It’s time to look at some more differentials as Gameweek 30 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) comes swiftly into view.
These three players all have an ownership of 5% or less.
MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE
- FPL ownership: 3.8%
- Price: £7.3m
- GW30-34 fixtures: FUL | tot | AVL | BUR | sun
Having fought back twice to claim a point at Manchester City, confidence should be on the up for Nottingham Forest and, in particular, Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.3m).
The midfielder has scored in back-to-back Gameweeks under Vitor Pereira, as well as finding the net against Fenerbahce in Europe.
Sunday’s home encounter with Fulham looks ideal for Gibbs-White to add to that tally.
The Cottagers have failed to keep a clean sheet since the turn of the year. They’ve also conceded 17 times in 11 matches, ranking 14th for expected goals conceded (xGC).
As a No 10, Gibbs-White looks well placed to cause further problems.
Over the last six Gameweeks, the England international is joint-top among midfielders for shots (18, see image below) and second for chances created (19).
His role on the pitch has evolved recently, too.
In the second half against Brighton and Hove Albion in Gameweek 28, and more recently at Man City, Pereira has used a 3-5-2 formation, with Gibbs-White playing off centre forward Igor Jesus (£5.8m).
“He is a special player. He has a lot of quality. He smells the spaces, he smells the opportunities – it was a beautiful goal. But Morgan is not only a fantastic player, he is a leader. He has the character that we need. He is a fighter and this is the spirit I want to see in my team.” – Vitor Pereira on Morgan Gibbs-White in Gameweek 29
If it continues, it undoubtedly enhances Gibbs-White’s appeal.
Factor in potential penalties (he admittedly missed his last spot kick in Europe), plus some decent fixtures including a confirmed Gameweek 34 match, and Gibbs-White looks to have the platform to produce those all-important attacking returns.
HARRY MAGUIRE
- FPL ownership: 1.7%
- Price: £4.4m
- GW30-34 fixtures: AVL | bou | LEE | che | BRE
Manchester United’s Harry Maguire (£4.4m) could be worth a look if you’re in the market for a budget defender.
The centre-back has started every match under Michael Carrick thus far, with three clean sheets in eight appearances.
In that time, United rank joint-second for fewest big chances conceded (eight) and sixth for xGC (7.04).
Although Maguire has failed to register any attacking points in that period, he has posed a threat from set plays, with four headed attempts from such situations, the joint-fifth most of any FPL defender.
That could be important in future Gameweeks, with upcoming opponents Bournemouth, Leeds United and Chelsea all in the bottom six for set-piece xGC per 90 minutes in 2026.
As for Aston Villa, they visit Old Trafford on Sunday, having scored just six times in nine matches, so defensive returns are a real possibility.
There is defensive contribution (DefCon) potential for Maguire, too, having banked extra DefCon points in three of his last seven matches.
Furthermore, in eight of the last 10 fixtures that the Villans have contested, at least one opposition defender has come away with DefCon points.
DAN BALLARD
- FPL ownership: 3.8%
- Price: £4.6m
- GW30-34 fixtures: BHA | new | TOT | avl | NFO
A name you’ll frequently see near the summit of our points projections is Sunderland’s Dan Ballard (£4.6m). Indeed, over the next six Gameweeks (before the blanks/doubles are confirmed), he’s the top projected scorer amongst defenders.
And yet, he’s barely owned. Just 1.65% of the top 100k have him in their squads.
Ballard’s potential has perhaps gone under the radar thanks to the exploits of teammates who started the season cheaper than him, such as Nordi Mukiele (£4.5m).
DefCon-wise, a 52% success rate doesn’t quite tell the full story. That figure includes six matches when Ballard was either a substitute or taken off early for fitness reasons.
Looking only at 90-minute run-outs (you’d expect most centre-backs to last the full game), the success rate is up at 63%. That’s even above James Tarkowski (£5.3m).
Indeed, his ‘contributions per 90 minutes’ figure is almost unparalleled:
Above: Defenders sorted by defensive contributions per 90 minutes (min. 1,000 minutes played)
At the other end of the pitch, Ballard is joint-second among defenders for both shots in the box (23) and big chances (eight).
Fixtures-wise, there are some decent, if not spectacularly good, games coming up for Sunderland:
| xG rank | Goals scored rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Gameweek 30: Brighton (h) | 10th | 12th |
| Gameweek 31: Newcastle (a) | 9th | 8th |
| Gameweek 32: Spurs (h) | 17th | 10th= |
| Gameweek 33: Aston Villa (a) | 13th | 10th= |
| Gameweek 34: Nottm Forest (h) | 16th | 19th |
| Gameweek 35: Wolves (a) | 19th | 20th |
There are no Double Gameweeks for the Mackems but for those managers looking at Free Hitting in the mooted Double Gameweek 33 especially, that’s less of a bother.
Sunderland, the joint-fourth-best defence for goals conceded, are soon to be further boosted by the return of Mukiele and Reinildo (£3.8m). The impact of Granit Xhaka‘s (£5.1m) comeback can’t be underestimated, either.
