This Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each team from both an attacking and defensive perspective.
We will also examine the leading players for expected goal involvement (xGI), in order to gain a more accurate understanding of who is actively contributing in the final-third.
- READ MORE: Palmer, Rayan, Rice: Buy, keep or sell in Gameweek 27?
- READ MORE: Best FPL Gameweek 27 fixtures: Players + teams to target
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
Chelsea are top for xG over the last six matches, with only a slight drop-off in actual goals scored.
Liam Rosenior has notably been in charge for five of those games: Leeds United (2-2 draw), Wolverhampton Wanderers (3-1 win), West Ham United (3-2 win), Crystal Palace (3-1 win) and Brentford (2-0 win).
The Blues have been awarded five penalties in Gameweeks 21-26, but even without spot-kicks factored in, they would still be top for non-pen xG.
Newcastle United have improved, too, having generated +2.0 xG against Tottenham Hotspur (2.48), Brentford (2.24), Aston Villa (2.18) and Leeds United (2.44) in our sample.
As for Brentford, they are one of only five teams to create an overall xG above 10.0 in the last six matches, and they are consistently creating high-quality opportunities, with 20 big chances in Gameweeks 21-26, the joint-second-most of any team:
Above: Teams sorted by big chances (BCT) – last six matches
In addition to Igor Thiago (£7.0m) and co, defensive investment in Keith Andrews’ side could also pay off in the coming weeks, with three of their next four opponents in the bottom four for xG over the last six matches.
Further down, it’s not the defence that Unai Emery needs to worry about (see below), but creativity at the other end of the pitch. Indeed, Aston Villa have scored only four goals from 8.05 xG in their last six matches, which has coincided with injuries to key midfielders Boubacar Kamara (£4.9m), Youri Tielemans (£5.9m) and John McGinn (£5.4m).
Brighton and Hove Albion are also a tough watch at the moment, with their attack in really poor form.
Sunderland, meanwhile, are third-bottom in the xG table, with only Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley below them.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC)
