Spot the Differential
17 November 2025 165 comments
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With the November international break almost over, it’s time for an early edition of our Spot the Differential column for Gameweek 12.

At the time of writing, these three players all have an ownership of 5.0% or less in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).


MATHEUS CUNHA

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £7.9m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: EVE | cry | WHU | wol | BOU

While most Fantasy managers are opting for Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£8.5m) in their pursuit of Manchester United coverage, the 4.4%-owned Matheus Cunha (£7.9m) represents a departure from the crowd.

Although he lays claim to inferior form, the Brazilian found the net against Brighton and Hove Albion in his most recent home appearance, which bodes well as Everton prepare to visit Old Trafford in Gameweek 12.

Delving into his underlying stats, only six FPL midfielders have amassed more shots than Cunha over the last six Gameweeks (14), albeit with only five of those attempts from inside the penalty box.

He also ranks second for chance involvement – behind only Fernandes – among teammates over the same period:

Cunha will certainly fancy his chances in Gameweek 12 against an Everton rearguard that has not managed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five away matches this season.

Additionally, David Moyes’ side have failed to exert any control while playing on the road, as they place 14th for minutes per expected goal conceded (xGC, 62.3), with just 39.1% possession, which is the lowest among all top-flight teams.

It suggests that United will spend the majority of Monday’s match camped in the Everton half, with significant time spent probing in and around the opposition penalty box, with Cunha’s craft and creativity from such situations a potential crucial weapon.

Fixtures against West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers (x2) and Bournemouth before the end of the year further highlight Cunha’s appeal, particularly with Mbeumo and Amad Diallo (£6.3m) off to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) next month.

KEVIN SCHADE

  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £7.0m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: bha | BUR | ars | tot | LEE

Behind Igor Thiago (£6.3m), Kevin Schade (£7.0m) has been Brentford’s most impressive FPL performer this season.

Just 11 Gameweeks in, the German has three goals and two assists to his name, having notably produced three of those attacking returns in the last four Gameweeks.

In that timeframe (Gameweeks 8-11), Schade has combined eight shots in the box and seven chances created, generating 1.78 non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI), the most of any Brentford player.

Next up for Keith Andrews’ side is an away trip to Brighton and Hove Albion in Gameweek 12. The Seagulls have recorded clean sheets in each of their last two matches against Crystal Palace and Leeds United, but before that, shipped four goals at Old Trafford.

In addition, Schade – who has produced points in four of his five home matches this season – will be encouraged by the fact that Brentford subsequently entertain Burnley, who have surrendered the second-most headed attempts in 2025/26 (43).

Schade ranked joint-fifth in the division last season for headed shots (22).

Furthermore, both Brighton and Burnley rank among the four worst sides for key passes conceded from their right flank, thereby increasing the left winger’s assist potential:

Clashes against Leeds United (h), Wolverhampton Wanderers (a) and Bournemouth (a) before the end of the year further strengthen Schade’s case as a mid-price midfielder to consider.

IBRAHIMA KONATE

  • FPL ownership: 2.7%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: NFO | whu | SUN | lee | BHA

Liverpool may have failed to keep a clean sheet in six out of their last seven league matches, but they are now about to embark on a fine run of fixtures.

Arne Slot’s side face Nottingham Forest, West Ham United, Sunderland, Leeds United (x2), Brighton and Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers before the turn of the year, with five of those encounters on home turf.

As for Konate, the Frenchman is ranked second for clearances (66), blocks (seven) and tackles (17) among Liverpool teammates in 2025/26.

He also ranks third for total defensive contributions (DefCon), behind only Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) and Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m), having hit the DefCon threshold in 45.5% of his appearances.

Moreover, Konate has actually registered more headed attempts than van Dijk over the first 11 Gameweeks, with a tally of five compared to four.

That could be important, too, with upcoming opponents Forest and West Ham having by far the worst record for goals conceded from set-pieces in 2025/26.

Admittedly, Liverpool and Konate have been some way below their best this season, but with an ownership of just 2.7%, early adopters of Konate may just be giving themselves the opportunity to bag a handy differential.

Indeed, in five home league matches this season, Liverpool have kept two clean sheets, conceded only five goals and allowed the third-fewest shots on target (13). Given that aforementioned fixture run, the early indications are that Konate could edge his way back into our affections.


165 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Taegugk Warrior
    • 8 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    2FT.
    A. Gabriel+Semenyo to O'Reilly+Mbeumo
    B.Semenyo+Wolt to Amad+Mateta
    C.Gabriel+Semenyo+Mateta to Cash+Mbeumo+Mateta (for -4)

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      A

  2. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Best option here under 5.7m?

    Sanchez dubravka
    Munoz senesi diouf gudmundsson xxxx

  3. The Philosopher
    • 6 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Surely FPL towers should give us 5 free FTs since so many players got injured during the IB? Since they're handing it out for things people can plan ahead (Afcon), these injuries are something out of everyone's control and hence warranting of 5 free FTs minimum.

    1. NZREDS
      • 13 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      That is a very valid point!

  4. The Night Trunker.
    • 3 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    The trouble with statistics and middle management positions that spew this analysis like the froth running down our streams from pesticides and other unknowns, is the lack of perception that filtrate through the human eye and cements other nuances like "gut feeling" of things likely to manifest.
    The models and AI will never get to this stage because as humans we will destroy it before they destroy us.
    I mean we have done it before already if you really think about it....

  5. BR510
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Im lost

    Pope/Dub
    Gabriel/Timber/Senesi/Andersen/Rodon
    Saka/Semenyo/Sarr/Enzo/KDH
    Haaland/Mateta/Woltemade

    1. Wolte, Enzo, Gabriel --> Welbeck, Bruno, Munoz
    2. Enzo, Semenyo, Wolte --> Bruno, Mbeumo, Guiu
    3. Other

    3FT

    Very much appreciated Thank you

    1. The Night Trunker.
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      On a cursory look , 1 easily tops 2, of your choices.
      But I think other would be the play.
      What that would need though is a deep dive.

  6. rainy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 10 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Price changes 18th November

    Rise: Muñoz 5.8

    Falls: Eyestone 3.9, Justin 3.9

    1. The Night Trunker.
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      I'm only happy when it rains.

      1. The Night Trunker.
        • 3 Years
        9 months, 2 days ago

        Why would peeps sell Eyestone.
        Corruption has no hiding place these days.

    2. nanxun
      • 4 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      Thx, R!!

      1. rainy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 10 Years
        9 months, 2 days ago

        NW, N

    3. The Philosopher
      • 6 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      Might have to buy Eyestone just for the name alone.

      1. rainy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 10 Years
        9 months, 2 days ago

        Espionage drama plot point if ever there was one.

  7. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Will u do guehi and semenyo to cash and cunha for -4?
    Or to rogers and oreilly for -4?

  8. SKENG
    • 10 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Raya
    Munoz Senesi Tarkowski Rodon
    Fernandes Sarr KDH Reijnders
    Haaland Mateta

    Dubravka Gyokeres* Gabriel* Semenyo* - 2 FTs, 0.1M ITB

    Initial plan was get Saka for Gyokeres with 2 FTs. Now I am not sure if I should use the 2 FTs to get rid of the injured players.

    A) Gyokeres & Reijnders > Saka & Guiu
    B) Gyokeres & Reijnders > Cunha & Thiago
    C) smth else??

  9. Jebiga
    • 14 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    So Gabriela and Semenyo are out for next gw?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      I’d be more worried about Gabriel than Semenyo, but happy to ditch an out of form Semenyo in any case.

    2. FFS ManU
      • 3 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      They might be out - both are currently flagged on FPL as having a 75 percent chance of playing.

    3. Kingy109
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      Maybe. Perhaps even probably. Worth waiting to see if there is any more information as neither are dropping imminently although sales will likely pick up.

  10. Sz21
    • 14 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    What would you do here especially if Gabriel is confirmed out.

    Have my WC and FH still. May WC next week.
    Sanchez.
    Timber, Gabriel, James, Andersen.
    Semenyo, Ndiaye, Saka.
    Haaland, Mateta, Woltemade.
    Dubravka, Anderson, Reijnders, Esteve.
    2ft's, 0.5m ITB.

    1. Kingy109
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      If confirmed out I'd be selling 2 from Semenyo Gabriel and Reijnders.
      Another option to consider is FH13 as your GW14 team will be ok then WC 15 or later.

    2. Guru Mediation
      • 11 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      I also have FH and WC, if the injuries are all niggles I'll FH in 12. This will also give an opportunity to trial Liverpool players Vs Forest. I also think Newcastle away will be tricky for Haaland so could spread funs by selling him on FH.

      If injuries are longer term, I think I'll WC in 12 as only 1 FT. I don't like this though as WC this week kind of forces you to perma get Liverpool players, which is risky considering how poor they've been.

      I think the FH 13 chat is mostly revolving around an expected rest for Haaland, but I think the advantage of FH 12 is that you're targeting the more difficult fixture for City

  11. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Best option for this team? 1 ft, 0.3m itb

    a. gabriel semenyo > mbeumo konate -4
    b. gabriel semenyo > mbeumo o'riley -4
    c. gabriel semenyo > vvd gakpo -4
    d. something else

    sanchez
    gabriel munoz senesi
    saka semenyo sarr enzo
    haaland mateta wolte

    dubravka vdv anderson gudmundsson

  12. FOREST FOREVER 2
    • 1 Year
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Miss those days when James Justin was essential.

    1. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      Never the same after that injury

  13. BR510
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Downgrade Woltemade to Welbeck or Semenyo to 7 mill or less mid

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      semenyo

      1. BR510
        9 months, 2 days ago

        Who then??? Thanks though

        1. SpaceCadet
          • 12 Years
          9 months, 2 days ago

          Who do you have?

          1. BR510
            9 months, 2 days ago

            Saka, Bruno, Sarr, Semenyo, KDH

            1. FPLamateur
              • 2 Years
              9 months, 2 days ago

              Rogers

              1. BR510
                9 months, 2 days ago

                Don't mind that

            2. SpaceCadet
              • 12 Years
              9 months, 1 day ago

              Rogers or enzo if he's fit

  14. Ballito
    • 3 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Already have Rice, sell Semenyo for Saka?

  15. One for All
    • 8 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    On FH:

    Already have Mbeumo

    A) Saka
    B) Bruno Fernandes

    Thanks

    1. BR510
      9 months, 2 days ago

      Bruno

  16. BR510
    9 months, 2 days ago

    1. Cunha (HAVE BRUNO), Richards
    2. Schade/(Any mid below 7.0) , Munoz

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      These are both FFS differential recommendations. Are you happy to go with differentials? Where are you ranked?

      1. BR510
        9 months, 2 days ago

        Around a mil

    2. One for All
      • 8 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      1

  17. Babit1967
    • 10 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Unfortunately only 1 ft but does this look ok for a -4, could backfire I know.

    Semenyo & Gabriel to

    Mbeumo & Virgil

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      9 months, 2 days ago

      Ok trades. Who would you play without the hit?

      1. Babit1967
        • 10 Years
        9 months, 2 days ago

        Gudmonssen & Esteve if the two are out 🙁

  18. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    9 months, 2 days ago

    Will u do guehi and semenyo to cash and cunha for -4?
    Or to rogers and oreilly for -4?

    I have guehi and gab most likely not starting and i dont want to start gudmunsson

    1. BR510
      9 months, 2 days ago

      guehi to cash and start gud, cash and other defender and get cunha in 14?

  19. BR510
    9 months, 2 days ago

    1. Rogers, Munoz
    2. Cunha, Richards - I have Bruno??

  20. boombomclap
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Guys, what do you think?

    A) Gabriel, Semenyo > Virgil, Mbeumo
    B) Gabriel, Semenyo > Rodon, Saka
    C) Gabriel, Semenyo, Enzo > Richards, Saka, Doku
    D) Hold

    Cheers!

  21. Ronnies
    • 11 Years
    9 months, 1 day ago

    Free transfer;

    Gabriel to Timber?

    A) Yes
    B) No

    I have VVD and just Saka from Arsenal with Gabriel now injured.

    Cheers.

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      9 months, 1 day ago

      A