FPL Gameweek 4: To Wildcard or not to Wildcard?

Heading into Gameweek 4 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), we hear from FPL Family’s Sam about whether or not this is the right time to activate Wildcard chips.

International breaks can be a funny time for FPL managers. It’s usually one extreme or the other. They’re either Wildcarding in an attempt to catch price rises and avoid the falls, or using the time to switch off and not think about their team until the final international ball is kicked.

Yet there is also another type of manager, one that I currently am. Someone happy with their team, with the notable exceptions of Dean Henderson (£4.5m) and Valentin Barco (£4.0m) – neither of whom need immediately dealing with. Especially with the former about to face Leicester City. Looking at the team mostly brings content. So why do I still have a nagging twitch to press the Wildcard button?

Deciding when such a moment is right can be a difficult one for managers. Sometimes it’s easy – for example, when you open the app to a sea of red and yellow flags. Maybe you open the app and see an entire team about to drop in value, or full of players you don’t want. That’s not the case for me right now.

Even so, I look at the long list of players I don’t own. The likes of Mohamed Salah (£12.6m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) and even Joao Pedro (£5.7m) are names who are continuing to rise. Every £0.1m increase makes owning each later on a little bit more difficult. It makes owning all of them even trickier. So the fear of missing out becomes a factor.

It’s an interesting dilemma, choosing whether to weaken team value by delaying such inevitable purchases or act now whilst losing a precious chip.

TO WILDCARD OR NOT?

The decision not to activate felt obvious on Sunday evening. However, looking at transfer trends is scaring me. Salah, Joao Pedro, Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m) and several other players I will soon bring in are already hugely popular. As such, they’re rising in price.

Now is where the dilemma begins. If I continue with my original plan: hold my nerve, play my game and use free transfers to continually build a squad, then I risk not being able to afford some of those assets later. But the flip side is that a number of my current players have also risen. Perhaps it’s less of a worry than first feared.

In usual circumstances, my Wildcard decisions wouldn’t even consider price changes. This season feels different, though. I am super aware that I don’t yet own Salah. He was a tough squeeze at £12.5m and, at this rate, I will have to make even bigger forfeits later on.

THE SACRIFICES

If I keep going with my one planned change over this international break, this will be my team heading into Gameweek 4. Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m) makes way for Alexander-Arnold.

The resulting money in the bank would then allow Emile Smith-Rowe (£5.6m) or Morgan Rogers (£5.1m) to become Mbeumo in Gameweek 5. Alongside this is a long-term ambition for Alexander Isak (£8.5m) and Rodrigo Muniz (£6.1m) to soon be Dominic Solanke (£7.5m) and Joao Pedro, or potentially even Kai Havertz (£8.1m).

Alternatively, if I Wildcard to grab Salah, a number of picks I really want to keep would need to be sold. For example, big at the back has been working brilliantly but Salah suddenly means no Pedro Porro (£5.5m) or William Saliba (£6.0m). A lack of Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) is something else that I feel very uncomfortable about.

A potential Wildcard draft would potentially look like this:

Yes, this team gives me the Salah, Trent and Haaland dream trifecta. But it feels like there are a lot of sacrifices.

THE JOTA FACTOR

I think a big part of my Wildcard wobble concerns Diogo Jota (£7.6m). Had the Portuguese international joined in with the Gameweek 3 goals, I don’t think I’d even be considering this chip. Likewise, if I owned Luis Diaz (£7.6m) instead.

Watching Liverpool destroy Manchester United in Gameweek 3 whilst only owning Jota’s blank was horrible. Especially as our new Fantasy Football Scout app showed my rank falling with every incoming attacking return and clean sheet.

At such an early stage of the season, I don’t look closely at my rank but do pay attention to arrow colours. That Sunday afternoon clash turned a huge green one into a small red. Not wanting to feel that ever again is a driving factor, as the Reds are at home to Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. Of course, buying Trent with my free transfer might stop that feeling of dread.

For me, choosing to Wildcard now would be a decision driven by fear rather than need or desire. Therefore, I think I’m going to hold my nerve for at least another week or two. If Gameweek 6 comes along and Salah still feels essential, then it’s worth a relook. Especially as Arsenal’s positive fixture swing will ensure that Saka can’t be the sacrifice.

As always, this could all change if injuries occur over the International break. But right now I will hold – well, apart from Gvardiol transforming into Trent.

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