better long term

      I'd go with B

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for the answer!

    2. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I don't like hits but C looks good! Should make that -4 back quickly.

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Yep. I had Antonio+ Valencia (lol) lined up but that sudden antonio drop threw me off

  5. Stupendous
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Gtg?

    Grant.
    Koscielny. Walker. Holebas
    Capoue Sanchez(c) Antonio Firm Sterling
    Aguero(v) Lukaku

    Heaton. Lovren. Diomande. Kingsley

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Looking good!

      1. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers badger. Captain on Sanchez OK??? I don't think Everton lay down for us but I fancy us winning comfortably. 2-1/3-1. Easier than score would suggest.

        1. badgerboy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          I'm on Sanchez, he seems safer to me. Yeah Everton won't be walked over + Barca mid week + international minutes+ maybe no KDB.

  6. gwitbrock
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    This is what Milner on the verge of a double rise reminds me of.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWO2kcLNz5o

    1. Pariße
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      This looked like the weakest punch to ever knockout anyone 😀

    2. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I remember, a long time ago, I captained Milner during an Aston Villa double gameweek. He did absolutely nothing. I've never forgiven him.

      1. gwitbrock
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Didn't you know? Milner is subject to the never bench never captain don't buy don't sell never underestimate never overestimate never call boring rule.

  7. Nicks93
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Captain Sanchez or Aguero?

    Currently on Sanchez

    1. Hotdogs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      sanchez

    2. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      The big question of the weekend. Aguero has scored 9 goals the two last GW 8

      1. Another Hoops
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        ^ Pointless point.

  8. FeverPitch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Would you do Abel Hernandez (yeah..) and Valencia to Callum Wilson and Holebas for a hit? Hernandez actually getting minutes being the main worry...

    Thanks for any input

    1. Nicks93
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      No

    2. Jersey
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      no

    3. Jestadt1
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I would...good idea to take a hit to improve team for the long term. Next week's transfer can be used to sort something else out.

    4. FeverPitch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks all

  9. The Legend Squad
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    This international break has dragged on... revisiting my team and it looks like this:

    Pickford
    Vertongen Evans Williams
    Sanchez Sterling Firmino Antonio
    Aguero Lukaku Rashford

    Jaku Lovren Amat Fletcher

    1 FT 0.2ITB

    Any changes needed?

  10. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Why are people selling Sterling? Is his injury that bad? He has been really good this season.

    1. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Too many midfield option I guess, and rotation risk. I`m buying him on my WC after the price changes

    2. Stupendous
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      He is in the squad and should start

      Kdb also set to start apparently.

      Quote me.

      1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        where are u getting set to start from...u have a source or just interpreting?

    3. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I think that sell can backfire real good...

  11. GloryBXI
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    A) Marshall
    Or
    B) Grant

    Already have Pickford

    1. Pariße
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Marshall

    2. Sean.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Grant

    3. Jersey
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      grant won't be playing much longer. Butland returning.

      so the answer is obvious.

      1. GloryBXI
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Butland still a month away.

        1. Jersey
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          why set yourself up to make another GK transfer 3 or 4 weeks from now?

          you should make zero GK transfers the entire year, barring injury.

          pick your 2 playing GK's, pick the right ones, and that's that.

        2. Kiwivillan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          He was a month away Sept 30th

  12. GuillermoDickero
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Have 2fts and can't figure out what to do so I'm going with a real dull transfer!

    Which out of these would you rather have ahead of Jevans?

    A) Cameron / Pieters
    B) Robertson
    C) Francis (Can't afford Smith)

    At the moment I like the look of Francis, simply because I can see B'mouth keeping more clean sheets than Stoke or Hull.

    Robertson seems pretty attacking so I would probably go with him after that in terms of preference.

    What are other people's thoughts? Anyone doing a similar transfer?

    1. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      b

  13. Puyol Pants Up
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    How long till price changes?

    1. Geri-hatricks
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      less than an hour

  14. Geri-hatricks
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    I've analysed the stats to death over this break and I still can't decide so I'll put it to a vote.

    A) Firmino
    B) Coutinho

    Cheers.

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      A

      1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        own both form klopp comments a this week but if both play then def b. so that doesnt help u much

        1. Geri-hatricks
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          Cheers for that. The threat of Coutinho dropping deeper is enough for me (although most of Coutinho's shots are long shots anyway...)

    2. Wally with the brolly
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Whichever one you do your be wrong 🙂
      I've got firmino for what it's worth

  15. Sean.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Sterling going to drop ?

    1. Stupendous
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      He will play

    2. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      price fall yes

    3. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      he will drop and play

  16. FPL Emu
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Not much between Holebas and Smith I guess.

    Any opinions who to get?

    1. Sean.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Holebas on 4 YC

      1. FPL Emu
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        I know, but the most important is he plays this week. Next I have Kos, Baines and Amat with a decent home fixture. After that Kos, Baines and ... well, I'd want him then 🙂

        1. Sean.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          Not a lot in it,

  17. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Best set of transfers?

    A) Antonio/Ibra -> Sanchez/Benteke
    B) Valencia/Antonio/Ibra -> Smith/Sanchez/Lukaku (-4)

  18. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    2FTs, any advice?

    Pick
    Kosc • Walker • Baines
    Sanchez • Antonio • Firm • Mane • Capoue
    Kun • Kaku

    Foster - Diomande - Pieters - Amat

    1. Jersey
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      not fond of your squad structure --

      if you are going to have Diomande, and play a 3-5-2, Capoue needs to be upgraded.
      otherwise, what's the point?

      how much itb?

      1. zizoo10
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        pretty much none, 0.1. im happy to gameble on capoue 2 more weeks

  19. The Game of Throw Ins
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    What do we think of my wildcard team.

    Grant, Pickford

    Walker, Kosc, Smith, Holebas, Amat

    Sterling, Firmino, Walcott, Son and Capoue

    Aguero, Costa, Austin

    2.3 in the bank to use to get one of de bryune or Sanchez and to upgrade grant.

    1. The Game of Throw Ins
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Do I need lukaku over Costa?

      1. Geezer
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        No, I think Costa will get more points than Lukaku over the season.

        1. The Game of Throw Ins
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          I think I agree with you

    2. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Looking very good If you dear to go without Sanchez

    3. Jersey
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      not Grant. why use a transfer on him later when you are on C and can do it now?

      Capoue too expensive for a 5th mid. He may rise in price tonight, in case that helps you.

      don't plan your future transfers for a big hitter. you are wildcarding. take care of the detail/s now.

      1. Jersey
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        *when you are on WC*

        1. The Game of Throw Ins
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          Keeping grant simply for stokes next few fixtures then I can easily change him to heaton

          1. Jersey
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 5 months ago

            do you really want to use your one free transfer some week on a GK you could add now for free?

            i don't like GK transfers. no need for them.

            1. The Game of Throw Ins
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 5 months ago

              I think I'm willing to wait to be honest. Stokes next three games are just to good to miss. Plus I already have Pickford I can play when butland comes back.

              1. JTEXTREME
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 5 months ago

                Jersey is spittin' truth!

  20. Stupendous
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    You can quote me on this one...

    Kompany
    KDB
    Sterling.

    ALL FIT , in squad, and I think we could potentially see all three start.

    I reckon Vinny might be on bench though.

    1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      ur still not answering why u think kdb will start u have a source or just conjecture.. odds of him starting are slim

      1. Stupendous
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        I agree but Pep wants a backlash for Spurs last time out. Even with his history he is playing his strongest tomorrow I have heard.

        I have close City sources. Most the time correct although I was wrong once last year.

        All three are in line to play.

        I think it's about a 99.9% certainty Sterling starts, and again, I've heard both KDB AND Vinny could start or very least feature.

        Kdb back on radar for me. Some dead teams could kill it tomorrow.

        1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          why risk him?

          1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 5 months ago

            he will be bench at best if ur right tomorrow and he is in starting line up i will hang on ur every man city word.. i presume kun is starting tomorrow?

            1. Stupendous
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 5 months ago

              100%

    2. JTEXTREME
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Listen to Jersey

      1. JTEXTREME
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        replyfail

  21. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    2FTs, Baines/Antonio > 5.0 def/Walcott

    Yay or nay?

  22. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    a) Mustafi/Payet and Whelan 5th mid

    b) Bellerin/Son and Snoddy 5th mid

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Never mind, prefer B myself

  23. ViewsFromThePo6ba
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    For the upcoming fixtures,

    Mahrez or Vardy?

    And who's likely to be on pens?

    1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      mahrez both questions

      1. ViewsFromThePo6ba
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Worth a double up if funds permit?

    2. FeverPitch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I think there are much better options in those positions for those prices...

      1. ViewsFromThePo6ba
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Yes. But fixtures are prime. Already have the other "much better options".

        1. FeverPitch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          Fair enough, if you're set on it. Could work out. Think I'd always go Mahrez over the two unless Vardy showed significant form

  24. theBoose
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Is Milner a viable option?

    Or is bringing in a midfield listed playing defender the only sign I need?

    1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      viable as long as they keep getting pens.. not impossible but how many can a team get..

  25. zizoo10
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    whos the best 5.0 defender (not pieters)

    1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      there is none at 5. robertson 4.5

      1. gwitbrock
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Cedric when fit by a mile, Curtis Davies, PVA, Stones, Keane. Cheaper options also tempting like Robertson, Mcnair, Naughton, A Smith, Lowton. Depends on which team you back for cleanies. Long term I say pick a Burnley man. Lowton imo.

    2. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      4.6 smith and 4.5 Holebas

  26. Ravager
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    If you had to sell one of Sterling or Antonio to get in Sanchez. Which would you and why?

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Antonio. Sterling in a goal scoring set-up with good fixtures to come. He might be prone to rotation would be my only slight doubt.

    2. Prison Mike
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Think I am selling Antonio because of West Ham's awful form

    3. Differentiator
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Sterling. Rotation risk. Still like Antonio for CPL who don't have Scott Dann!

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Sorry for the late answer but thanks for the thoughts guys!

  27. Twelve years a slave
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    How overvalued would you say Ibrahimovic was?
    and at what price would you consider fair value?

    I would put him around 10m about the same price as Costa and
    Lukaku, anything more seems excessive.

    1. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      9 and i might be tempted. never have never will

    2. michudagawd
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah 10m seems right.

    3. FeverPitch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I'd say him and costa should have been the same, probably around 10, lukaku .5 below and Kane .5 or 1 above

      1. Twelve years a slave
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        In fairness he would have been very difficult to price up. However after seeing Seven weeks
        of him he looks much nearer to 10 than 11.5

        1. FeverPitch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah for sure. I guess the fact that he was 11.5 and commanded that much ownership showed they priced him well, with regards to making the game more interesting

  28. GGMU11
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Play Kelly (whu) or Coleman (manc)? Feel like both are likely to concede, but Coleman possible attacking points ?

  29. Kiwivillan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Every day someone posts Walcott is not nailed for long. Laughable. Played more minutes than any Arsenal mid and got a Wenger said pre season he thought this might be his best yet. Cazorla and Xhaka more at risk than Walcott from Ramsay return and Iwobi will drop if Giroud returns

  30. AYEW KI-EDEN MEE
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Ozil's birthday today. Captain confirmed.