In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser gives his opinion on what the best Free Hit team looks like for Double Gameweek 33.
With many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers currently activating their Free Hit chip, here are my thoughts on what the ideal 15-man squad looks like.
I’ll personally be using the Bench Boost, where any transfer depends on the fitness of Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m).
Free Hit users need to decide what gear to use when picking defenders. Chase the ceiling of a six-point goal, or be content with defensive contribution (DefCon) points? This is particularly relevant for Leeds United.
LEEDS’ DEFENCE
Jayden Bogle (£4.4m) has the highest expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90 rate amongst their backline, showing he’s capable of a goal or an assist.
I watched some match highlights and noticed that he’s capable of scoring a back-post tap-in, especially when Gabriel Gudmundsson (£3.8m) is creating from the other side. As witnessed against Manchester United, Bogle has quality on the ball and, at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers, should have a fair chunk of the ball and some attacking impetus.
That said, he doesn’t quite have the DefCon abilities of Pascal Struijk (£4.3m) or Jaka Bijol (£3.9m), who also offer set-piece threat. Struijk has the highest number of headed attempts (23) amongst defenders, and only Marc Guehi (£5.1m) beats him for shots in the box (26).
So, if picking two, I’d go with Bogle and Struijk.
MAXIMISING THE DOUBLE
Up front, I would place Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.6m) slightly ahead of Danny Welbeck (£6.3m) and Eli Kroupi Junior (£4.6m). That’s based on a hope that he’ll finally revert to the mean, after missing 10 of his last 11 big chances.
Erling Haaland (£14.4m), Joao Pedro (£7.7m), Cole Palmer (£10.5m) and Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) pick themselves, in my opinion, due to their sheer ‘quality’ and two – possibly three – of them are on penalties.
Palmer looked a lot sharper against Manchester City, especially in the first half, and I have a feeling that attacking returns are coming very, very soon. And, if not, at least we can rely on his DefCon points!
Harry Maguire (£4.4m) will be banned versus Chelsea, meaning that Man United could have a young backline of Leny Yoro (£4.1m) and Ayden Heaven (£3.7m), increasing the need for Blues attackers.
A MAN CITY TRIPLE-UP
Meanwhile, Man City are very much in a title race after last weekend’s events. Like at Chelsea and Bournemouth, motivation is high.
But settling on the right three assets is crucial, as they soon have an FA Cup semi-final against Southampton. We don’t want to see any rotation during the trip to Burnley.
For that reason, I slightly prefer Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m) to Rayan Cherki (£6.3m), but the argument can be made that Pep Guardiola will need the latter’s creativity to unlock the Clarets’ potential deep block.
Anyway, Pep seems to have found his favoured XI, and I think both midfielders will start twice. I just like Semenyo because he’s a more natural goalscorer and usually lasts longer than Cherki.
Plus, if we hear on Friday that O’Reilly is out, or in doubt, it boosts Semenyo further because, in the current set-up, Semenyo stays wide. But I wonder if he’ll take over O’Reilly’s box-crashing second striker role, if needed.
If the left-back is indeed unavailable, I’d be tempted to double up on Man City midfielders, but defender Matheus Nunes (£5.3m) has assured minutes and a significant assist threat.
DIFFERENTIALS
When assessing low-owned punts, I’d throw in Jack Hinshelwood (£5.1m), as he’s been underperforming his data by quite a bit. The 21-year-old got into great positions against Burnley and accumulated 0.71 xGI being in and around the box for every ball that went there.
He’s the leading midfielder for non-penalty xGI across the last seven Gameweeks, suggesting his luck will turn sooner rather than later. I’m predicting a tap-in and an assist during Double Gameweek 33.
A good place to differentiate is the third forward, someone like Welbeck or Kroupi. The fourth midfielder can be Cherki or Hinshelwood and, accordingly, you either go for Nunes, Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7m) or an additional Bournemouth or Leeds defender.
As for really outrageous punts, try Estevao (£6.4m). But the return of Enzo Fernandez (£6.5m) means we aren’t massively sure of his minutes.
If you want more, check out this week’s episode of The FPL Wire, where fellow podcasters Zophar and Pras are debating whether to Wildcard in Gameweek 33 or 35.
