Scout Notes
7 December 2025 50 comments
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More Premier League action to reflect on as we look back on the Gameweek 15 curtain-raiser: Aston Villa 2-1 Arsenal.

RICE AT THE MIDFIELDER SUMMIT

He’s had only six shots in the box all season, scoring just twice, and he’s delivered one attacking return in five matches.

Yet Declan Rice (£7.1m), as of Sunday night, sits top of the FPL midfielder points table.

Calafiori ban

Is Rice’s ascension an indictment of midfielders in general this season or just the new order of things, with the introduction of defensive contribution (DefCon) points? A bit of both, Clive.

This time last season, the top-scoring midfielder, Mohamed Salah (£14.0m), had 67 more points than Rice does now! Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) and Cole Palmer (£10.3m) were both ‘centurions’ after Gameweek 15 of 2024/25, too. For one reason or another (injury/form), it’s simply not been a good campaign for the big guns in midfield. In other positions, Erling Haaland (£15.0m) and Daniel Munoz (£6.1m) have proven that the ‘old ways’ can still win out.

But, that aside, DefCon has ushered in a new era, and helped long-overlooked players to compete with the household FPL names. Rice now has 12 DefCon points to his name after Saturday’s game. That’s the equivalent of four assists. It’s meant 5.9 points per start, not 5.1. If you count DefCons as a ‘return’, it’s meant Rice blanking in just 28% of his starts and not 50%.

SAKA THREATENS

Rice is now more widely owned than Saka, with the £3.0m saving – not to mention the better points tally – hard to argue with.

But with Salah and, for now, Palmer off the table, there’ll be plenty of managers still comfortable owning Saka. He’s actually not blanked – if you include DefCon – in five Gameweeks. That run has seen him deliver two goals, two assists and four DefCon points.

On Saturday, he was again a threat. He was Arsenal’s top player for penalty box touches (11), shots (four) and chances created (four). It was his cross-shot that Emi Martinez (£5.1m) palmed out, with Leandro Trossard (£6.9m) following in to score. Less than 20 minutes later, Saka had beaten Martinez – only for Boubacar Kamara (£4.9m) to kick away the goalbound effort.

All things factored in, he was right up there on Saturday for expected goal involvement (xGI) among midfielders (below) – as he has been over the last five Gameweeks, too.

Rather than Rice v Saka in a straight fight, could an Arsenal midfield double-up be the way to go while the defence is ever-so-slightly understrength?

MERINO + EZE HOOKED AT HALF-TIME

With Arsenal trailing at the break, Arteta took off Mikel Merino (£6.0m) and Eberechi Eze (£7.8m).

Merino was always going to be a short-term fixture in the Gunners’ side. The Spaniard had some credit in the bank following his recent goals, while Viktor Gyokeres (£8.8m) is only recently back from injury. Once the form of the former and the fitness of the latter began to move in opposite directions, however, it was just a matter of time.

Eze’s slightly different. He’ll no doubt continue to play a significant part in Arsenal’s season for weeks and months to come.

But since his Gameweek 12 hat-trick, which attracted a new wave of owners, four positional rivals in central midfield/on the left wing have returned to full fitness: Noni Madueke (£6.8m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m), Martin Odegaard (£7.8m) and, after a shorter spell out, Trossard. The xMins are back down again, especially with the busy month ahead. No Gunner will escape some minute management in this period; Saka and Jurrien Timber (£6.5m) were benched in Gameweek 14, indeed. But there aren’t the same number of serious threats to, say, Saka’s position as there are to Eze’s.

The former Palace man is probably not worth the risk over Christmas.

CALAFIORI BAN + ARTETA CONFIRMS MOSQUERA INJURY

Arsenal will be without Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) in Gameweek 16. The Italian picked up his fifth booking of the season on Saturday, so serves a one-match league ban.

And Cristhian Mosquera (£5.4m) will definitely be out, too. Reports had suggested the centre-half would be out for 6-8 weeks and while Arteta didn’t ratify that timeline, he did confirm that it will be “weeks” for the young defender.

“He’s going to be out for weeks, unfortunately, it’s much more than what we expected. But the player was feeling it, so he’s going to be out for weeks.” – Mikel Arteta on Cristhian Mosqeura

TIMBER BREAKS HIS DEFCON DUCK

The absence of Mosquera, along with first-choice pair William Saliba (£6.0m) and Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.3m), saw Jurrien Timber line up at centre-half. He had finished there against Brentford in midweek, too.

While the attacking threat diminished at centre-back, up went the defensive contributions – and Timber secured his first DefCon points of 2025/26.

Saliba, if Arteta is to be believed, ought to be back in the reckoning come Gameweek 16, so Timber should be resuming right-back duties soon.

“We know what those two [Gabriel and William Saliba] bring, especially in a game like this. But the other two [Piero Hincapie and Jurrien Timber], I think they were exceptional as well today.” – Mikel Arteta

WHY DON’T WE OWN VILLA PLAYERS?!

They’re second in the table and have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games.

A draw was the least they deserved on Saturday, as they went toe to toe with the title favourites:

So, given the form, why don’t many of us own any Aston Villa players?

For one, they’ve been better as a collective, rather than offering too many stand-out individual players. And FPL is mostly about individuals.

Their two top goalscorers, Emiliano Buendia (£5.3m) and Donyell Malen (£5.1m), are only on four goals apiece, and are far from nailed: they were both benched on Saturday, and have only started 10 league matches between them in 2025/26.

No Villa player has more than three assists, either. The points are simply being spread around.

Last season’s big Fantasy success stories, Morgan Rogers (£6.9m) and Ollie Watkins (£8.5m), have been slow off the mark at the start of 2025/26, too. Despite Villa’s renaissance, Watkins – who has looked sharper this week, testing David Raya (£6.0m) on Saturday – only had one league goal to his name before Gameweek 14. Rogers, meanwhile, only averages a shot every 70 minutes this season; Ian Maatsen (£4.2m) can better that.

Finally, they’re vastly overachieving on the expected goals front. Villa are ranked 14th for xG, and 15th for xGC in 2025/26. So, despite their lofty standing, no real talisman and iffy underlying data make them an uneasy proposition.

There is one Villan who does leap out at present: Matty Cash (£4.7m). Shorn of the competition affecting Lucas Digne (£4.5m) on the opposite flank, he’s started every league game this season. He’s one of the few defenders to hit double figures for both shots (15) and chances created (13). Even then, his three goals have come from an xG of 0.59 – so temper those expectations.

price change predictions
50 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    10 hours, 14 mins ago

    So good to have these back. Best FPL write ups going.

  2. Taegugk Warrior
    • 7 Years
    10 hours, 4 mins ago

    Plan to BB this week. Would you swap Munoz to O’Reilly..?

    1. Heiro
      • 16 Years
      9 hours, 31 mins ago

      I wouldn't. If I needed a defender and had 3 Arsenal, I would go Anderson for Fulham

      1. Taegugk Warrior
        • 7 Years
        9 hours, 28 mins ago

        Doesn’t think transfer out him before, but after he doesn’t even in the Line up today make me thinking of that.

  3. Heiro
    • 16 Years
    10 hours, 2 mins ago

    Evening all,

    Need another defender this week now that I have Califouri out.

    Califouri to Hincapie?

    I have Timber and Hincapie should be ok for quite a few?

  4. RICICLE
    • 3 Years
    9 hours, 47 mins ago

    Hey guys!

    Raya
    Chalobah - Munoz - O’Reilly
    Minteh - Foden - Saka - Bruno G
    Woltemade - Haaland - Thiago
    _________________________________
    Dubravka: VVD: Stach: Gudmundsson

    3FT’s, 0.9 ITB

    Last night already did Enzo + Mateta > Bruno G + Thiago

    VVD is most likely going for Anderson

    Plan is to go 352.
    So to fill the last two spots for exact funds, which do you prefer?

    A) Stach + Woltemade > DCL + Bruno Fernandes
    B) Stach + Woltemade > Marc Guiu + Palmer

    Feel A is the solid choice, B is risky but considering.

    Cheers gents!

    1. Yes Ndidi
      • 6 Years
      9 hours, 6 mins ago

      I went Palmer on WC hoping to steal a march on the masses, but I just don't think he's there yet. I'm switching to Saka and monitoring for a couple of weeks
      While DCL is also in a bit of form, I'd go A

      1. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        9 hours, 1 min ago

        Thanks bud! Appreciate it.
        Yeah, agreed, if Palmer had just a couple more games and looked sharp it’d make it easier to go for it, but like you say I just don’t think he’s there yet, rusty.

        Option it is then if I decide to go for it, had enough of Woltemade.
        Alternatively, could go Guiu + Bruno F and save some pennies.

        1. RICICLE
          • 3 Years
          9 hours ago

          Then again……I’ll probably need a playing bench player, DCL makes more sense.

          1. Yes Ndidi
            • 6 Years
            8 hours, 54 mins ago

            I get the feeling a deep bench will be useful over the next 3 or 4

            1. RICICLE
              • 3 Years
              8 hours, 50 mins ago

              Very true, it’s already taken effect, more rotation to come I reckon.

  5. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    9 hours, 44 mins ago

    Thoughts on WC?

    Sanchez Dubravka
    Timber Thiaw O’Riely Andersen Rodon
    Saka Bruno Foden Chukwueze KDH
    Haaland Pedro Thiago

    1. Yes Ndidi
      • 6 Years
      9 hours, 2 mins ago

      Don't think you want Chuck Wheezy just before he goes to AFCON. He's been named in the Nigeria squad

      1. Cruyff's Eleven
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 hours, 36 mins ago

        Haha. Chuck Wheezy

  6. MetallicaJack93
    • 2 Years
    9 hours, 43 mins ago

    Roll? 3ft left.

    Thinking to maybe get in Saka, Bruno G or KDH...

    Pickford
    Munoz Anderson Timber
    Mbeumo Foden Minteh Rice
    Haaland Welbeck Thiago
    Dub Gakpo Guehi De Cuyper

    1. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      8 hours, 49 mins ago

      Bruno and KDH asap.

  7. Koflok
    • 13 Years
    9 hours, 42 mins ago

    Pick 2 out of these for the next 3-4 GWs
    1. Bowen
    2. JP
    3. Gakpo
    4. Pedro Neto
    5. Szoboszlai
    6. Minteh

    1. RICICLE
      • 3 Years
      9 hours, 8 mins ago

      1 & 4 from those for me bud

    2. Yes Ndidi
      • 6 Years
      8 hours, 57 mins ago

      1 is going to be a good shout in a couple of weeks time. I like Neto & Szob, but not really struck on any of the others.

    3. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      8 hours, 49 mins ago

      4,5

  8. HellasLEAF
    • 16 Years
    9 hours, 19 mins ago

    Considering 2nd City mid with Foden.

    Cherki or Doku. Thinking Cherki more central. Perhaps looking bit more nailed on these days but never know as we know with Pep..

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      8 hours, 26 mins ago

      "Perhaps looking bit more nailed on these days"...benched in GW 13 and 14...

      1. HellasLEAF
        • 16 Years
        7 hours, 39 mins ago

        Yes but if you watched GW 15 he was excellent and played 82.

        Sometimes you need to buy a stock before it takes off you know? If signs are there.

        No denying it's a high risk proposition with City but honestly I think they go on to win the league and are worthy of a triple up going forward.

  9. mixology
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 hours, 18 mins ago

    Seems like a solid upcoming GW to FH.

    Wouldn’t want to lose Senesi/Semenyo before BUR in GW17. It’s still 2 GWs early to bring in KDH or an Everton defender. Palace playing Man City. Good GW to punt on Ars attackers as well with their defensive injuries. Gives another week of information before using the 5 FTs.

  10. Twisted Saltergater
    • 16 Years
    9 hours, 11 mins ago

    5th mid maybe rotate with Minteh

    1. Dewsbury-Hall
    2. Harry Wilson

    Anyone else?

    1. mixology
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 hours, 37 mins ago

      2 now, 1 in near future

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        8 hours, 29 mins ago

        Cheers, leaning that, just wasn’t sure to bake in an extra transfer.

  11. JBG
    • 7 Years
    9 hours, 1 min ago

    Eze to Rice or Saka? Don't care about the price difference or extra money Rice might leave me with, just want who's the supposed better long term pick?

    1. RICICLE
      • 3 Years
      8 hours, 19 mins ago

      I’m gonna side with Saka here, certainly my pick

    2. ball c
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 hours, 2 mins ago

      Saka
      I’ll be bringing him in.

  12. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    8 hours, 59 mins ago

    If I take a -8 now but on Friday decide I want to play FH instead and activate it, will that -8 get cancelled and the next week I’ll have my old team or the team I had after I took the -8?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      8 hours, 29 mins ago

      The former

  13. Utopsis
    • 5 Years
    8 hours, 56 mins ago

    Sorry for this silly question, but I can definitely a 1st half of Season chip in GW19 right?

    1. Utopsis
      • 5 Years
      8 hours, 56 mins ago

      definitely use *

      1. GreennRed
        • 14 Years
        8 hours, 34 mins ago

        Yes, But I think if you use one in GW19 you can't use the same 2nd half chip in GW20. Like you can't FH in GW19 and GW20 but could FH in GW19 and BB, TC, or WC in GW20. Not certain there so needs clarification.

        1. Utopsis
          • 5 Years
          8 hours, 24 mins ago

          Noted thanks, no plans to use a chip in 20 currently

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      8 hours, 54 mins ago

      Yes, first set of chips are available until GW19 deadline. Second set of chips are given from GW20

      1. Utopsis
        • 5 Years
        8 hours, 39 mins ago

        Thanks!

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      8 hours, 51 mins ago

      TC Haaland

      1. Utopsis
        • 5 Years
        8 hours, 39 mins ago

        GW17 for that!

    4. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      29 mins ago

      It's only the Free Hit chip that can't be used in consecutive Gameweeks, because of the confusion that would result when reverting to the previous squad.
      "The Free Hit chip cannot be played in consecutive Gameweeks. So, if the first chip is played in Gameweek 19, the second Free Hit cannot be made active until Gameweek 21."

  14. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    8 hours, 50 mins ago

    Pope & Enzo >>
    Sanchez & Semenyo
    Yaaay
    Nope
    Semenyo has two great fixtures v.s Manchester united and Burnley

    1. Utopsis
      • 5 Years
      8 hours, 23 mins ago

      He does and I think he'll do well

  15. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    8 hours, 37 mins ago

    Mateta > Thiago an easy transfer?

    1. ball c
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 hours, 3 mins ago

      Are Brentford without Schade next gw (suspension) and Dango away to afcon? Will this affect them? Something to consider
      I think there is a nice differential elsewhere if you want to go different

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 12 Years
        8 hours ago

        Valid point, just feel his fixtures are too hard to ignore. Plus not keen on any of the other differentials like dcl

      2. SpaceCadet
        • 12 Years
        7 hours, 55 mins ago

        Also saw somewhere that dango leaves after gw17.

  16. Taegugk Warrior
    • 7 Years
    8 hours, 21 mins ago

    KDH or Wilson..?

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      7 hours, 41 mins ago

      Hold and wait

  17. ball c
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 hours ago

    Raul Jimenez good option for next 4 gw’s?