This article series reviews the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We also identify the top expected goal involvement (xGI) performers.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
The Premier League’s top three – Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City – boast the highest xG totals over the last six matches.
The Gunners have been particularly ruthless, scoring a division-high 26 goals, exceeding their xG by 10.1.
This proficiency in front of goal has been achieved with centre-forwards Gabriel Jesus (£7.8m) and Eddie Nketiah (£5.1m) either absent or starting from the bench.
Instead, Kai Havertz (7.2m) or Leandro Trossard (£6.5m) have successfully led the line.
ARSENAL’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW28 (BRE) | GW27 (shu) | GW26 (NEW) | GW25 (bur) | GW24 (whu) | GW23 (LIV) | |
| xG | 1.28 | 2.31 | 2.86 | 2.36 | 3.59 | 3.5 |
| Goals scored | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Starting striker | Havertz | Havertz | Havertz | Trossard | Trossard | Havertz |
Another club making the most of their opportunities is Newcastle United.
Eddie Howe’s troops aren’t impressing on the xG front, but they have been incredibly efficient in front of goal, overperforming their xG by 6.8.
In contrast, Everton’s xG underperformance is a concern, as they lead the way for profligacy (-4.32). That lack of cutting edge in attack has been a particular problem at Goodison Park.
EVERTON’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW28 (mun) | GW27 (WHU) | GW26 (bha) | GW25 (CRY) | GW24 (mci) | GW23 (TOT) | |
| xG | 1.61 | 2.73 | 0.29 | 1.74 | 0.32 | 2.62 |
| Goals scored | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
“You can’t say every week about xG because it’s through the roof again. You have to go and score a goal. I’m frustrated because we’re doing good stuff. Too many games have got away from us at Goodison. We can’t keep creating chances and not killing a game off.
“The pressure is on us now to score goals. I can’t keep standing here and talking about xG. We create golden chances, we don’t take them and they had two chances and scored them both.” – Sean Dyche reacting to Everton’s 1-3 loss to West Ham in Gameweek 27
Given that Toffees’ underperformance, Bournemouth’s run of fixtures after the international break (EVE/CRY/lut) look good for clean sheets.
The same applies to Chelsea, who face Burnley, Sheffield United and Everton in the next four Gameweeks.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
