This season has been an up-and-down journey for those Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers who’ve kept faith in Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m).
Back in August, the attacking full-back bagged a goal and two assists from the first couple of matches, soon shooting up to an ownership of 6.35 million. But things haven’t been the same since returning from a three-month injury picked up in Gameweek 7.
His comeback cameo goal against Tottenham Hotspur preceded an FA Cup stunner and two league clean sheets, all in succession. 1.75 million purchases over three Gameweeks. Then suddenly Estupinan gets replaced at half-time in the 4-0 Luton Town defeat, starting only one of the four matches since.
In this period of doubles, blanks and defensive injuries, a barely-used Estupinan helps nobody in FPL.
OUT OF FAVOUR
Hopes were raised when Brighton and Hove Albion boss Roberto De Zerbi invited Estupinan over for pasta, perhaps with some table chat about how he could keep Everton at bay on Saturday.
“I rotate the players who come round for dinner,” De Zerbi boasted, before quickly dampening such optimism by rotating their starting spots too. Estupinan being reduced from clean sheets to lasagne sheets.
In fact, De Zerbi has spoken about the situation further:
“I am not happy with his performances. He can play better. We are playing in a different way, usually with three at the back, but I think he can give more and more, and he has to play better.
“My demand for him is to play better because he is an important player, a crucial player for us. Last season he was crucial, and my expectations from him are bigger than his performances.” Roberto De Zerbi, in quotes reported by the Argus
He currently prefers Tariq Lamptey (£3.9m) instead – an individual who hadn’t started consecutive league matches in almost two years but is now on four in a row.
So, with the Seagulls’ upcoming fixtures suggesting it’s time to sell anyway, here are some of the more logical options to replace the Ecuadorian international with.
BEST ESTUPINAN FPL REPLACEMENTS
Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.2m) / William Saliba (£5.7m)
Having one Arsenal defender might not be enough. Managers have noticed in large numbers that Mikel Arteta’s side seemingly has the league’s best backline. Their 10 clean sheets are at least two more than everyone else, while no team has conceded fewer goals (23), shots on target (61), big chances (27) or expected goals (xGC, 18.52).
The final one of these is particularly dominant and suggests they’re actually underachieving. According to LiveFPL, the combined top 100k ownership of Gabriel, Saliba and goalkeeper David Raya (£5.0m) is 113.12%, meaning that there’s nothing to be gained from having just one of these. Unless that individual scores a goal which, to be fair, both centre-backs have recently been doing.
Three of FPL’s top-scoring defenders play for Arsenal hence it could be a good idea to possess several of them. The only obstacle is their possible Blank Gameweek 29, which we’ll know everything about by Wednesday night.
Marcos Senesi (£4.5m)
Bournemouth’s Gameweek 29 status depends on both them and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the FA Cup, versus Leicester City and Brighton respectively. Surrounding that, fixtures look superb, including a Double Gameweek 28 at home to both Sheffield United and Luton Town.
Their top-scoring name at the back is Senesi, FPL’s fourth-best defender since Gameweek 12. The November win over Newcastle United started a run of four clean sheets from seven, which Senesi added to with consecutive goals at Crystal Palace and Manchester United to complete 14 and 15-point hauls.
He recently scored a consolation goal at Fulham but these have been the Argentinian’s only three shots on target. Goalless centre-back partner Illia Zabarnyi (£4.4m) actually beats him for attempts inside the box (six) and headed efforts (six).
Despite the Cherries not yet successfully shutting out any 2024 opponents, the quantity and quality of imminent fixtures – beginning with a trip to Burnley – needs consideration.
Senesi is, however, on eight yellow cards – two more and he’ll receive a two-match suspension.
Alfie Doughty (£4.6m)
Meanwhile, the other team with Double Gameweek 28 is Luton, although poorer ones come before and after. But bookmaker’s odds have them as the most likely match to be added to Blank Gameweek 29, boosting Doughty’s potential to those not intending to Free Hit then.
The wing-back’s six-game streak of returns may be over but solid ownership remains inside the top 100k, with the knowledge that, from Gameweek 15, he’s ahead of all other defenders for attacking returns (seven) and penalty area touches (35), ranking second for chances created (24). No player in any position outdoes his season’s 217 crosses.
Furthermore, Doughty’s removal with 16 minutes left of the 4-1 defeat at Liverpool has been confirmed as just an impact knock by boss Rob Edwards. He’s passed fit for the Hatters’ FA Cup match.
A Crystal Palace defender
Then again, Luton may feel their first part of Double 28 has just gotten harder, with Crystal Palace keeping a clean sheet during Oliver Glasner’s first game in charge.
Cheap centre-back Chris Richards (£3.9m) scored and is on 13 successive starts, while January signing Daniel Munoz (£4.5m) had the weekend’s second-most final third touches (38) amongst defenders. Glasner loves attacking wing-backs and Munoz scored eight league goals for Genk last season, netting five times in the first half of this campaign. And still in over 1.5 million squads is Joachim Andersen (£4.7m), who himself bagged two early-season goals.
Saturday’s clean sheet was the Eagles’ first since Gameweek 11, where a patch of four from six ended. But underlying stats for the season remained decent. They’ve got the sixth-lowest total for chances conceded (327) and are joint-fourth at preventing shots on target (105).
Replacing Estupinan with either of Palace’s defenders could pay dividends in FPL. A new manager bounce, with fixtures against Luton (h), Nottingham Forest (a) and Bournemouth (a) either side of Gameweek 29.
Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m)
It’s probably a bad time to mention Reguilon. The loanee picked up a negative points total in Monday night’s defeat at West Ham United, as Brentford lost their fifth match from six.
Yet they’re one of only a half-dozen teams currently guaranteed some Gameweek 29 action, where he’ll be supplying Ivan Toney (£8.2m) away to Burnley.
The one time they didn’t recently lose, at Wolves, Reguilon’s assist helped him to 12 points before providing again versus Liverpool. It’s consistent with his two full seasons at Spurs, a time of two goals and 10 assists from 48 starts.
Indeed, he ended 2021/22 as the fourth-best defender for minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI, 284.1). If non-Free Hit 29 managers can handle their nasty-looking other matches, locking in Reguilon could prove beneficial.
OTHER NAMES
Elsewhere, the case weakens. Newcastle’s previously superb defence has pathetically slid into calamity. Five autumn clean sheets from seven continued last season’s solidity yet, from Gameweek 15, they’ve allowed the most goals (31), shots on target (86), big chances (44) and expected goals (xGC, 32.91). The last one of those isn’t even close.
At Chelsea, clean sheets are rare and fixtures looks tricky. Malo Gusto (£4.2m) is a bargain while Reece James (£5.3m) is injured, with Levi Colwill (£4.7m) slightly more and differential Ben Chilwell (£5.4m) around to prove why he was so highly-selected at the start.
Providing brilliant value for money is Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.2m) and his regular returns. Since Gameweek 8, no team has kept more clean sheets than Everton (eight) and only Arsenal have allowed fewer big chances (32). The young centre-back has scored two times in his last four but is held back by a tricky shift in upcoming opponents.
Finally, Manchester City. Do you want to play some roulette? Kyle Walker (£5.5m) started each of their first 20 but was suddenly benched for three of the latest six. Ruben Dias (£5.5m) is prone to the occasional rotation, whilst Nathan Ake (£5.1m) was meant to be nailed-on during Josko Gvardiol‘s (£4.8m) injury but was immediately on the sidelines in the 1-0 win over Brentford.
Owning a Man City defender is an extremely frustrating experience, albeit one that can bring FPL rewards to Estupinan sellers.
