Pro Pundits - Tom

Identifying the non-‘big six’ clubs with the best early fixtures in 2020/21

One of the world’s best FPL managers, Tom Freeman (aka avfc82), looks at the favourable fixture runs of clubs outside the ‘big six’.


Though football in the COVID-19 era looks and feels different, home advantage is still a thing.

Yes, there has been a slight drop in home win percentage across Europe’s top leagues but the change is not large and, for most clubs outside of the elite, targeting wins at the location you know best still makes the most sense.

So, with this in mind, what I’ve tried to do in this article is identify the teams outside of the traditional ‘big six’ who have the best runs of consecutive, winnable home matches that we can tap into – the types of games managers will be earmarking for three points.

I’ll then offer my thoughts on the stand-out assets from each of the clubs discussed. You’ll notice that I’ve tried to ensure there are a few reasonable away matches thrown in too and that all of the runs I highlight start no later than Gameweek 6. At this stage, there seems little point looking too far ahead, but if it proves popular, it’s something I might revisit further down the line.

Also, because of the type of fixture runs I’ve focused on, I’ve removed games against last season’s Premier League top eight from my analysis, which is worth remembering when viewing the data.



BEST PLAYERS BY POSITION:

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

1,088 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BNMC
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 18 days ago

    Last thing - what is the most you would pay for Havertz in FPL?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      8.5m

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      8

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      8 sounds about right

    4. Jonflamingo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      9

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        A definite wait and see at that price.

    5. Nightrain_
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      ready to pay 8.5 for him but if 8.0, i'm a happy guy

    6. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      8.5-9

    7. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      I'd love him to be 8.0 but I expect 8.5

  2. davies
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 18 days ago

    Thoughts on starting with Ferguson?

    I won’t need to play him and will save a potential transfer down the line....

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Mitchell is my pick

    2. Jonflamingo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      Ferguson is inj

      1. davies
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Yes but I don’t need to play him and he’ll be first choice when fit

        1. Sharkytect
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Any idea when he will be fit?

    3. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 18 days ago

      No brainer, why pay extra 0.5 for 5th defender

      1. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        This season a 4.5 could be useful as 5th def for rotation with the other two 4.5s most going with?

        1. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          If playing 3 at back, 4 nailed and one deadwood is fine imo. Atleast until WC, we don't really need to rotate.

          1. PogBruno
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            With a 5 or 5.5 mid and Mitrovic, 4 at the back could come in handy too in some GWs

      2. davies
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        As opposed to going with Mitchell/Johnson etc mate

        1. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Ah ok. He is atleast better than those options.

    4. ivantys
        1 month, 18 days ago

        If you're gonna pick a 4m defender and not gonna play him at all, you can try Buur from Wolves there's a small chance he will play in Doherty's position.

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I'm starting with Mitchell and intend to switch to Ferguson when he's ready/picked to start. Doesn't have to be immediate as it's for bench duty - just when I have a spare free transfer.

          1. ivantys
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Yeah same here but I probably won't even change him even if he's not first choice anymore, I'll just leave him as a dead weight. Or when I use my wild card in week 9 or 10.

      • PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        If anyone looking to setup a draft league, please share the code and time

        Thank you

      • GE
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        A) Ziyech and Dier (3-5-2)
        B) Ings and Justin (3-4-3)

        1. PogBruno
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          B

        2. Gabbiadini
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          B

      • Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        anyone else not too fussed about their team at the moment and waiting until a few days before the deadline to properly sort it out ?

        1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          o/

          Still haven't made a 1st draft.

        2. Sharkytect
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I am on draft number 15

          Not as fussed as previous seasons!

        3. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          0/

          Already bored, sigh... Its too simple!

        4. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Too much of not knowing which players will be available as well as new signings coming in.

          1. Hotdogs for Tea
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            yip, transfers by clubs will kill most drafts ... can’t see the point of building a team yet with fillers such as ... like Mitchell, Brewster, Davis, Justin, Saliba, Steer, Nyland etc, even the likes of Vinagre, ASM, Lamptey, Adams are tricky picks
            ... when you have little idea yet if they will be starters

        5. Galza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I actually really love my team.

          I won’t be changing anything to it, unless I have too...

        6. mattrobb
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Yep

          Could easily be injuries on international duty... frankly expect them as national teams are a bit clueless about injury prevention

          Have a draft, but nothing nailed

        7. Amey
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          I'm fussed.
          But ready to accept that it will change once we get close to GW 1.
          Too many variables.
          Transfers + Corona + International friendlies etc

          1. Hotdogs for Tea
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            how many players do you have from my list above ? 😉

            1. Amey
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Vinagre & Adams 🙂

      • Kobayashi
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 18 days ago

        The Tottenham 'All or Nothing' Amazon documentary is making me look at ways to bring more Spurs players like Alli into my team. Not sure if this is a good thing or not.

        1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Lucky it wasn't a Villa documentary.

          1. Kobayashi
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 18 days ago

            John McGinn would be in my starting XI by the end of the first episode.

          2. Amey
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Grealish is cheaper at least ....

        2. Gabbiadini
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Alli ownership has definitely increased.

          1. Kobayashi
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Could also be due to Ziyech's injury, though.

          2. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Not by much - still a really great differential at 2.1%

      • Gabbiadini
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        McCarthy
        TAA | Vinagre | Justin/4.5
        Auba(KDB) | Salah(Fernandes) | Alli | Barnes(Pulisic) | Armstrong
        Werner | Ings

        Nyland | Brewster | Mitchell | Johnson(Taylor)

        GW2: Salah to Fernandes (Barnes to Pulisic could be completed in GW2 also but will likely delay due to Pulisic's current injury and fixture)
        GW3: Barnes to Pulisic & Auba to KDB

        0.5 has been left ITB for potential price rises to achieve transfers.
        If no money is lost then the money can be used to get 4.0 to Taylor in GW4 in readiness for Burnley's fixtures v Newcastle & West Brom.
        Pulisic is of particular interest in GW3, avoids Liverpool (GW2) and greater initial fixtures of West Brom and Crystal Palace.

        Thoughts would be very much appreciated 🙂

        1. Oi! Shadders!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Looks really good. The only thing I question is whether you could have Taylor now and keep him benched, rather than have to make such an annoying transfer later. One of my aims is to have my defence set for the next 8-10 weeks (in theory) so that I can focus transfers on the attack.
          Otherwise, really nice.

          1. Gabbiadini
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Apologies I was slightly incorrect, I don't have 0.5 ITB in GW1.
            I get 0.5 ITB after GW3 (my ideal upgrades), the money can then be used to get Taylor potentially in GW4.

            1. Oi! Shadders!
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              In that case, leave it as it is. The majority of your squad looks great.

              1. Gabbiadini
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                thanks for the feedback.

      • pundit of punts
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 18 days ago

        Who do you think would be the pick of the united attackers?

        I think it’s gonna be Mason Greenwood at that price.

        Feel he’s going to have a season like the vardy/Mahrez title winning campaign wherein he scores loads while being priced modestly.

        1. Inazuma X1
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Nah Sancho will be joining United

          1. Galza
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            How much do you think he would be?

            9ish?

        2. PogBruno
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          But am not sure he will get starts consisently, we will sign either Sancho or Brooks for the RW

          1. Amey
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            You can drop Brooks from that list now.

            1. Silecro
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Sancho is "on the verge of signing" for like a month now, if not longer. You know it will not happen. Ed will not give 108 mil

              1. Amey
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                That doesn't mean Brooks would sign though. He'd cost 40m +.
                Can't see that happening myself

        3. Red Red Robins
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Depends if Sancho comes in

        4. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Greenwood amazing value if he is a regular starter. Can't ignore Bruno either who seems a tad underpriced. Martial and Rashford look about the right prices.

        5. Karan14
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Bruno Fernandes

          1. baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Bruno and in form Rashford. He wasn't as clinical after injury (restart) as he normally is. Difficult to have both for gw2 though.

        6. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 18 days ago

          Bruno the pick for me and feel he is underpriced by 1m. Greenwood immense value. Martial a good price despite the repositioning. Rashford is the one I am not so sure on. Can't see him taking 6 penalties again this season.

        7. ivantys
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Pretty sure it's gonna be just bruno and martial that are must haves in united's team.

            1. mrelpea
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Agreed. I’m starting with Bruno on the bench for GW1 and will be watching martial to see how he gets on. Don’t see Greenwood getting as much time on the pitch

              1. ivantys
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  You won't want to skip martial for week 2 though.

                  1. mrelpea
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Yeah I know what you mean, it’s a bloody tasty fixture. I ummed and aaahd for so long about which united player to start with, benching/transfer options etc for getting city/united players in and can’t get past Fernandes. I have Werner and ings and 0.5 itb so have option of going for martial if he becomes a must have

            2. circusmonkey
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              I'm on him because that's all I can afford but I think all this XG stuff doesn't matter so much for him because he's a good finisher. Rashford tends to blaze wildly but I don't have that concern with Greenwood.

          • balint84
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 18 days ago

            Rodák, Fabri or Betinelli is the no1 keeper at Fulham?

            1. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Rodak I head - decent shot stopper too but don't think they'll keep many clean sheets

              1. balint84
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 18 days ago

                would be my secondary keeper. I don't want to bother keepers. He will be good if my no1 against City or Pool

                1. Miguel Sanchez
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  Who is your first choice?

                  1. balint84
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Ramsdale

                    1. Miguel Sanchez
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 18 days ago

                      Cool, I said I'd never go down the GK rotation path again but this is what a Ryan and McCarthy rotation could look like across 38 GWs.

                      cpa, new, bur, WBA, cpa, WBA, avl, NEW, avl, MAN, bha, SHU, ful, SHU, ful, WHU, WOL, lee, lee, FUL, AVL, man, new, AVL, CPA, wba, shu, BHA, NEW, BUR, wba, CPA, shu, LEE, wol, FUL, LEE, whu

                      Inevitably a lot of benched points in the mix but looks mighty tempting to me written like that and 0.5 cheaper than Ramsdale/Rodak

                      1. ivantys
                          1 month, 18 days ago

                          This could work but I'm just not pleased with Southampton and Brighton's defences as both kept only 9 clean sheets each last season. Those clean sheets here could overlap or be kept against a top 6 side which you never expect.

                        • balint84
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 18 days ago

                          Maybe I would play Ramsdale against thebig4 anyway, but what if he got injuried. still got 1.5itb. Your plan looks good on paper, but the benched points will cause more stress/funtime I reckon.

            2. Inazuma X1
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              When will the first video of FPL Blackbox be out today?

              Any mods around?

            3. Fpl-king
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 18 days ago

              Hey all

              For sure my question would have been covered But I don’t have much time Atm to do any research and stressing with the fpl season soon to kick off

              What is everyone’s plan regarding the city & Utd players what strategy are people planning to go for ?
              Chips? Etc

              Any help

              Thanks in advance

            4. ivantys
                1 month, 18 days ago

                Why is nobody picking Jack Robinson I'm curious

                1. Hotdogs for Tea
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 18 days ago

                  because he isn’t nailed ?

                  1. ivantys
                      1 month, 18 days ago

                      I actually find Vinagre or Justin to be as risky if not more risky than him

                        1. ivantys
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            Yeah I probably should just go back to my draft in a week's time.

                  2. Jay Arell
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 18 days ago

                    Nerd some advice on this one:

                    A) Doherty, Son, Adams + 0.5 ITB
                    B) Dier, Alli, Ings

                    Cheers!

                  3. SergeyNikiforenko
                      1 month, 18 days ago

                      Hi, someone tried putting all 3 lpool def in team, does it make sense?
                      Ryan(nygard)
                      TAA, VVD,Robbo (Mitchell, Johnson)
                      Armstrong, Son, Alli, Barnes,Greenwod
                      Kane(C), Ings(2week to martial), Mitro.

                      1. Holmes
                        • 7 Years
                        1 month, 18 days ago

                        3 Liverpool defense can work over long term but I'm not sure about triple Spurs attack.

                      2. ivantys
                          1 month, 18 days ago

                          Your team's decent but doherty over alli for me.

                      3. akhilrajau
                        • 2 Years
                        1 month, 18 days ago

                        A. 3-4-3
                        McCarthy
                        TAA, Justin,Vinagre
                        Salah,Auba,Son,Saint-Maximin
                        Ings,Werner, Mitrovic
                        Bench: Nyland, Oriol Romeu,Mitchel,Johnson

                        B. 3-5-2/4-4-2
                        McCarthy
                        TAA, Doherty, Vinagre
                        Salah,Auba,Son,Saint-Maximin
                        Ings,Werner
                        Bench: Nyland, Oriol Romeu,Mitchel,Johnson, Davis

                        1. ivantys
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            A is better, I rather have mitrovic than having a blank forward, although at 6m I would suggest jordan ayew instead.

                            1. akhilrajau
                              • 2 Years
                              1 month, 18 days ago

                              K thanks. Actually i am planning for martial and one city mid in gw 2 and 3

                              1. ivantys
                                  1 month, 18 days ago

                                  Mitro swap martial? If so then I would go with Ayew for week 1 as I don't expect mitro to score against arsenal if you saw how well arsenal defended in the CS.

                                  1. akhilrajau
                                    • 2 Years
                                    1 month, 18 days ago

                                    No. I agree with u for gw 1. I think to get in martial for Werner, can't get martial with mitro price or need to think other united options.

                          • jk_footyfan
                            • 1 Year
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            Is Matty Cash (AVL) a good pick as rotating DEF if priced at 4.5?

                          • Adambailey7
                            • 5 Years
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            When switching to man. It’s assets. Anyone thinking of sterling over KDB?

                            1. Reeceviljoen
                              • 7 Years
                              1 month, 18 days ago

                              Some days

                          • pundit of punts
                            • 7 Years
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            A. Son + Mitrovic

                            Or

                            B. Vardy + Soucek

                          • andrewchy
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 5 Years
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            anyone care to share their draft pick priorities?

                            1. Offside
                              • 1 Year
                              1 month, 17 days ago

                              Just researching players and trying things out.

                          • Silecro
                            • 2 Years
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            I have a question. Is there any consensus here regarding overall rank evaluation, something like..
                            Top 1k - Awesome
                            Top 10k - Great
                            Top 50k - Decent
                            Less than 100k - meh..
                            I have finished last season at 32k (my personal best ranking up to date, third season playing) and I really dont know where to place that in regards to the serious players that I consider you all here on FFS.
                            Cheers!

                          • JurgenRodgers
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 3 Years
                            1 month, 18 days ago

                            Preferred Option

                            (A) Doherty Barnes Adams

                            (B) Davies ASM Ings

                          • Offside
                            • 1 Year
                            1 month, 17 days ago

                            Do you think Justin and Vinagre will play?

                            What about James at Chelsea and Maitland Niles?

                            I noticed Ziyech was picking James in advanced positions, he’s crossing. But will he play?

                            Might just go for Walker Peters and someone like Coady.

                            1. jamesjoseph2770
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 5 Years
                              1 month, 17 days ago

                              Vinagre will play as the Ghoulam news has subsided now. Justin not so sure with Castagne's signing. U can look at 4m Kilman or Buur from Wolves..

                          • Offside
                            • 1 Year
                            1 month, 16 days ago

                            McCarthy Nyland
                            TAA, Doherty, Vinagre, Walker Peters, Mitchel
                            Salah, Auba, St Max, Saka, Bissouna
                            Werner, Ings, Mitro

                            1.5 on bench - Upgrade Ings to Martial - sit on bench. Probably switch Salah to Fernandes gw2. 2 utd v Palace.

                            Doherty - will Dier play. If so could add 0.5 to Walker Peters get James or get 5.5 for Tierney/Ake
                            Saka - not many 5.5 - Armstrong - so better 6.5 - Traore, Foden

                            Not sure on Werner, unproven, 8.5 Jiminez, then use 1.0 to upgrade Mitrovic who wont be that much of a threat.

                          • Offside
                            • 1 Year
                            1 month, 16 days ago

                            McCarthy
                            TAA
                            Dier
                            Vinagre
                            Salah
                            Auba
                            St Max
                            Traore
                            Ings
                            Martial
                            Jiminez

                          • Pommie22
                              1 month, 15 days ago

                              Hi guys 1st attempt at FPL so any thoughts appreciated.
                              McCarthy(Nyland)
                              TAA,Doherty,Vinagre,Egan(Struijk)
                              Salah,Aub,Son(Biss,Stephens)
                              Werner,DCL,Mitro

                              Alt- Son,Strunk for Barnes,Arlington +1.5 ITB

                            • Pommie22
                                1 month, 15 days ago

                                Sorry predictive txt is a #*$¥ Son for Barnes and Ayling for Struijk