Should FPL managers keep or sell Bruno Fernandes?

It’s a volatile time in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) transfer market, with many players quickly rising or falling in price. Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) could be about to drop for a second time, having blanked in all three Manchester United appearances.

However, whilst his initial 1.7m owners will rightly feel disappointed with this start, the full story isn’t quite as straightforward.

During this fairly popular Wildcard window, we ask whether managers should keep faith in the Portuguese playmaker or instead abandon him for assets with rapidly increasing price tags.

PREVIOUS STATS

Fernandes is an established Fantasy name, ending with at least 17 attacking returns in all four full seasons. He even reached 16 after arriving midway through 2019/20.

This fast start was followed by a phenomenal 2020/21, where 18 goals and 14 assists allowed him to end as FPL’s top-scorer with 244 points. The attacking midfielder began 2021/22 at a hefty £12.0m, putting his current price in perspective.

What will help with the data below is remembering his consistent, underlying numbers.

He always finishes inside the top two for chances created, is usually the same for setting up big ones and often combines this with a top-ten placing for goal attempts – although many come from a distance.

EARLY 24/25 STATS

Because Fernandes was located as a false nine in Man United’s first couple of matches, his initial creativity ranks low. Three chances created, one of which was deemed to be big.

Instead, he’s produced eight attempts and three shots on target which, although not challenging the pace-setters, is team-leading.

Owners are very aware of his two big misses from Gameweek 1.

Both were shot straight at Bernd Leno (£5.0m) and now contribute to Fernandes being the league’s biggest expected goal involvement (xGI) underachiever so far (-2.12).

It’s early days, of course. Once Rasmus Hojlund (£6.9m) recovers from a hamstring injury and Joshua Zirkzee (£7.0m) is fully integrated, we’ll see Fernandes revert to his normal ‘number ten’ role. This is what happened against Liverpool in Gameweek 3.

Above: Fernandes’ shot map from 2023/24 (left), compared to the start of 2024/25 (right)

It’s also worth remembering that Fernandes would have at least had an assist in Gameweek 2, were it not for Zirkzee’s on-the-line offside touch.

Perhaps the bigger long-term concern is Man United as a team. Last season was their lowest league finish since 1990, scoring just 57 times.

And we’re already at a stage where they’re fifth-last for attempts (33), Southampton being the only side with fewer goals.

Alternatively, the Red Devils’ nine big chances look more favourable, as does being fifth for expected goals (xG, 5.22).

FIXTURES

What also offers hope to Fernandes’ owners is their upcoming fixtures. Over the next 10 Gameweeks, Man United rank third on our Season Ticker.

Those without the almost 30-year-old may even think it’s a good time to Wildcard him in.

After all, he’s a penalty-taker with a particularly good record versus Aston Villa, bagging seven goals throughout 10 previous clashes. Then again, he’s remarkably still without any from 12 meetings with West Ham United. Gameweek 9 gives him another chance to break his duck.

ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS

In a mass chase to either squeeze in premium duo Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) or make the most of appealing mid-priced assets, what holds Fernandes back is his awkward price point.

He and Martin Odegaard (£8.4m) are the only two midfielders who sit between £7.6m and £9.4m.

For around £1.0m less, there’s the in-form Luis Diaz (£7.6m) and an under-the-radar Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m). They already have four and two attacking returns respectively.

Go a little bit further and you reach fellow penalty-taker Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m), where Brentford have a brilliant-looking run from Gameweek 6.

Maybe Fernandes isn’t even the best Man United option. Last season, Alejandro Garnacho (£6.4m) started all matches from Gameweek 11 onwards, ending as FPL’s second-best midfielder for penalty area shots (81) and second-best overall for touches inside the box (270).

He was restricted to cameos in the opening two matches and found time to have a big chance in both, also assisting a Zirkzee winner.

SUMMARY

With great FPL pedigree, penalty duties and promising upcoming fixtures, there’s no reason to lose faith in creative king Fernandes yet – and certainly not before a fixture against Southampton.

Not only that but Manuel Ugarte‘s (£5.0m) arrival presents United with something they haven’t had for a while: a defensive midfielder still in the prime of his career.

Could his capture further release the handbrake, allowing Fernandes to operate with more freedom from the middle?

Keeping Fernandes is more a question about your own team structure. With mid-priced and £10.0m+ midfielders currently being collected by the Fantasy community, the Maia-born talisman is neither of these and any further drops in value will continue to cause damage.

Taking him out ahead of Gameweek 4 seems ill-advised, either way. If he underwhelms against the sorry Saints, there is at least the option of losing him from Gameweeks 5-7 and reassessing while Ugarte, Zirkzee and Hojlund are bedded in further. A really good run then follows, with four home matches and a trip to Ipswich to come in a six-Gameweek period.

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