Six top-flight teams, including Leeds United, are about to play twice in Gameweek 33 – the biggest ‘double’ of this Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season.
We’ve already covered a lot of chip strategy last week and early this week, including Wildcard, Bench Boost and Free Hit articles.
But for those managers not deploying any chip, just using ordinary free transfers and/or looking more of a deep-dive into Gameweek 33, we’re ‘Scouting the Doubles’.
So, let’s analyse Leeds’ opponents and identify some appealing FPL individuals.
FIXTURE DIFFICULTY
Looking at the final stretch of 2025/26, Leeds have one of the nicer-looking schedules – starting with Double Gameweek 33.
The momentum from Monday’s win at Manchester United can push them to another one against last-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are second-worst for expected goals (xG, 28.61) and have the fewest across every team’s last half-dozen matches (5.15).
They’re leaky in defence, too. Season-long expected goals conceded (xGC, 50.67) is the third-worst, while they should have let in 12.10 over the latest six. Basically, numbers you’d anticipate from an outfit about to go down.
| xG rank (last six) | xG rank (season) | xGC rank (last six) | xGC rank (season) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 20th | 19th | 19th | 18th |
| Bournemouth | 8th | 7th | 17th | 17th |
However, it’s less straightforward for Bournemouth, who Daniel Farke’s side visit next Wednesday.
Their top-half-of-the-table xG ranking hints at a difficult night for Leeds defenders, but the Cherries had three 0-0s between Gameweeks 27 and 30.
Does that mean Andoni Iraola has built a good defence? Conceding four goals in six suggests so, but they were due to let in 10.59 and, over the whole campaign, it’s a fourth-worst 48.94.
| Gameweek | Result | Bournemouth’s xG | Bournemouth’s xGC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0-0 draw | 0.65 | 3.27 |
| 28 | 1-1 draw | 1.71 | 1.42 |
| 29 | 0-0 draw | 1.92 | 0.41 |
| 30 | 0-0 draw | 2.55 | 1.40 |
| 31 | 2-2 draw | 1.82 | 1.77 |
| 32 | 2-1 win | 1.19 | 2.32 |
| 9.84 | 10.59 |
So there should have been 20.43 goals in this period, rather than nine.
Even so, no team has conceded fewer big chances (17) at home.
OPPOSITION WEAKNESSES
Relegation-bound Wolves didn’t win or keep a clean sheet until Gameweek 20. While they’ve noticeably improved since then, Friday’s 4-0 capitulation at West Ham United was terrible.
A notable weakness is individual mistakes. No side has seen more of them lead to a goal (13), whereas Leeds and Bournemouth have made the fewest overall errors (14 and 17).
Yet, there’s one team below Wolves in hypothetical league tables for both the second half and final 15 minutes: Leeds. If referees ended all matches at half-time, the Yorkshire club would be in 10th place with 44 points.
Above: How teams fare in 15-minute periods, according to SoccerStats
Combine this with Bournemouth ranking third for points gained from losing positions (16), don’t be surprised if Leeds score first but run out of energy, allowing their Vitality Stadium hosts to equalise late on.
After all, these two sides have banked the most draws. Seven of the Cherries’ 12-match unbeaten run ended this way.
Meanwhile, Leeds are in second place for churning out attempts from set-pieces (155) and throw-ins (46). Bournemouth claim pole position for shots deriving from direct free-kicks (17).
Interestingly, there’s a big difference between Iraola’s two defensive flanks. Only Burnley have welcomed more key passes down the left (122), but they’re one of the best on the right (80).
ROTATION RISK
When looking back at this season’s other four quick turnarounds, it’s prudent to check out Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.6m), just bought by 290,000 managers.
The forward has started all available league games since his Gameweek 19 cameo, which is promising, but bear in mind that he hasn’t started three matches in a week all season.
Elsewhere, the injuries to Anton Stach (£4.8m) and Joe Rodon (£3.9m) should reduce short-term rotation worries. Pascal Struijk (£4.3m) is safe, Brenden Aaronson (£5.4m) has started 16 in a row, and 29 of Gabriel Gudmundsson‘s (£3.8m) 30 appearances were from the outset.
Even though Sebastiaan Bornauw (£3.8m) lingers, James Justin (£3.9m) and Jaka Bijol (£3.9m) should be safe for Gameweek 33 with Rodon out. If you’re looking at Leeds defender as a longer-term punt, Rodon should return in May, potentially reclaiming his spot from one of Justin/Bijol.
A word on Noah Okafor (£5.5m), too. The winger is hard to drop after his Monday night heroics, but he recently missed four encounters because of a hamstring issue. This was his first start since Gameweek 25, and he hasn’t begun two consecutive weekend/midweek league matches in 2026.
Bear in mind that an FA Cup semi-final lingers beyond Gameweek 33. Farke rotated in the FA Cup in the last three-game week but this coming cup clash is a bit different, as it’s at Wembley.
Above: Leeds’ minutes in their last three-game week, via our Minutes Tracker (a white block means not in the squad)
Perhaps we should also look back to the last seriously busy period, in Gameweeks 18-21. You can see the risk to Okafor’s minutes, while Calvert-Lewin was on bench duty for one of the four matches.
Above: Leeds’ minutes in Gameweeks 18-21, via our Minutes Tracker (a white block means not in the squad)
FPL PLAYER PICKS
Defence
Between the sticks, Karl Darlow (£3.9m) seems to be Farke’s league stopper, saving Lucas Perri (£4.4m) for their FA Cup run. Priced so cheaply, that’s ideal for activating a Bench Boost in either Gameweek 33 or 35.
FPL managers might want to double-up on a backline that’s conceded once in three matches. From here, it’s about budget and whether to prioritise either attacking potential or defensive contribution (DefCon) points.
For example, Jaka Bijol has secured DefCon in six of his last starts, at a slightly better overall rate than Pascal Struijk (42.1% v 41.4%), but the latter is more nailed-on in the longer term (if you’re looking to buy up to Gameweek 38), coupling this with a big goal threat.
The leading defender for headed attempts (23) is beaten only by Marc Guehi (£5.1m) for shots inside the box (26), yet still hasn’t scored, making him the position’s biggest xG underachiever (-2.77).
In fact, Gabriel Gudmundsson is without any attacking returns at all, despite 22 crosses and 3.40 expected goal involvement (xGI). Like fellow wing-backs James Justin and Jayden Bogle (£4.4m), he rarely receives DefCon rewards. Speaking of Bogle, the assist at Old Trafford takes him to four in total. Only two defenders have created more big chances (six).
In short, Bijol is tempting for the Free Hitters, but Struijk or, if you want the cheapest possible option and are not bothered about the ‘extras’, Gudmundsson are safer in the longer term.
Attack
A regular on ‘Goals Imminent’, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has a notoriously bad portfolio of wastefulness. He’s missed 10 of his last 11 big chances, being the largest xG underperformer of Gameweeks 28, 30 and 32. Throughout this and the previous four seasons, he should have scored 17.97 more times.
Then again, at least he’s getting in the right positions for such shots. Armed with penalty duties, perhaps Calvert-Lewin can go on a scoring run, as he did between Gameweeks 13 and 18. It’s more in hope than expectation…
The nature of FPL means that Noah Okafor‘s brace will make him a popular differential for Gameweek 33 Free Hit users. The Swiss international has four goals in his last four appearances. But be aware that his game-time may continue to be carefully managed by Farke, so if you’re after 180 minutes or two guaranteed starts, he might be a ‘pass’.
So, if you’re simply looking for a 90-minute man who regularly reaches the DefCon threshold, Ethan Ampadu (£4.9m) is the one. He’s achieved this in five of the last six. He could easily emerge from Gameweek 33 with around eight points.
