We’ve had another refresh of The Watchlist ahead of Gameweek 7 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
Manchester City’s favourable run of matches sees a few of their players rise but Crystal Palace’s poor form and deteriorating fixtures spell bad news for the Eagles’ assets.
ABOUT THE WATCHLIST
In The Watchlist, we take a look at the stand-out Fantasy Premier League (FPL) options over the medium term.
This is in contrast to the Scout Picks, which deals only in the upcoming Gameweek.
There are fewer ‘kneejerk’ moves because we’re selecting players for their prospects over a period of six Gameweeks or so.
Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as club injuries, form (last four Gameweeks), forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.
Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous Gameweek or if they are a new entry into the tables.
The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:
Traditionally, we tend to avoid club duplication in each position unless a) there’s a compelling case for a double-up due to fixtures/form or b) there’s a much cheaper alternative to highlight.
For instance, Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung-min (£9.9m) and Brennan Johnson (£6.4m) both make the midfielders’ list.
THE WATCHLIST: LATEST STANDINGS
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THE WATCHLIST: MAJOR CHANGES
FODEN ENTERS WITH A CAVEAT…
How’s your appetite for a punt? Trying to second-guess Pep Guardiola is a mug’s game, which is enough to put many people off every Man City asset bar Erling Haaland (£15.3m) and maybe Josko Gvardiol (£5.9m).
But the lure to throw caution to the wind and gamble on a City player is always strong at the start of a good fixture run.
Gameweek 7 opponents Fulham might be the reigning champions’ toughest fixture of the next five Gameweeks but they were thrashed 5-1 and 4-0 last season. Three sides without a clean sheet to their names follow the visit of the Cottagers.
It was a matter of when rather than if Phil Foden (£9.2m) would appear on The Watchlist again. This was a player that amassed 230 points last season, more than even Haaland managed in not too many more starts (33 v 29).
Is Gameweek 7 too soon, given that he hasn’t started a Premier League match? Potentially but we’re always looking for little clues as to his ‘in’ into the side – and the midweek win over Slovan Bratislava may have been it. Bright enough in a second-half cameo at Newcastle, he was Man of the Match in Slovakia in midweek. A goal and an assist were registered, too.
Slovan Bratislava might not be an acid test for form but other factors – Ilkay Gundogan‘s (£6.5m) poor performance on Tyneside, Kevin De Bruyne‘s (£9.5m) ongoing absence, the likelihood that we won’t see Rico Lewis (£4.7m) as an out-and-out ‘eight’ many weeks – leads us to gamble on Foden.
He’s relatively low down on our Watchlist, however, and carrying the rotation risk tag to boot.
…AS DOES LEWIS
The same goes for Lewis. He might not even feature this weekend, as the only City player to start each of their last three competitive matches.
But the rave reviews from fans, pundits and (crucially) manager continue. City’s Philippe Lahm does a bit of everything, on the ball and off it. More importantly for FPL managers, the attacking threat is significant too from that inverted role: there was an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 1.63 on Tuesday, for instance.
The question has to be asked: even with a benching or two in the next six Gameweeks, which will likely happen, will many £4.5m midfielders outscore him over that period?
We’re sticking him behind the likes of the more nailed Leif Davis (£4.5m), Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m) and Vitalii Mykolenko (£4.3m) in our Watchlist for now, all of whom have good fixtures. In Davis’s case, no defender has supplied more key passes or big chances this season.
Fantasy pariah Ederson (£5.5m) also enters our Watchlist. Rate My Team (RMT) thinks he’s the top-scoring goalkeeper of the next six Gameweeks – where have we heard that one before?
The difference this year could be the Bonus Points System (BPS) changes. Not a single goalkeeper this season has got one bonus point without keeping a clean sheet or – as Ederson did – providing an assist. Is this the campaign in which the premium goalkeepers fight back?
PALACE OUT
Even if Palace’s form had been good in the first six Gameweeks, the chances are that we would have at least relegated them down The Watchlist.
As it is, they’re 18th in the Premier League table. This is despite them being third on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty in the opening six Gameweeks.
As we mentioned in Saturday’s Scout Notes, Eberechi Eze (£6.8m) will have his day in FPL again. The nailed starter status, the set-piece duties, a share of penalties and his tendency to shoot on sight are all strings to his bow. The 90-minute man status will render him a more attractive option over Christmas especially. But we’re only just into October.
The fixtures aren’t terrible in the next six Gameweeks but they’re part of a longer poor run. In fact, nine of their next 11 matches are against sides in the top half of the table. That includes Nottingham Forest and Fulham, admittedly, two clubs who might not be in the upper reaches come May.
An unsettled, out-of-sorts defence (the back three has been altered every Gameweek) costs Daniel Munoz (£4.9m) and Dean Henderson (£4.5m) their places. Henderson’s heroics helped the Eagles to a clean sheet in Gameweek 5 but that was merely papering over the cracks.
And with the balance in the attack looking askew, how long before Oliver Glasner decides it’s either Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.4m) or Eddie Nketiah (£5.9m) in attack rather than both? Something has to change soon, so we’ve jettisoned Mateta here too.
OTHER NEW ENTRIES
Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) is the only midfielder who has had more shots in the box than Brennan Johnson this season.
With Dejan Kulusevski‘s (£6.2m) future seemingly in central midfield, Wilson Odobert (£5.4m) out and even Son Heung-min struggling, there’s not much competition out wide at Spurs. Even when Son returns, it’ll be Timo Werner (£6.2m) making way.
Looking confident and netting in four successive matches, Johnson is about to face Brighton’s high defensive line (how many times have you heard that this week…). None of Spurs’ following opponents have kept more than one clean sheet.
A beautifully timed haul against Aston Villa precedes a favourable run of fixtures for Liam Delap (£5.6m).
The underlying numbers aren’t great (nine shots all season) but bear in mind that he didn’t have a single effort against Liverpool and Man City in the first two Gameweeks. The shot volume should, in theory, increase with more accommodating defences to come.
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