Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on when Arsenal assets should be sold, Chelsea attackers, Antoine Semenyo (£8.0m), and how non-Wildcarders can plan for Double Gameweek 33.
Q: For those without a Wildcard left, which teams will likely be high on the radar for Double Gameweek 33? Teams that we could be working towards. Or is it not possible to tell at this stage?
(via KeanosMagic)
A: I think if you don’t have a Wildcard left, accept that you’ll have some players who won’t play twice in Gameweek 33. It’s virtually impossible to plan for a full 11 or 15 without that chip.
As to knowing which teams will have a double, the only time we can start having some clarity is by Gameweek 30. That’s when we will know which teams have reached the quarter-finals. Even then, we’d still be guessing the semi-finalists, based on probabilities. And, as we know, anything can happen in a one-off match.
But that’s absolutely fine. There are several teams like Brentford who might have a Double Gameweek 33, but still have a good fixture that week (at home to Fulham). I think you should just look to get good FPL assets from teams with a good fixture run leading up to it.
In fact, you might have an advantage from Gameweek 33 onwards, when most Wildcard teams cherry-pick doublers but probably ignore players beyond that round.
As you can see in the above Members Area image, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Brentford have the best fixtures over the next seven Gameweeks.
You can probably ignore Palace because of Blank Gameweek 31, but the other three are where you should be looking. They could all still double.
Q: Is it safe to lose Jurrien Timber (£6.4m) this week? I already have Gabriel Magalhaes (£7.1m) and will probably Wildcard in Gameweek 32.
Q: Is it time to sell Timber and Declan Rice (£7.6m)?
(via Philosopher’s Stones and FPL Virgin)
A: Arsenal have kept three clean sheets in the last six matches and are still clear of everyone else for expected goals conceded (xGC, 3.19) over that time, so I don’t think there is a rush to ditch any of their players, unless it’s to fund other moves.
Yes, the closer we get to Blank Gameweek 31, their assets will become more sellable, bar Gabriel. We all probably have value tied up in the Brazilian, and will want him back straight away.
However, there is some rotation risk for Timber, now that Ben White (£5.1m) returned to the bench against Wolverhampton Wanderers. He could even be benched against Tottenham Hotspur this weekend, and Gameweek 29 is another midweek one. So I do understand selling him.
As for Rice, he just has so many routes to points. Defensive contribution (DefCon) rewards, assists, bonus points and a slight goal threat.
There’s never a good specific time to sell him, but I think turning him into Florian Wirtz (£8.4m) or Dango Ouattara (£5.8m) makes sense. He’s one you’re unlikely to carry through the blank, and there are several other good players with appealing fixtures and arguably a higher ceiling.
Personally, I’ll give Rice the north London derby, then assess what to do next week.
Q: Should non-Semenyo owners take him on by getting Wirtz or Morgan Rogers (£7.6m), and at what point is he not worth buying? For example, if you are already carrying five Blank Gameweek 31 players.
Q: Is the Blank Gameweek really a good enough reason not to have Semenyo?
(via Jet5605 and Hairy Potter)
A: Semenyo has three goals and two assists in five league matches for Manchester City, playing 90 minutes each time. Helping his cause was not being eligible for the previous Champions League matches, so is he a minutes risk once selected for the knockout phase?
To a very low extent, yes. But the system that Man City are playing relies on two forwards; the second one playing very close to Erling Haaland (£14.9m). That’s the role that Semenyo is currently occupying. He’s providing a genuine goal threat that Man City have lacked this season.
With Arsenal dropping points in the title race, Pep Guardiola’s side probably smell blood, so I think Semenyo will start every league game until Blank Gameweek 31. However, if they get Real Madrid in the Champions League, he’d be expected to start those games too. So we can’t say there is zero risk of rotation, just a low one.
I wouldn’t let Blank Gameweek 31 put anyone off but, as we get closer to it, the upside of buying him gradually reduces. Now is still a good move to get him, but it depends on the hygiene of your squad for that blank, and the number of free transfers you have.
Furthermore, I think Rogers and Wirtz are very good picks as well, though maybe just slightly lower in my ranking. But yes, if you already have five blankers, adding Semenyo might be a step too far.
Q: In current form, is Joao Pedro (£7.7m) someone to hold?
(via Free Hat)
A: Chelsea’s fixtures get tougher once the Burnley game is done, but I only rate Gameweek 28 versus Arsenal as difficult, from an attacking perspective.
Joao Pedro has clearly established himself as Liam Rosenior’s first-choice forward. Even when the Champions League games swing around, I think he’s still going to be starting, given the difficulty of fixtures.
So yes, I think he’s a fine hold. But if you can move him on for Igor Thiago (£7.0m) after Burnley, I’d do that.
Q: Is having Thiago, Ouattara and Caoimhin Kelleher (£4.6m) a bit too much from Brentford?
(via SIMBOBIANTHEIII)
A: Well, Brentford rank fourth for expected goals (xG, 10.24) across the last six matches, despite playing difficult opponents like Arsenal, Aston Villa and Newcastle United.
Has this played into their strengths, though? Keith Andrews’ side thrives in games where they have less possession and can play on the counter. After facing Brighton and Hove Albion, will their next opponents allow that?
I think so. Burnley and Bournemouth will still take the game to the Bees on home turf, as will Leeds United. Even so, I’m not overly keen on investing in their defence, as there aren’t many ‘banker’ clean sheets.
Therefore, I don’t mind doubling on their attack, but will avoid their backline. And with Nathan Collins‘ (£5.0m) game time under threat, Kelleher is the only investible pick there.
Q: Is it still worth bringing Cole Palmer (£10.6m) in this week, for captaincy?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: At the time of writing, we’ve not yet heard from Guardiola, but Haaland was pictured in training on Tuesday, so the Norwegian should start against Newcastle. Palmer is probably the leading captaincy option, but I think Haaland could go close to matching him.
The question is: are you comfortable holding Palmer beyond this week, against Arsenal, Villa, Newcastle and Everton? If this is only a one-week move due to captaincy, I’d just skip this and give Haaland the armband.
Q: I bought Ismaila Sarr (£6.4m) in Gameweek 26. Can I hold him through to Gameweek 30, while prioritising the Rice and Enzo Fernandez (£6.9m) sales? Or is Sarr not worth the hold?
(via @FPL_Cranefly)
A: Given Maxence Lacroix‘s (£5.1m) injury in the Conference League, all Crystal Palace defensive assets seem sellable, and they will have to score more goals to win games now.
I think Manchester United and Spurs both have defensive vulnerabilities that Sarr could expose, while Palace’s style suits playing on the counter with less possession. That’s why holding onto Sarr until Gameweek 30 is a perfectly good play.
