We’re ‘Scouting the Doubles’ once again as we look at another club playing twice in Gameweek 33, Brighton and Hove Albion.
We’ve already covered a lot of chip strategy last week and early this week, including Wildcard, Bench Boost and Free Hit articles.
But for those managers not deploying any chip, just using ordinary free transfers and/or looking more of a deep-dive into Double Gameweek 33, this piece hopefully has you covered.
On the back of five wins in six and pushing for European qualification, the Seagulls are in good nick at present.
- READ MORE: Scouting the Doubles: Best Chelsea players for FPL Double Gameweek 33
- READ MORE: Scouting the Doubles: Best Leeds players for FPL Double Gameweek 33
BRIGHTON’S DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 33 OPPONENTS
| xG rank (last six) | xG rank (season) | xGC rank (last six) | xGC rank (season) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | 19th | 17th | 16th | 16th |
| Chelsea | 5th | 1st | 6th | 9th |
We’ll start off on a real positive for owners of Brighton attackers: their Gameweek 33 opponents are on the Premier League’s two longest clean sheet droughts.
Chelsea haven’t kept a shut-out in 10 league matches, while Spurs’ barren run stretches to 13 top-flight games.
The Blues’ xGC of 12.98 is the Premier League’s sixth-best during this drought, so perhaps they’ve been unfortunate not to bank at least one clean sheet. Or, just maybe, it’s more of an indictment of the men between the posts…
One thing worth noting is Chelsea’s propensity to concede set-piece goals:
Have we seen an improvement under Rosenior? Nope. In fact, no club has conceded more set-piece goals (six) since his took over. Good for the corner-taking Pascal Gross (£5.5m) and Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.5m), perhaps?
Below, we can see where Chelsea have conceded passes/crosses from that have led to chances/goals in the last six Gameweeks.
A lot of goals have been assisted from the centre-right positions, which could benefit Diego Gomez (£4.9m) and Mats Wieffer (£4.9m).
Chelsea are, however, a threat at the other end, despite recent blanks. They are top for xG this season, so a clean sheet could be hard to come by for the Seagulls.
As for Spurs, the underlying numbers – both recent and season-wide – suggest they’re right where they should be: in a relegation scrap.
Naturally, a change in manager could help push those stats in the right direction. But there were no obvious signs of improvement in Roberto De Zerbi’s first match in charge in Gameweek 32, when Spurs slumped to a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland.
ROTATION RISKS
Using our new Minutes Tracker, which you can find in the Members Area, we can view the game time of every Brighton player, not just in the Premier League but also in the cup competitions.
We don’t need to look very far for a precedent for this week’s Saturday-Tuesday turnaround.
There were 72-hour turnarounds in Gameweeks 25 and 26 (below left), as well as Gameweeks 28 and 29 (below right):
During the last turnaround, Hurzeler made just three alterations – and they all involved the veterans. Lewis Dunk (£4.5m), James Milner (£4.9m) and Danny Welbeck (£6.3m) all dropped out, before returning the next game.
It’s a recurring theme. Welbeck hasn’t started consecutive weekend-midweek matches all season, even when Brighton have subsequently had a free weekend.
Dunk and Milner are going to miss the first half of Double Gameweek 33 anyway but Welbeck is obviously a concern for the second of the Double Gameweek 33 matches.
Dunk, you’d think, would come back in for Olivier Boscagli (£4.2m) against Chelsea next Tuesday.
The good news for other Brighton assets is that this has probably been the most settled that Albion’s side has been all season, thanks to five wins in six.
During those six Gameweeks, seven players are ever-present starters (Dunk, Milner and Welbeck being three of the exceptions):
Were it not for Kaoru Mitoma‘s (£6.1m) injury, it may have been eight ever-presents. Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) now has the shirt on the left wing.
Long may the form continue, or else Hurzeler may go back to his usual tinkering!
BEST BRIGHTON PLAYERS FOR DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 33
THE DEFENCE
It’s a respectable four clean sheets in 13 matches for Brighton, and the underlying data is strong.
During those 13 matches, they’ve only once conceded more than one goal. Ten goals conceded is the lowest in the division.
And an xGC of 14.01 from Gameweeks 20-32 is also the league’s second-best:
Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.5m) is the stand-out defender.
He leads his teammates at the back for goals (three) and defensive contribution (DefCon) points (26), achieving the latter in four of his last six matches. It would’ve been five, had there not been a post-Arsenal recount.
Perhaps the only other Seagulls defender that can compete with van Hecke is Ferdi Kadioglu (£4.4m). He is goalless but boasts more attempts (22) and expected goal involvement (xGI, 4.02). He’s also started the last 28 league matches, so he’s pretty nailed.
However, there’s such a drop-off in DefCon potential (just four such points all season) that we’re happy to give him a swerve.
Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m) is instead the preferred route to a double-up. He’s played every minute and has made the fourth-most saves (91) in the league, so he could top up clean sheets (or compensate for the loss of them) with save points.
THE ATTACK
We’ve already discussed the game-time concerns about Danny Welbeck (£6.3m). If you can stomach the likelihood of one benching, you’ve got maybe 100-120 minutes against the league’s two most out-of-form defences.
And if you’re looking at Welbeck as a medium-term punt (i.e. not on a Free Hit), he should start every game from Gameweek 35 onwards, as there are no more midweek matches:
So, which midfielder?
Jack Hinshelwood (£5.1m), getting in some excellent goalscroring positions in a ’10’ role, bosses the recent underlying numbers.
In fact, he’s even second among all FPL midfielders for non-penalty xGI over the last six Gameweeks:
He’s the high-upside pick, albeit he’s yet to score with his last 24 shots.
The issue is that, while this Brighton side is currently settled, one poor performance could derail all that. No more so than out wide, where Kaoru Mitoma (£6.1m) is waiting patiently for one of Diego Gomez (£4.9m) or Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) to cock up.
If Spurs win on Saturday, could Hurzeler shake things up on Tuesday?
Gomez is probably the most secure of the wingers and number 10s, and he’s even banked DefCon in the last three Gameweeks.
If you’re not willing to take a risk and want someone longer term, we can go a bit duller with Pascal Gross (£5.5m) or Mats Wieffer (£4.9m).
Gross has started every league match since his ‘second’ Albion full debut in Gameweek 21. He’s Brighton’s leading chance creator since then. Wieffer (Hurzeler’s clear first-choice right-back), meanwhile, is a DefCon machine, hitting the threshold in 11 of the 15 games in which he’s lasted 75+ minutes:
