Spot the Differential
10 February 2026 277 comments
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It’s time to look at some more differentials as Gameweek 26 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) comes swiftly into view.

These three players all have an ownership of 5% or less.


JORGEN STRAND LARSEN

  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £6.1m
  • GW26-30 fixtures: BUR | WOL | mun | tot | LEE

While Ismaila Sarr (£6.3m) was the main headline-maker in Crystal Palace’s derby win over Brighton and Hove Albion on Sunday, it’s also important to mention the role played by Jorgen Strand Larsen (£6.1m).

The Norwegian, who played as the lone striker in Oliver Glasner’s 3-4-2-1 formation (see image below), ultimately blanked, but he led the line well, racked up three shots and probably should have scored late on, when his low strike from Daniel Munoz’s (£5.8m) cutback was saved.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) has, of course, been ruled out of Gameweek 26.

It opens the door for a Strand Larsen punt against Burnley, who are ranked 20th for actual and expected goals conceded (xGC) in 2025/26. Scott Parker’s side are also without a win in 16 league matches.

Furthermore, with upcoming fixtures against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United, three of the current bottom five are set to visit Selhurst Park over the next five Gameweeks, before a likely blank in Gameweek 31.

Strand Larsen has obviously only just arrived at Palace, but when you consider the chances Mateta has been presented with this season, it’s clear they will play to his strengths.

“The style of play here suits me. It is intense, high pressure, winning the ball high up the pitch. We had a few chances today, and the more we train together, the more we play together, they will know my qualities and my strengths. I felt like I had a good game today but there is a lot of improvement as well, but a really good start to my journey here. I got fed a lot today and I will be in the future, so I’m looking forward to it.” – Jorgen Strand Larsen

So, while it is Sarr who has understandably attracted the most transfers in this week, having scored in back-to-back Gameweeks, it could actually be Strand Larsen who represents the strongest attacking option against the deep blocks of Burnley and Wolves.


MARTIN ZUBIMENDI

  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW26-30 fixtures: bre + wol | tot | CHE | bha | EVE

Martin Zubimendi (£5.3m) has quietly racked up nine attacking returns in all competitions this season.

Five goals have arrived in the Premier League, the joint-second-most of any Arsenal player:

Now admittedly, Zubimendi doesn’t shoot a lot – he’s averaging a goal attempt every 94.9 minutes in 2025/26.

He doesn’t create much either (139 minutes per chance created), but as a nailed-on, in-form £5.3m ‘doubler’, Zubimendi could be worth a look if, for example, you can’t afford Declan Rice (£7.5m).

It’s also important to mention that Zubimendi has banked defensive contribution (DefCon) points in two of his last six matches, and wasn’t far off in Gameweek 24, with three clearances, six recoveries and two tackles.

Notably, Zubimendi’s strike against Sunderland last week was his second from outside the box this season. Next up are Brentford and Wolves, who both rank in the bottom four for shots conceded from such situations.

“Zubi’s [goal] is a special one as well. He’s contributing now to the team in a way that probably we didn’t expect that much, but he really has an intuition and quality to deliver those moments in and around the box.” – Mikel Arteta on Martin Zubimendi

Beyond the ‘double’, Zubimendi can easily be benched without eating up too much of your budget, so perhaps we shouldn’t be too hasty in overlooking the Spaniard as a valid budget option this week.


TOLU AROKODARE

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW26-30 fixtures: nfo + ARS | cry | AVL | LIV | bre

Another ‘doubler’, Tolu Arokodare (£5.4m) could be gambled on in Gameweek 26.

The Nigerian centre-forward has been presented with some decent chances over the last six Gameweeks, finding the net against Chelsea on Saturday, with his StatsBomb shot map from this period included below.

Tolu’s shot-to-goal conversion rate is admittedly poor this season (6.7%), so you aren’t getting a reliable finisher.

However, his minutes look relatively secure in light of Strand Larsen’s departure.

A four-point floor in Double Gameweek 26 consequently looks possible, then.

Tolu is obviously most likely to get some joy against 17th-placed Nottingham Forest on Wednesday, rather than Arsenal. Indeed, across the Tricky Trees’ last four home matches, they rank 19th for shots conceded and 16th for xGC.

Although Wolves have lost their last three games, performances have been much better under Rob Edwards this year, with favourable results against West Ham United, Everton and Newcastle United.

So, for those needing to free up some cash, Tolu could present a handy solution, and with an ownership of only 0.3%, he also provides a bit of upside if he can build on his goal against Chelsea.


price change predictions
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  1. Tripleh123
    • 5 Years
    17 days, 10 hours ago

    Who to captain this week?

    A. Gabriel
    B. Rice
    C. Haaland

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      17 days, 10 hours ago

      I'm on B

    2. Count Olaf
      • 1 Year
      17 days, 10 hours ago

      Gabriel

    3. The Tonberry
      • 2 Years
      17 days, 10 hours ago

      A

    4. Noah OFlaherty
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        A

    5. FPL_Mall
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      17 days, 10 hours ago

      A) Semenyo to Rice (play Wilson and Rodon)
      B) Thiago and Andersen to Kroupi and Timber

      Triple captain Gabriel and own Raya.

      1. Count Olaf
        • 1 Year
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        I'd want Thiago from next week, so A.

      2. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Prefer A, but I'm not in love with it

      3. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        A

        Thinking you'll want Thiago back and triple defence is eggs in baskets and all thst

    6. Count Olaf
      • 1 Year
      17 days, 10 hours ago

      Start Wilson (M.City away) or Alderete (Liverpool home) ?

      1. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Wilson

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • 9 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Wilson

    7. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      17 days, 10 hours ago

      Hypothetically what scores more :

      A) Gabriel (bre, wol)
      B) Haaland (ARS, CPA)

      1. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Same as before

      2. Count Olaf
        • 1 Year
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Gabriel should score around 10. Anything more and you've been lucky, anything less and you've been unlucky.
        Haaland could score anything between 4 and 26 and we wouldn't be shocked.
        High floor vs high ceiling.

      3. I have no Wirtz
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          A

      4. Dave2008
        • 5 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        TC Rice chasing mini league leader 60 points behind? he will C or TC Gabriel

      5. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Gab
        Rice
        Timber
        Cala
        Madu

        Top 5 expected points here

        11 of the top 12 are Arsenal picks, with Haaland 9th

        Heavily skewed to the defenders etc.

        https://x.com/i/status/2021255131463881010

        1. Dave2008
          • 5 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          What do you think if chasing mini league leader to Rice?

      6. thebizzle
        • 14 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        I have Raya, Timber and Saliba

        Who would you captain from them?

        1. Gizzachance
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Timber

          1. thebizzle
            • 14 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Is Saliba more likely to play both

      7. I have no Wirtz
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Which Defense looks better to start today:

          A) Roefs, Gabriel, Timber, Richard

          B) Raya, Gabriel, Tarkowski, Richard
          C) Roefs, Gabriel, Saliba, Munoz -4

          1. jonnybhoy
            • 13 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            A

          2. Sgt. Schultz
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            A

        • The Tonberry
          • 2 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Start one:

          A - Guehi
          B - Kroupi Jr
          C - Thiago

          Am currently thinking Guehi

          1. Gizzachance
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            A

          2. FDMS All Starz
            • 10 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            A or B

        • McSwegan
          • 12 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Pick/Dub
          Muk/Anderson/Gabs/Timber/Dorgu
          Bruno F/Mbuemo/Wilson/Semenyo/Rice
          Haaland/Thiago/Guiu

          1FT.

          Dorgu > Munoz and bench Muk?

          Or roll?

        • Noah OFlaherty
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Rice or timber?

            1. Gizzachance
              • 11 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              Tim

            2. The Tonberry
              • 2 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              Rice if you're on Gab and Raya

          • Gizzachance
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Play
            A cash
            B senesi

            Cheers all

            1. The Tonberry
              • 2 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              B

          • Miguel Sanchez
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in

            1. Ze_Austin
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              I've picked and stuck. Accepting the consequences either way

              (C) Gabriel, (TC) Haaland/Palmer/BrunoF. BB when fixtures align on my bench, rather than forcing 15 for a DGW

              1. Miguel Sanchez
                • 9 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                I have got the BB to worry about so maybe I should just hold off on the TC this GW and hope a better opportunity presents itself later on.

                Can smell a Brentford goal on Thursday in a 3-1 Arsenal win.

          • Steavn8k
            • 2 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Still can't decide on who to start?
            A: Senesi
            B: Kroupi
            On Senesi at the moment, as I expect a low scoring game v. Everton.

            1. BrockLanders
              • 11 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              I'd go Senesi

              1. Steavn8k
                • 2 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Cheers, think I'll stick then.

          • BrockLanders
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Where's all the Rayan buyers??

            CAAAAAMAAAAAN

          • thebizzle
            • 14 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Raya (Dubrovnik)
            Timber Saliba Guehi (Hill Esteve)
            Semenyo Rogers Bruno Palmer (Miley)
            Haaland Pedro Mane

            1. thebizzle
              • 14 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              Is this worth bench boosting ?

              1. BrockLanders
                • 11 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Yeah. May be few other opportunities tbf

          • jonnybhoy
            • 13 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            TC Gabriel

            A) Yes
            B) No

            1. Sgt. Schultz
              • 9 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              A

          • Sgt. Schultz
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Any Duffy Triple Captainers around?

          • RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            Hi all.

            G2G here? I’m tempted to play Keane over Thiago given I am hoping for/expecting an Arsenal clean sheet::

            Sanchez
            Gabriel(C) Timber Chalobah
            Zubi(v) Bruno F Semenyo Enzo
            Haaland Ekitike Thiago
            (Dubs, Keane, Senesi, Devenny)

            1. BrockLanders
              • 11 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              I'd still play Thiago.

            2. Sgt. Schultz
              • 9 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              Keane not predicted to start.

          • Noah OFlaherty
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              A. Lammens
              Gabriel tc timber lacroix
              Bruno G gomes Fernandes enzo
              Haaland Pedro gyokeres
              Bench: kelleher e. Anderson ballard esteve

              B. Lammens
              Gabriel tc lacroix timber
              Bruno G rice gomes Fernandes enzo
              Haaland Pedro
              Bench kelleher anderson ballard esteve

              C. Lammens
              Gabriel tc lacroix Cash
              Bruno G rice Fernandes enzo
              Haaland Pedro gyokeres
              Bench kelleher anderson ballard esteve

              1. Noah OFlaherty
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  Leaning towards a at the moment

              2. FDMS All Starz
                • 10 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Would you do these moves?

                Keane & LeFee —> Munoz & Sarr (2FTs)

                Verbruggen (Areola)
                Gabriel* Timber* Keane (VDB Andersen)
                Rice* Bruno Mbuemo Enzo (LeFee)
                Haaland* Thiago Kroupi
                (2FTs & 3.7itb)

                * = blank in gw31 (already have 4 and possible 5 if VDB is dropped)

              3. Ha.
                • 10 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Is there any chance of GW35 being a a double?

              4. Ze_Austin
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                In the reverse fixtures, Wolves scored while Brentford blanked

                Not what I expected to find

                Gabriel was injured though, so they weren't as watertight

              5. Tripleh123
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Which one to bench this week?

                A. Thiago
                B. Summerville
                C. Enzo

              6. Ninjaa
                • 15 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Currently
                Raya
                Gabriel Chalobah Guehi Vvd
                Wirtz Enzo Rice
                Haaland Watkins Thiago

                Dubravka Wilson Alderete 4m

                1.9m itb and 2fts. What to do here chaps? Thinking Vvd to Munoz? Anyone else need to go? For who? Best Captain choice, Rice , Gabriel?

              7. Pylynen
                • 8 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                What to do here? 3ft 2.6itb

                Verbruggen
                Gabriel Timber VVD NOR
                Bruno Mbeumo Rice Enzo Anderson
                Haaland

                Dubravka Thiago Rodon Guiu

                A) Save
                B) Verbruggen>Sa
                C) NOR>Munoz
                D) Both B and C

              8. DandyDon
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                A or B!?

                a) Mbuemo to Martinelli + Taty to Strand Larsen
                b) Mbuemo to Dewsbury-Hall + Taty to Gykores

                most likely in the coming weeks A) will pivot into Rogers and B) will Watkins

              9. Gorky
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Will we get Chelsea lineup before the deadline?
                Could do with knowing if James is starting

              10. Shark Team
                • 8 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                What’s your opinion about Gabriel this GW?
                A) up to 5pts
                B) up to 10pts
                C) up to 15pts
                D) up to 20pts
                E) 21+

                1. Mighty Duck
                  • 1 Year
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  C

                2. BobbyDoesNotLook
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  C