FPL Q&A: Keep or sell Trent, best cheap defs + is Haaland essential?

Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 29.

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Q: Is Erling Haaland ‘essential’?

(via @Finn_FPL)

A: With the usual captaincy option Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) not featuring this week, the race is wide open with Chris Wood (£7.3m, 32%) and Erling Haaland (£14.7m, 30%) currently leading the captaincy poll on this website. Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m, 13%) and Justin Kluivert (£6.2m, 7%) are some way off.

So, first let’s look at the pros and cons of Haaland. There’s already an excellent article on this subject I would encourage you to read but let’s take our own look at the data here.

Haaland has had 24 shots in the box since Gameweek 19, which is fewer than Yoane Wissa (£6.5m), Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), Raul Jimenez (£5.5m) etc. But, 13 of those 24 shots in the box have been big chances, which is a league-leading total. I think that’s the most relevant stat here. Jimenez may have had 37 shots in the box but only nine of them were big chances. That shows the difference between the two forwards.

I really like the six-Gameweek rolling average table from Marc’s article. It shows that Haaland’s non-penalty xG did plummet around Gameweek 19 but it is trending back upwards now, with an average of 0.62 as of Gameweek 28. That said, it is still some way off his staggering average of 0.96 in Gameweek 14.

Now let’s look at the opposition for Haaland this week.

As the above table shows, the Seagulls averaged a mins/xGC of 62.5 in the first half of the campaign.

Brighton have tightened up significantly in the second half of the season, the xGC figure improving to 88.8.

Fabian Hurzeler was quoted as saying that he has had to change his system due to the personnel available but they are capable of a capitulation still.

The data in the image above, which includes the 7-0 thrashing at the hands of Forest, shows that Brighton are ranked fourth for non-penalty xGC over the last four Gameweeks. So, they are not an easy fixture by any means. 

Ipswich, meanwhile, sit 18^th for xGC. 

Now let’s look at some of Wood’s data over the last six Gameweeks. Keep in mind, though, that he has defied his underlying numbers all season.

Over the last half-dozen Gameweeks, Wood is ranked eighth amongst all players for expected goal involvement (3.49) but a large chunk of this came in that one fixture against Brighton where he bagged a hat-trick. 

Forest have racked up just 7.73 xG over the last six Gameweeks, which puts them at 15^th. A large chunk of that has come from set plays (2.12). 

Man City have racked up 8.85 xG over the same period.

So it’s essentially backing a poor attack against a poor defence in the case of Wood, or backing a good attack against a good defence in the case of Haaland.

I do not think the Norwegian is essential by any means. A lot depends on the combination of players. Would you have to go for Cole Palmer (£10.9m) and Wood v Haaland + Ethan Nwaneri (£4.6m)? The first combination does appeal more.

Also, you should give consideration to the captaincy for Gameweek 30. I think if you plan to captain Haaland in both Gameweeks 29 and 30, then trying to shoehorn him in makes more sense. If not, and it requires multiple hits, then I would just avoid and go with Wood instead. 

Q: What’s your preferred sub-£5.5m defender for two weeks? I’m looking at Ola Aina, one of the other Forest defenders, Milos Kerkez and Rayan Ait-Nouri.

Q. Who are the best cheap defenders (£4.4m or below) to enable Erling Haaland for a short-term keep?

(via @alexwaterbaby and @FplNordic)

A: I think the best defensive picks for Gameweeks 29 and 30 are Nikola Milenkovic (£4.8m), Ola Aina (£5.3m), Milos Kerkez (£5.1m) and Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.8m).

I think Kerkez would be top of the list for me with two home games coming. The fact that he’s suspended for the FA Cup means that he definitely starts in Gameweek 30 as well.

Between the Forest defenders and Ait-Nouri, it’s a close call. A look at the team attack data table above shows that Forest’s next two opponents Ipswich Town and Manchester United are ranked 18^th and 16^th for non-penalty xG.

Meanwhile, Wolves’ next two opponents, Southampton and West Ham United, are ranked 19^th and 17^th. 

The obvious answer is to back the better defence in Forest but the underlying data shows that Nuno Espirito Santo’s boys are ranked 14^th for non-penalty xGC over the last six Gameweeks, while Wolves are ranked sixth. You couple this with the fact that the wing-back system allows Nouri more license to get forward then I think it tilts it towards the Wolves’ asset for me.

Looking at picks at £4.4m or below, Neco Williams (£4.4m) is the standout. He has started every game since Gameweek 15 and Nuno is not one to tinker with a winning combination.

However, we need to consider the schedule. After Forest return from the international break, they play Brighton in the FA Cup before the Gameweek 30 fixture against Man Utd and then Villa on the weekend. Traditionally, Nuno has rotated his full-backs in the cup but given the greater stakes now, could we see Williams feature against Brighton and benched against Manchester United? The league is still the priority for Nuno and I think Williams does start in Gameweek 30 but there is a risk there.

Since you can’t stretch to Nelson Semedo (£4.5m), I like Emmanuel Agbadou (£4.0m).

The rotation risk is too great with Rico Lewis (£4.3m). Vitalii Mykolenko (£4.4m) has a poor fixture in Gameweek 30. None of the West Ham assets really appeal. 

Q: Is it worth taking a -4 hit to transfer Trent Alexander-Arnold to Josko Gvardiol? This would give me an extra player for Gameweek 29. The plan is to Wildcard in Gameweek 31.

(via In Klopp I Trust)

A: At the time of writing, we do not have clarity on the severity of Trent Alexander-Arnold’s (£7.5m) injury. If Arne Slot indicates that the right-back will return after the international break, I would hold on to him. 

I think if the Dutchman is non-committal on Trent’s length of absence, I would get rid for Josko Gvardiol (£5.9m) with the fixture in Gameweek 30 particularly attractive. 

Q: How much of Cole Palmer’s loss of form is down to the absence of Nicolas Jackson? If Jackson is back after the international break, would it be bad timing to sell Palmer in Gameweek 29/30?

(via Sir Matt Bugsby)

A: Like Haaland, Palmer’s underlying numbers are discussed in detail in this excellent piece. 

There’s no doubt that his data is trending downwards and he has suffered without Chelsea’s first-choice personnel, such as Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) and Noni Madueke (£6.0m). But it’s also down to teams figuring out Enzo Maresca’s tactics a bit. 

There are not many players I would look to move Palmer on for. If it’s for Kluivert and it allows a move to Haaland, that makes sense. But I still back the player to come good over the next few weeks.

Q: Best Dango Ouattara replacement below £6.0m?

(via @FPL_Gazza2000)

A: The Scout team has done some excellent data work and discuss most of the candidates in this piece.

If you don’t own Kluivert, that’s the no-brainer obvious move I would do in a heartbeat. I’m not a big fan of the Forest midfielders; they’re not a very attacking side and the points are often shared around.

Despite the fixture against Man City this week, I think I would favour the Brighton midfielders – Yankuba Minteh (£5.0m) or Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) – over Ouattara. I wouldn’t do it for a hit, though. In such a case, I would just play Dango this week and look to move him on for Ismaila Sarr (£5.6m) in Gameweek 30. 

We discuss these topics and more in the Gameweek 29 edition of the FPL Wire. You can check it out here.

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