Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Lacazette can match Aubameyang output

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Who are the best 3 defenders at 4.5?

    1. Lukakwho
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Tomkins, Boly, Doherty

  2. Lukakwho
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Robbo or VVD (already got TAA)

    1. Lukakwho
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      someone please reply

    2. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      VVD then

    3. FredrikH
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Robbo

    4. clodhopper
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      not sure myself

    5. Joe
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Robbo for more attacking potential. VvD is slightly more nailed

    6. fenixri
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I went Vvd. I feel he will outscore Robbo

  3. Smurf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Most will hate it but I’ve settled on starting with double Palace defenders in my starting eleven - PVA & Tomkins.

    1. Barbarians
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      i like that. fixtures not bad. Palace got more stable at the back

      1. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks. Didn’t think I’d get that response from anybody. They just have a great run of fixtures and both have attacking threat.

    2. Willllsonnn!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I've got Tomkins and WB, prob only starting Tomkins though

      1. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I actually have triple Palace defence with AWB too but I’ll just be starting with two in my eleven.

        1. 1-1 at Newcastle
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Three palace defenders? Sorry mate that is ridiculous

    3. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Don’t you want clean sheet points?

  4. Going Home
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Just wanted to share some info for anyone looking at Spurs players from the start of the season:

    Spurs have 5 home games in their first 14
    Of those 5, they play at home to Liverpool, Chelsea, United and City

    Triple Spurs essential from GW15 but I don't expect to be looking too closely at any before then

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Nice catch

      1. Going Home
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Not to mention most of their squad made it to the World Cup knockout rounds (and about half made it to the final weekend!)

        1. AlexDelPiero
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Fair enough, but Spurs are typically good away, wouldn't count them out yet

    2. Infamy, Infamy
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Fake news. Away to United. Home to Cardiff.

      1. Going Home
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Sorry, that's a good spot! Home to Fulham and Cardiff before 5 December. Otherwise home to Liverpool, City and Chelsea and nine away games.

        Still, not what I'm looking for at the outset. And only given for information, not telling people what to do with the info. Spurs will obviously score some goals before early December (I assume)

        1. Infamy, Infamy
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Appreciate your original post. It's the analysis like this of fixtures that really helps. Question is - will Spurs perform well away from home?

  5. HNI
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Is Tosun and SIggy the best everton options now that Richarlison has competition with Bernard? Are they nailed though?

    1. Lukakwho
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Richarlison has no competition. 50M is not too sit on the bench for a club like Everton.

    2. Going Home
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      The guy the new manager brought with him from his old team and splashed up to £50m on is not in competition with anyone lol

    3. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Rich is nailed with that price

    4. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      There’s more chance that Bernard is competition for Siggy than Richarlison.

      1. Willllsonnn!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Not sure I agree with that given Bernard usual position

        1. George Sillett
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Silva has already spoken about how is looking forward to them playing together.

  6. DRIZ ✅
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Who has Rich and Jota in their teams?

    Happy with both playing against each other GW1?

    1. Willllsonnn!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yes, they both might score/assist

  7. wanaj84
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    help me
    suggest keeper price 4.0 nailed

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      No nailed
      I would go Hamer

  8. GE
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Last decision:

    1) Luiz
    2) Bailly
    3) Tomkins, upgrade Peltier -> Doherty and keep 0.5 itb

    Patricio
    Robertson/Mendy/xxx
    Salah/Mane/Bilva/Rich
    Aguero/Arnie/Zaha

    Bench: Hamer, W-B, Peltier, Stephens

    1. Going Home
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Either Coleman or Bertrand and bank the extra

      1. GE
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Maybe Coleman, good shout

  9. Critical Observer
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    From the article: "Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game"

    It does indeed, but not in the way hinted at by the writer. Or would anyone like to make a convincing argument as to why should we expect City to be defensively vulnerable in this match?

  10. gomez123
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A) Kun( rotation risk)
    B) Auba

    my front line would be:
    Salah/Eriksen/Richarlson/Fraser
    Firm/Zaha/*Kun or Aub

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A to start off

  11. m_archer16
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    having a dilemma about GKs. Got 4.5 & 4.0. who are people going for?

    1. Going Home
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Patricio and Hamer

  12. Willllsonnn!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Who to bench GW1

    Cairney v Palace home
    Arnie v Pool away

    1. Prison Mike
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A

    2. Cofinho
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Cair

    3. Gol D Roger
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Cairney

      7 is too much for the bench

  13. Prison Mike
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A or B guys?

    A) Mane & Zaha

    B) Firmino & Lucas Moura

  14. Andrew
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    A. Fab Bavies
    B. DDG and £4.5

    1. Going Home
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Avoid spurs - 5 home games in first 14; four of those v the rest of last season's top five

  15. There's Always One!
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    There are so many options for 6.5m midfielders. I currently have Richardlison and Pedro.

    Who do you all think are the best options?

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Milivojevic, I rate him but many people have differing opinions.

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Same here, but would you pick him over Zaha?

        1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          I've picked Arnie over Zaha. But could easily change it Zaha.

    2. Beatle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Don't think Pedro is a good pick personally

      1. There's Always One!
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Not sure about him myself. He had a good pre season and id like Chelsea cover is my thoughts

        1. Smurf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Cover is a myth.

          Having a poor Chelsea player for good fixtures is less likely to bring points than having a good [insert team] player for poor fixtures.

    3. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Richarlison, Maddison and Jota.

  16. dillydally1982
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Fraser/Firminho +1M OR Mane/King

  17. RubberDucky
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Is Neves the peno taker for Wolves?

      At the moment im looking for two 5.0 mid and a 5.5 defender

      Or a 5.0 def and mid, with a single 5.5 midfielder.

      Thanks

    • gomez123
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Sorry all this tinkering has sent me mad...my front 7 is:
      A) Kun( rotation risk)
      B) Auba

      my front line would be:
      Salah/Eriksen/Bsilva/Fraser
      Firm/Zaha/*Kun or Aub

    • fenixri
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      My biggest concern is should I spend 5.5 on gk or take 4.5 gk and use 1m elsewhere. Torn between Ederson and Rui.

      My option is
      A) Ederson - 5.0 mid - King
      B) Patricio - Fraser - 7.0 striker ( have Zaha and Kun already)

      1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        A
        Would look maybe at other 5.5 though as Ederson will use a city spot

    • bluetiger
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Final piece of the puzzle:
      a) Jota and Firmino
      b) Mane and Mitrovic

    • John Colby (Capt)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Option a or b please:

      a: David Luiz and Ryan Fraser

      Or

      b: Rudiger and Cairney

      1. Rotation's Alter Ego
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Hard for me to say no to Fraser 😉

        A

        1. John Colby (Capt)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Cheers

    • SpaceCadet
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      King or Arnie?

      1. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Have both. But I’d honestly pick Kinng put of the two. Better fixs

        1. SpaceCadet
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks

    • thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Richarlison or Jota?

      Have Rich, but Everton’s terrible pre-season...

    • My neck my back my Saed Kol…
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Best keeper option? Had Emerson but don't want to waste an outfield spot on a liverpool or city GK.

      A) Pickford
      B) Kepa
      C) LLoris

    • Lukakwho
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      can someone do a player comparison of VVD VS ROBERTSON and post it here. please.

      1. Gr3g
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Do it your self

    • Morbius
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A) Sanchez & Sturridge (Reckon this is the puntiest of them all?)
      B) Mane & Arnautovic
      C) BSilva & Firmino (Templatest of them all?)

      1) Aubameyang
      2) Kun

      1. adased
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I went Bilva and Sturridge and spent the extra cash elsewhere

        Might backfire spectacularly on me tho.

    • LangerznMash
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Best 3 DeEFs for the 1st 3 GWs.
      I'm on Daniels, Kabasele and Hoedt (best fixtures and all nailed).

      Any different picks?

      1. AlexDelPiero
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Currently have daniels, but am enticed by Kabasele

    • CarrollsPonytail
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Current midfield is:

      Salah, B.Silva, Richarlison, Jota & Cairney

      Would you do the following move?

      B. Silva - Mahrez
      Jota - Hughes

    • Danstoke82
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Ok last decision. Need a 5.5 def Which one?

      A) Bailly
      B) Coleman
      C) PVA
      D) Tomkins and use 1.0 elsewhere

    • Chockky
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      hopefully last idea of team

      Mahez+King
      or
      Townsend+Vardy ( sub to play first 1/2 gw for Vardy)