The best budget FPL defenders for the run-in

Six Gameweeks remain in this Fantasy Premier League (FPL) campaign, with chip strategies well underway. However, as recent Wildcard activators will know, some of the best budget defenders have suddenly lost appeal.

Jamaal Lascelles (£3.8m) has a long-term knee injury, Chris Richards (£3.9m) is hurt, Jakub Kiwior (£4.4m) is back to being an Arsenal substitute and it could be similar for Conor Bradley (£4.3m) once Liverpool team-mate Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) returns.

According to LiveFPL, over 80% of managers still have a Bench Boost chip to use, where cheap assets are important.

So let’s check out the most buyable defenders that cost £4.5m and under, focusing on Double Gameweeks 34 and 37.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 34

Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.3m)

As this price bracket’s highest-scoring defender, it’s unsurprising to see the Everton centre-back in 19% of top 100k squads. He even started at just £4.0m.

Saturday’s clean sheet versus Burnley is the Toffees’ 10th of this season, which only Arsenal have bettered. None of them arrived until Gameweek 8 but they’ve more than made up for the slow start, as Sean Dyche’s side currently have the league’s fourth-best overall record for preventing goals (42), big chances (61) and shots on target (130):

Furthermore, Branthwaite has added a pair of recent goals to such resilience, so the prospect of Double Gameweek 34 soon being followed by a singular Gameweek 37 at home to Sheffield United will increase his ownership further.

Daniel Munoz (£4.5m)

Yet our Season Ticker concludes that Crystal Palace have the most attractive Double Gameweek 34 fixtures, at home to both West Ham United and Newcastle United. Then again, these two recently played out a seven-goal thriller that truly showcased their ‘attack is the best form of defence’ mindsets.

Before arriving in January, Munoz netted 13 times in his final season-and-a-half at Genk. He’s not done so for the Eagles but still seems more of an attacking threat than fellow wing-back Tyrick Mitchell (£4.5m).

Since Munoz’s Gameweek 23 debut, a comparison with Mitchell

Interestingly, Palace are amongst the best half-dozen defences in several areas. Their expected goals conceded (xGC) of 44.26 is the fourth-lowest so far.

Illia Zabarnyi (£4.5m)

Another popular pick for active managers is Bournemouth’s Zabarnyi. Bought by over 400k heading into Double Gameweek 28, he rewarded them by scoring and, two matches later, securing a clean sheet.

He’s probably worth hanging onto for Double 34 but potential buyers may not see much hope in trips to Aston Villa and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Nevertheless, he still has the edge over centre-back colleague Marcos Senesi (£4.4m) – someone with three goals but a recent injury.

Max Kilman (£4.5m)

Not that Wolves are banking on clean sheets either. One has been achieved in 10 matches but they play a couple of times in Double 34, presenting Kilman with more opportunities to bag a third goal in 2023/24.

Even those managers intending to Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 won’t be deterred by an end-of-season mid-table clash with Crystal Palace.

Of course, having extra money to secure Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.7m) would be ideal, should he shake off a minor calf problem. A defender playing as a winger, he’s scored twice in four outings and registered four big chances.

Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m)

Is it safe to mention him yet? Over 650k managers watched in horror as Brentford’s wing-back was sent off in the eighth minute of Blank Gameweek 29. Burnley won 2-1, meaning he ended on minus three points.

In fact, it’s already been an eventful loan spell for Reguilon. A pair of Saturday assists means his seven starts have yielded five in total, alongside the aforementioned red card.

Even so, those who are willing to forgive have mixed feelings about his upcoming fixtures. No Double Gameweeks at all but a nice run of individual matches.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 37

Malo Gusto (£4.3m)

Looking ahead, none of Double Gameweek 37 has officially been confirmed at the time of writing but the outstanding three matches can only really fit into that one midweek gap.

It was announced last week that, additionally, the Chelsea v Spurs postponement from EFL Cup weekend will form Double 35, giving assets from both teams six fixtures during the final four Gameweeks.

That’s enough of a reason to pursue Chelsea right-back Gusto, despite the slightly distant threat of Reece James (£5.3m). Although the Blues have conceded a poor 21 times in the nine matches since their last successful shut-out – only Sheffield United have fewer of them since Gameweek 7 ended – he has five assists from 17 starts.

Micky van de Ven (£4.4m)

As for Spurs’ two doubles, we saw further proof on Sunday that centre-back van de Ven has goal-scoring capabilities. His second strike of the season was a left-footed rocket from just inside the box, although five of his defensive team-mates have had more penalty area touches (nine) than the 22-year-old.

However, what he offers over Pedro Porro (£5.9m) and Destiny Udogie (£5.0m) is saved money. Managers may want Spurs coverage for their quantity of fixtures rather than quality – a side with two clean sheets from 22 that’s about to face Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City – so buying van de Ven allows precious money to go elsewhere.

Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.1m)

Sticking with cheap Dutch defenders, Brighton and Hove Albion’s van Hecke has started 21 consecutive league matches. With that in mind, the prospect of facing Burnley in Gameweek 33, Bournemouth in Gameweek 35 and two others in Double 37 is very appealing.

You see, the Seagulls may have been the final team to secure a clean sheet but five of them have arrived in their last dozen matches. Over this campaign, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest attempts (383) and shots on target (132).

Add this to goalless van Hecke having the joint-fifth most headed attempts (13) of all defenders, he could prove to become a very shrewd investment.

Dan Burn (£4.5m)

Meanwhile, one of last season’s outstanding backlines has fallen apart over recent months. Newcastle kept a surprise clean sheet in Gameweek 32 but still have the league’s worst xGC since Gameweek 15 (39.40). 15 of these 17 matches brought xGC numbers ranging from 1.27 to an eye-watering 7.27.

But the Magpies have a particularly enticing end to the season, fixture-wise. Sheffield United, Burnley, Double 37, then Brentford.

The huge height of Burn has brought two goals and four big chances so far, whilst he should be a nailed-on starter now that Lascelles, Sven Botman (£4.5m) and Tino Livramento (£4.0m) are all injured.

Harry Maguire (£4.2m)

Finally, the eighth-best defender for shots inside the box (18), where the seven above have all played far more minutes.

Maguire racked up three big chances in just one match against Fulham in Gameweek 26, one of which went in. Should injuries secure his place in Manchester United’s starting XI, the England international is about to begin a nice-looking fixture run that culminates with two home clashes in Double Gameweek 37.

That’s ideal for a late Bench Boost but less so is the team’s shocking defensive stats. Erik ten Hag’s lot have allowed the second-most efforts (554) and the third-most shots inside the box (365). Not only that, their 58.22 xGC is the third-worst. Relegation battlers Burnley better them in all three categories.

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