Gameweek 12 presents various transfer dilemmas for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
Based on fixtures, form, injuries and bans, these players are currently experiencing considerable transfer activity out (TO(R), below) and in (TI(R), below).
But whether it’s a good idea remains open to debate.
Here, we share our thoughts on who to buy, keep and sell in Gameweek 12.
We’ll try and avoid repetition with previous weeks. For example, Bryan Mbeumo (£8.5m) was a ‘buy’ last week and Tijjani Reijnders (£5.5m) a ‘sell’, so we’ll not cover those two again.
JARROD BOWEN
Jarrod Bowen’s (£7.7m) performances have played a big part in West Ham United’s recent revival under Nuno Espirito Santo.
But from a Fantasy perspective, he has somehow blanked in consecutive wins over Newcastle United and Burnley, amassing only four points. Before this, Bowen’s FPL goal involvement figure was 57% this season.
Owners will feel somewhat unfortunate, then, especially as he was denied an assist for Tomas Soucek’s (£5.7m) late goal against Newcastle, before the frustration was compounded when Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.3m) took a tap-in away from him on Saturday.
Inevitably, sales have ensued, and Bowen is now the fourth-most discarded forward ahead of Gameweek 12, with over 49,000 managers opting to part ways with him. This is before any international matches have even kicked off.
Is this the correct decision? It’s perhaps too early in the break, but considering that West Ham’s schedule is set to worsen after, it may indeed prove to be the right call.
West Ham’s next opponents, Bournemouth, have conceded only 18 goals in 24 home league matches since the start of last season, which is the joint-fewest of any team, tied with Arsenal. Following that, they will face Liverpool, Manchester United, Brighton and Hove Albion, Aston Villa and Manchester City, with all but one of those teams currently positioned in the top half of the table.
Bowen shouldn’t be entirely dismissed – retaining an FPL-proven player who consistently plays 90 minutes from a team not competing in Europe isn’t a poor strategy, particularly with the fixtures coming thick and fast in November/December. Nevertheless, if you have the opportunity to switch to either Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.1m) or Igor Thiago (£6.3m), it probably makes sense to do so.
VERDICT: SELL
JEREMY DOKU
Pep Guardiola’s evolution of Manchester City is well underway, with Sunday’s 3-0 win over Liverpool a masterclass of a performance.
On the back of that rampant victory, which takes City’s goal tally up to a league-high 23, the Cityzens contribute three of the current top 12 most popular transfer targets.
Jeremy Doku (£6.4m) leads the way, with over 106,000 transfers in so far.
At only £6.4m, it’s difficult to question the value the winger could offer in midfield, but there is some need for caution when considering Doku.
Firstly, the Belgian international has been benched in two of City’s most recent five league matches, with Savinho (£6.9m) preferred on the left wing against Aston Villa and Brentford. Even when he started during this timeframe, he’s averaged only 67.7 minutes per appearance.
Given City’s upcoming schedule, which consists of 10 matches across all competitions in November and December, it is reasonable to assume that Doku will be a substitute in at least a few of those games.
Additionally, Sunday’s strike against Liverpool was his first Premier League goal since January.
Doku’s recent displays have reminded us of his qualities and hinted at a new potency as an FPL asset; however, while there is clear upside to chase, a trip to Newcastle United appears less than inviting following the break.
Therefore, while his small army of owners will no doubt be happy to hold Doku, it’s probably a situation for the rest of us to observe from afar, at least for now.
VERDICT: KEEP
DAN BURN
Dan Burn’s (£5.2m) zero-pointer and subsequent one-match ban for two bookable offences against Brentford has unquestionably had an impact on the market.
Indeed, over 83,000 managers have already joined the exodus from the England international.
Burn is undoubtedly one of Eddie Howe’s favourites, but with Lewis Hall (£5.2m) and Tino Livramento (£4.9m) nearing full fitness, as well as Malick Thiaw’s (£4.9m) impact at centre-back, competition is set to heat up in Newcastle’s backline.
The Magpies’ away form is another concern, with their winless run on the road in the Premier League extending to 10 games.
Realistically, then, the only match during this run where you would be truly confident of a clean sheet is the Burnley home match in Gameweek 15:
Considering the defenders from Arsenal, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, as well as Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m), are more attractive options, the choice to sell Burn ahead of Gameweek 12 likely has merit.
VERDICT: SELL
DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI
Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) is at the forefront of many Fantasy managers’ minds this week.
Indeed, the Hungarian is the most popular Liverpool target ahead of their Gameweek 12 fixture swing, with over 54,000 transfers in.
As Arne Slot’s standout performer this season, Szoboszlai represents a solid acquisition for several reasons.
To begin with, he is a regular starter at a very decent price. He also has excellent fixtures and is heavily involved in set-piece situations. His numerous avenues for scoring points are attractive, too: Szoboszlai has accumulated defensive contribution (DefCon) points in four matches this season and, over the last six Gameweeks, he ranks third for shots (nine) and second for chances created (12) at Liverpool.
New owners ought to be realistic with their expectations, though.
Szoboszlai hasn’t taken any shots in the box over the last four Gameweeks, even though he has been positioned in a more advanced role close to Salah on Liverpool’s right flank. He is also on four bookings – one more yellow card and he’ll receive a one-match ban.
Furthermore, there is the possibility of him at times playing out of position at right-back in November/December.
Still, considering the uncertainty in Liverpool’s other attacking positions, which we discussed in much greater detail here, it is clear that Szoboszlai can be a decent set-and-forget option in light of the Reds’ favourable upcoming fixtures.
VERDICT: BUY – BUT BE AWARE HE IS ON FOUR BOOKINGS
NICO O’REILLY
Defenders let many of us down in Gameweek 11, with eight of the top 10 most-owned options either blanking or not showing up at all.
In contrast, an assist, DefCon points and a clean sheet for Nico O’Reilly (£4.9m) against Liverpool has proved the catalyst for his rising ownership, making the England international a popular transfer target ahead of Gameweek 12.
His goal threat looks central to his appeal.
Over the last four Gameweeks, no FPL defender has racked up more shots (eight), shots in the box (seven) or penalty box touches (19). This is noteworthy considering he has only been in the starting line-up three times, so the potential for attacking returns alongside City’s clean sheets will continue while O’Reilly maintains those rates.
Above: Nico O’Reilly’s shot map over the last four Gameweeks
Furthermore, Pep Guardiola’s side are yet to lose a single Premier League match where he has started.
There is naturally a future rotation risk with summer arrival Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.8m) building up his fitness after injury. However, there is certainly work to be done for the Algerian to reclaim his spot, and many City supporters would argue that the left-back position is currently O’Reilly’s to lose. Ait-Nouri is also off to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) next month.
Nevertheless, given the hectic nature of City’s upcoming schedule, it is likely that both players, plus others such as Josko Gvardiol (£5.8m), Rico Lewis (£4.8m) and Nathan Ake (£5.3m), will receive playing time at left-back, with O’Reilly possibly favoured against tougher opposition, particularly in light of his performance against Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) on Sunday.
It therefore presents a tricky call for Fantasy managers. Considering our past experiences with ‘Pep roulette’, there is perhaps a need for caution, despite the urge to jump on O’Reilly early.
VERDICT: KEEP – POTENTIAL BUY IN GAMEWEEK 13
