Having assessed the sides favoured to prosper over the next four-to-six Gameweeks yesterday, our focus now turns to those sides who face a more testing time over the coming weeks. With two blanks in the next four rounds of fixtures, it’s fair to say that Merseyside pair Liverpool and Everton have a tough task to remain in our short-term plans.
Liverpool
The Reds have scored an impressive 13 goals in their last four matches, but with those two blanks, along with tough match-ups against Southampton and Tottenham, the potential for their attackers looks very limited over the coming period. Saints have registered six consecutive clean sheets, while Spurs have only conceded four goals over the same period. They have allowed seven and five big chances respectively over the last four Gameweeks, so perhaps there is a slight glimmer of hope. With the home clash against Man City also fairly testing, only the trip to Selhurst Park in Gameweek 29 looks a reasonable fixture, with the Eagles having let in eight goals over their last four matches. So although Daniel Sturridge (9.9) and Philippe Coutinho (8.0) showed their quality on their return from injury last time out against Aston Villa, the pair are unlikely to see any investment given the upcoming schedule, while Roberto Firmino’s 16% ownership in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) will likely be making alternative plans.
Both Man City and Tottenham feature in the top four for goal attempts and shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, so with Liverpool having only kept one clean sheet in their last seven matches, shut-outs in those two encounters appear very unlikely. Crystal Palace and Southampton have both been struggling for goals of late, managing four and three strikes respectively over the last four Gameweeks. The pair have only created five big chances apiece over the same period, but with both clashes on the road, defensive returns look far from assured. Like with the Reds attacking options, sales appear inevitable then, with Nathaniel Clyne (5.2) currently the highest owned Liverpool defender with a 20% ownership in FPL.
Everton
With the same two blanks on the Toffees schedule in Gameweeks 27 and 30, the only ray of light is the fact they face a trip to Villa Park in Gameweek 28. Remi Garde’s side have actually defended fairly well over the last four Gameweeks, conceding 32 shots from inside the box, the eighth most in the top flight, while only allowing seven big chances. Villa’s abject performance against Liverpool last time out suggests the likes of Romelu Lukaku (8.8) and Ross Barkley (7.4) could register big scores. A pretty tough home fixture against West Ham follows, though, with the Hammers allowing the third fewest number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks with 23. Further difficult matches against Arsenal and Man United are also on the agenda in the next six, so while there is a chance some Fantasy managers may decide to keep an Everton attacker for the trip to Villa, there looks very little chance of them remaining in our 15-man squads thereafter.
It’s a similar story from a defensive standpoint, with the Villa match-up looking very favourable. They’ve only created two big chances over the last four Gameweeks, scoring just two goals in the process. Defensive returns may be hard to come by in the Toffees other matches over the coming period, with both Arsenal and West Ham ranked in the top four for total goal attempts over the last four Gameweeks. Man United’s attacking statistics are less impressive, having created only four big chances over the last four Gameweeks, while they have failed to score in three of their last six home matches. A trip to Old Trafford remains a fairly tough fixture, though, so members of the Everton backline may continue to be ignored by the majority of FPL bosses, with Seamus Coleman (5.8) and Phil Jagielka (5.1) currently the highest owned Toffees defenders with ownerships of 6%.
Watford
The Hornets only have one blank to contend with, but with difficult fixtures against Man United, Leicester and Arsenal, there appears little upside in keeping faith in their main Fantasy assets. Those three teams have conceded four, three and two goals respectively over the last four Gameweeks, with the Foxes allowing the most big chances of the three over the same period with six. Their most favourable match-up in the next six does come at home to Bournemouth on Saturday, though, with the Cherries having conceded seven goals in their last four matches. Odion Ighalo (6.2) may earn a stay of execution by his 34% ownership in FPL this week, then, but with Stoke’s rearguard likely to be in better shape by Gameweek 31 with Ryan Shawcross potentially back to full fitness, the Nigerian – who has blanked in six of his last seven – looks likely to see a flurry of sales over the next few weeks.
The matches against Leicester and Arsenal looking particularly tough from a defensive point of view, with both clubs ranked among the top four for shots on target over the last four Gameweeks. Leicester have netted nine times over that period, while although Arsenal have only scored four goals, they have to be backed to find the back of the net at the Emirates. As was the case with Everton, a clean sheet at Old Trafford could also be beyond the Watford defence, leaving only the home clashes against Bournemouth and Stoke. The Cherries carry a decent attacking threat, averaging a chance every 7.5 minutes over the last four Gameweeks, placing them around halfway up the rankings. Stoke have only created two big chances over the same period, but their 3-1 win at Bournemouth in Gameweek 26 suggests they could be returning to form after failing to score in their previous four matches. Members of the Hornets backline look to hold limited appeal over the next month or so, then, and look dispensable after this weekend.
BE WARY OF…
Man United
Goals have been a problem for Louis van Gaal’s men, managing just five in their last four matches, and with testing fixtures at home to Arsenal and away to Man City, that could continue to put Fantasy managers off the likes of Anthony Martial (7.6). United do face reasonable matches against Watford and West Brom, although those two teams have only conceded five goals between them over the last four Gameweeks, while the home clash against Everton in Gameweek 32 is also fairly tough. With the Gameweek 30 blank also to contend with, the Red Devils’ attacking assets will struggle to stake a valid claim for a place in our 15-man squads right now.
There are some positives for the prospects of United defenders, with Watford and West Brom among the weakest attacks over the last four Gameweeks, with both ranked in the bottom four for goal attempts and shots from inside the box. With the other three matches (ARS, mci, EVE) unlikely to yield defensive returns, Chris Smalling’s 25% ownership in FPL could well decide to make alternative plans, given his hefty 6.7 price tag.
West Ham
After Saturday’s fairly favourable home fixture against Sunderland, the outlook for Hammers defenders looks pretty bleak. A home match against Tottenham and a trip to Goodison Park precede the Gameweek 30 blank, with encounters against Chelsea and Crystal Palace to follow. Tottenham and Everton have registered the most goal attempts of all 20 teams over the last four Gameweeks, while Chelsea have scored 10 goals in their last two home matches in all competitions. West Ham defenders look to hold little appeal after this weekend, then.
Chelsea and Everton have allowed one and three big chances respectively over the last four Gameweeks, so goals could be at a premium for the Hammers in those matches. The home encounters against Crystal Palace and Sunderland are fairly favourable, but with that match against Palace in Gameweek 32, owners of Dimitri Payet (8.3) may be considering their options after this weekend, considering the schedule to follow.
West Brom
The Baggies currently have no blank to consider over the next six Gameweeks (CPL, lei, MUN, ars, NOR, sun), although if Arsenal beat Hull in their FA Cup replay, their trip to the Emirates in Gameweek 30 will have to be rearranged. It’s West Brom defenders that have provided decent value so far this season, but with Sunderland looking much improved in attack in recent weeks, only the Crystal Palace and Norwich fixtures seem favourable in the next six. Given that Jonny Evans is ruled out and Gareth McAuley is still a doubt, the 5.1-priced Craig Dawson – who is also an injury concern – could be on his way out of many of our five-man backlines.
From an attacking perspective, the Palace and Norwich clashes appear the most likely to yield goals. Given that Tony Pulis’ side are the joint-second lowest scorers so far this season with 24 goals, Fantasy managers look certain to continue to ignore West Brom attackers.
