Watchlist

Watchlist Update – Mendy back on our FPL defender radar

With the international break almost over, we have taken the time to update the defenders on our Watchlist.

There hasn’t been a great deal of change since our post-Gameweek 7 refresh, though there is one returning name that leaps out: Manchester City’s Benjamin Mendy (£6.2m).

Mendy takes the place of the unfortunate Aymeric Laporte (£5.7m) in fifth place, who has recorded four straight clean sheets for the reigning champions and is likely a safer route into the City backline than the fit-again full-back.

We can’t ignore the explosive potential of Mendy, however, particularly with Pep Guardiola’s troops next up against a Burnley side who have conceded more chances than any Premier League club this season, including a league-worst 24 opportunities from their right flank.

Southampton also visit the Etihad in Gameweek 11, but we’ve stopped short of a “favourable fixtures” tag for Mendy with Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United also to come over the next month.

A Fabian Delph (£5.3m)/Leroy Sane (£9.2m) partnership on the left flank remains an alternative option for Guardiola in the future, but since Mendy walked straight back into the team against Liverpool after recovering from injury and was an ever-present before getting sidelined, we don’t believe he warrants a “rotation risk” flag – yet.

Andrew Robertson (£6.3m) moves up to the top of our Watchlist for defence and now has a “favourable fixtures” tag to his name, given that Huddersfield Town, Cardiff City and Fulham are to face Liverpool before the November international break. No club has a better pairing of fixtures over the next two Gameweeks than Jurgen Klopp’s side.

The four highest-scoring defenders in FPL, indeed, rather unsurprisingly make up our top four on the Watchlist.

Marcos Alonso (£7.0m) hasn’t delivered an attacking return since Gameweek 4 but has compensated with clean sheets in two of those matches, so just about clings on to his “A” form rating.

Alonso and Chelsea have three home league fixtures in their next four outings, though with Manchester United the visitors to Stamford Bridge this weekend the Spanish left-back hasn’t been handed a positive or negative fixture tag.

Alonso’s underlying attacking numbers have unquestionably deteriorated over the last month, but the Chelsea man has been written off before and still retains the canny knack to deliver a monster haul after a period of dormancy. The next four fixtures will hopefully tell us if the drop-off in KPIs was merely a lull and not as a result of specific instruction from Maurizio Sarri.

Faith in the Fantasy community hasn’t wavered, either – Alonso’s ownership has increased after every round of fixtures this season and the Spanish international in fact rose in price again this week.

No player quite warrants an “A” form rating as much as Matt Doherty (£4.7m), who has delivered three double-digit hauls in the last four Gameweeks. We’ve elevated the newly capped Irish international up to third on our Watchlist, with four enticing-looking fixtures to come in the next half-dozen matches.

Doherty might be a season-keeper for a large percentage of Fantasy managers and would appear set to feature on our Watchlist for some time given the value he is providing at a still-reasonable £4.7m: no FPL defender has registered as many penalty box touches as the Wolves wing-back in 2018/19.

The return to fitness of Serge Aurier (£5.8m) means there is sufficient doubt to leave the “rotation risk” flag on Kieran Trippier (£6.3m), even if the Spurs right-back has started the last seven Premier League matches for the Lilywhites – the longest sequence of successive league starts that Trippier has managed in his three years in north London.

Trippier’s form rating remains unchanged after 22 FPL points in three Gameweeks.

The remaining five defenders in our top ten are all familiar names as they retain their places from the pre-Gameweek 8 Watchlist.

Shane Duffy (£4.5m), Ben Chilwell (£5.0m) and DeAndre Yedlin (£4.5m) all have “favourable fixtures” to come in the coming weeks and months, with their respective clubs sitting in the top three on our Season Ticker for the next Gameweeks.

The trio have contrasting forms, however, with Duffy very much the pick of the three with a clean sheet and three goal involvements in his last four Gameweeks.

Chilwell has yet to record a goal or assist in 2018/19 but only three defenders (Holebas, Trippier and Robertson) have created more chances than the Leicester full-back this campaign.

Yedlin gets an “up” arrow as Newcastle’s fixtures have taken a huge turn for the better: the Magpies now don’t face one member of the “big six” until Boxing Day. The American full-back has created more chances for his team-mates than the rest of the Magpies’ backline combined and is available at an attractive price, though Jamaal Lascelles’ (£4.8m) price is heading in the right direction from a bargain-lover’s point of view and he may soon enter our thinking.

Were it not for Everton’s inability to regularly keep clean sheets and some awful away fixtures ahead, Lucas Digne (£4.8m) would be higher than ninth on our Watchlist. Only Harry Maguire (£5.5m) has had more shots among defenders over the last four Gameweeks, with the French full-back also registering six key passes during that period.

Digne’s game is well rewarded on the Bonus Points System, with the former Barcelona defender impressively registering a Baseline BPS every 5.4 minutes.

Jose Holebas (£4.9m) is suspended for Gameweek 9 and has amassed only one point over the last four matches but just about makes it into tenth place with some enticing fixtures against Huddersfield, Newcastle and Southampton to enjoy upon his return from a one-match ban.

Having averaged only 2.2 points over the last five Gameweeks and with an away trip to Chelsea to come in Gameweek 9, Luke Shaw (£5.1m) drops out of our thinking for the time being.

Our summary of the movers and shakers on the midfielders’ and forwards’ Watchlists will follow later in the week.

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1,256 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Is JJ Shelvey an ok pick as a 5th mid, always seems to control the mdf, just prone to the odd disciplinary issue.. Any thoughts?

    1. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Do you like -3s and suspensions?

    2. AuFeld
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Who is JJ Shelvey?

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        The future of England

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Why would you get Shelvey when you could get Kenedy for cheaper who's on pens?

      1. Warby84
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        I’m not overly keen on Newcastle assets but currently on Hughes as 5th, so maybe should just leave, it’s not a priority..

      2. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        You reckon he's still on pens after that pathetic attempt vs Cardiff?

    4. Ross From Friends
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      I don't know, he is a scary looking fella

    5. Ross From Friends
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      He was staring at the camera once and I had nightmares of his face / bald head for a week

  2. Parm
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Shaqiri captain is actually going to do bits this week.

    1. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Sturridge maybe

  3. Mooster©️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Shaw to Mendy or TAA? Already have Robertson.
    And what about Ings to Arnie for a -4???

    1. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      No chance, Ings can outscore Arnie this GW.

      1. Mooster©️
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        tnx!

    2. FF Dirtbag
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Arnie can wait a week. Mendy is a great option if you can get him.

      1. jtreble
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Agree.

      2. Mooster©️
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        I agree as well! tnx

  4. FF Dirtbag
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Can I get a vote on the below options to finish my WC team off:

    A) fabianski and 4.4m mid
    Or
    B) 4m GK and Kenedy

    Patricio ???
    Alonso Robertson TAA Doherty AWB
    Hazard Mane Richarlison Fraser ???
    Aguero Vardy Arnautovic

    1. child of God
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      A for me

    2. N00B
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      B for me. The problem with A is I was constantly picking the wrong GK. You also want ManC D cover.

    4. DeathoftheParty
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      B but with Hughes

  5. child of God
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Alonso or mendy

    1. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Alonso for me.

    2. N00B
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Mendy

    3. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Alonso

  6. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    With aurier fit, what is the chances of trippier rested at weekend?

    Is it worth a - 4 to do trippier to mendy?? Will it pay itself back over coming weeks?

    Team for this week with ft used Will be

    Patricio (hamer)
    Alonso robbo trippier (awb peltier)
    Salah hazard richi Madison (stephens)
    Kun mitro ings

    Thanks

    1. child of God
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Not worth a hit imo

    2. Mesh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Not for a hit.
      Similar tram to mine. Do you still have a wildcard?

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Yes.....wildcard still available

        Just think the hit on trippier to mendy could easily pay itself back this weekend...

        Would never do a hit for a defender. Bit I do fancy this one

        1. Mesh
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          When do you plan on wildcarding?

          1. Flynny
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Not sure. Just don't think I need it now.

            Never been anywhere so far into the season without playing it - and usually end up making my team worse.

            Guess I'll hold onto it until I have a bad week - or to tidy it up before Xmas...

  7. Bonus magnet
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Hi all

    Been away for a bit
    Any importent injuries I May have missed ?

  8. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Whats the worst first name in FPL in terms of player quality? Need more than 1 to be eligible.

    Can anyone beat Jonjo?

  9. GW9 DS, Fixture and clean sheet odds
    G-Whizz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    GW9 DS, Fixture and clean sheet odds

    Last week Spurs (441DS) could only score a solitary goal but was still victorious over Cardiff. Manchester United (435DS) overcame a two goal deficit at Old Trafford to beat Newcastle 3-2 and Chelsea who appeared with a 335DS beat Southampton 0-3.

    GW8 DS accuracy was around: 53%
    Last week's stats can be found here:
    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/19017391

    GW9 Doosra stats
    ARS: 359
    BOU: 190
    BHA: -154
    BUR: -538
    CDF: 60
    CHE: 40
    CRY: -168
    EVE: 168
    FUL: -60
    HUD: -382
    LEI: -359
    LIV: 382
    MCY: 538
    MUN: -40
    NEW: 154
    SOT: -190
    TOT: 305
    WAT: -194
    WHM: -305
    WLV: 194
    (Doosra gives a more detailed explanation of these numbers here: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/16458109)

    Manchester City (538DS) lead the way with Liverpool (382DS) next followed by Arsenal (359DS) in third.

    GW9 Fixture odds can be found here:
    http://prntscr.com/l6sv7f
    (Provided by Betfair)

    GW9 clean sheet odds
    Man City: 1.61 62%
    Liverpool: 1.72 58%
    Wolves: 2.20 45%
    Chelsea: 2.30 43%
    Newcastle: 2.37 42%
    Everton: 2.50 40%
    Arsenal: 2.62 38%
    Bournemouth: 2.87 35%
    Tottenham: 2.87 35%
    Brighton: 3.25 31%
    Cardiff: 3.30 30%
    Fulham: 3.75 27%
    Crystal Palace: 4.5 22%
    Southampton: 4.50 22%
    Watford: 4.50 22%
    Man Utd: 5.0 20%
    West Ham: 5.0 20%
    Huddersfield: 8.0 13%
    Leicester: 8.0 13%
    Burnley: 23.0 4%
    (Provided by Betfair)

    Last week Newcastle made light work of Manchester United's 53% chance of a clean sheet by scoring twice whereas Tottenham (50%) came through. The third highest ranked chance was Burnley (48%) and they disappointingly for their managers drew 1-1 with Huddersfield.
    Wanted to use an odds comparison website but couldn't find one within time. If anyone can recommend one that would be great, I need it to be able to show both decimal and fractional odds 🙂

    On a personal note, rose one place to 19th in the Mods and Cons League:
    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/standings/29077/classic

    With me trying to fight off boredom during the International Break, it made me have a look at my Dreamteam where in our League somehow I'm ranked 9th out of 284 teams with 511 points.

    Here's a look at the top 3 after GW8:
    1) On Yer Ederson (P Burns) 540 (68) points
    2) I Cayman I Saw And I Conquered (C Windham) 532 (56) points
    3) Baldlife Killerz (M Mckitterick) 529 (40) points

    Just watched the Scoutcast so glad to get that FPL feeling back! Hope you all have a great GW, good luck everyone!

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      My man! 😀

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Enjoy!

    2. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      4% for Burnley? Agüero and Sterling it is.

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        The fixture odds and DS stats do nothing to change that either lol

        1. noquarternt
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah Man City are taking on Barcelona type betting stats from Pep's years there. Remember seeing home fixture odds of 1.08 and even a 1.06. The bookies really like them.

    3. GianniBanani
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Whoa, my def line is made from top 4 teams in this chart

      Massive twopointer's incoming!

      1. Tired and weary
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Ha ha snap - RAM + Doherty

    4. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      I use Oddschecker for odds comparisons. And if you need to convert between decimal/fractional/implied probabilities, you can use this: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Thank you so much Reedy!!!

        1. Reedy
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          No problem!

    5. LosBlancos
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Great post!
      Keep it up

    6. BoleynWin
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Hats off to you chap, these are the sort of posts I’m looking for. Cheers!

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Thank you, and hats off to you too, what a great username 😆

    7. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      cheers,G-Whizz.

    8. WesMantooth
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      You could use betbrain.com

      1: you Get the percentages right away without running them through a converter.
      2: you can change between multiple oddsformats (click on the "person" in the topcorner)
      3: you can get load of bookies if you register. Registration is free.
      4: finding games, and markets within games is very intuitive. For example in the man C v Burnley game, theres "sharp bookies" like Pinnacle in the market for "team goals over/under". This will make the percentages more accurate.

      Check this link: https://www.betbrain.com/football/england/premier-league/manchester-city-v-burnley-fc/#/team-score-over-under/ordinary-time/

    9. XabiAlonso
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Nice one I like these numbers. May look at a Newcastle defender for my wildcard

  10. GianniBanani
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    What I have? Mane(9.8) + 3.0itb + 0FT

    Do I need Salah/Sterling for -4

    or

    do I need to leave it and play Maddison/Bennet if Mane won't play?

  11. King Henrik
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Any advice for me lads please? 2 free transfers !

    Patricio
    Alonso Trippier Doherty Taa
    Hazard Maddison Son Fraser
    Aguero Kane

    Hennessey Jimenez Wan-B Musuaku

    My plan was to take out Kane and Son and replace with Arnie and Salah ??

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah they are good options, maybe play Jimenez vs Soton..

    2. child of God
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      I'd wait for presser first but the moves are good

    3. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Sounds good bringing in Salah and Arnautovic. Would u consider Sterling and Lacazette instead or even Mane and Firmino?

  12. King Henrik
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Please choose one.

    A. Salah and Arnie
    B. Sterling and Lacazette
    C. Mane and Firmino

    1. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Please may I choose A?

    2. GianniBanani
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      A for me.

  13. Manani
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    got Mane and Fraser, do I keep both?

    could backfire horribly if they both played and I transfer them out

    1. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Got both as well. Gotta wait for pressers, although Fraser looks like an 'international injury'.

      1. FPL Forward Thinker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        I have both too and will give my subs a run out if any no shows....I just wanna carry transfers as I’m planning 3 GW10 transfer for a -4.

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Think ‘Fraser 18 pts’ from just a few weeks back. Wait till Friday or Saturday to decide as time will tell.

    3. GianniBanani
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Same story. I'm waiting with 3.0 itb for any info by Klopp. If i had to transfer Mane out, I would want to go for Salah, but he's is also a doubt...

      1. GianniBanani
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        Also have Maddison and Bennett on the bench so won't be a disaster, but really don't like freezing 10kk in injured, out of form player.

    4. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Keep for me.

    5. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Fraser never seems to fit for Scotland..

  14. HD7
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Chances of Mane playing in the Gw or early to say?

    Chances of Fraser?

    1. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Think Fraser is probably alright, but no clue with Mané. Wait for pressers.

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      I think both will start tbh

  15. EMBOLOFAN
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    A: mendy + wilson/murray
    B: alonso + jiminez

  16. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    B, Jimenez is a cracking option and value for money,

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Reply above

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        ty

  17. N00B
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Dont you think Chelsea defence is overrated or a bit lucky in last games? Southampton (1.44 xG), West Ham (1.44 xG) and Bournemouth (0.95) had so many good chances against them.

    1. GianniBanani
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Nah, liverpool was lucky to score against them.

    2. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Still pretty low xG against. Throw in their extroadinarily good defensive unit and think it's looking pretty good.

  18. yakirh
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Need some advise

    Current team:
    Fab
    Alonso Robbo Pereira
    Hazard Mane* Richarlison Fraser
    Kane Laca Mitro

    Hamer Shaw Bissaka Hojbjerg
    1FT 0ITB

    Thinking about this move:
    Shaw Kane -> Kun (C) Doherty (-4)

    And if Mane is out then do Mane -> Sterling for another hit

    Thing is I can do all 3 transfers with exact cash, so can't have Doherty rising tonight.

    Get Doherty now to keep this move alive, or wait for news first?

    1. yakirh
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      *Shaw and Fraser are flagged too

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Be patient and good things will come.

  19. Is Lacazette’s conversion rate sustainable?
    Pacer.
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 months ago

    Interesting scoutcast with discussion about Lacazette and shots on target / sustainability and comparisons to vardy etc, asking if Lacazette could be that player...

    This is where the eye test comes in, and perhaps some examination of his history. Lacazette IS that player. I'm not saying he's guaranteed to, just that this is what he does, and if he's playing well, he will do it. The lad is a pure striker. He won't make that many chances for himself or make himself available for a dozen chances a game, he's not Salah, but you give him 2-3 sniffs at close quarters and he will bury one of them. Love players like that.

    1. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      I like Lacazette from his Lyon days, and it’s just a matter of time before he recreates that form... Just needs the service now..

    2. Arctic monkeys
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      Didn't regret starting with him after all 😀

    3. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 6 months ago

      What was his record like last season and at Lyon?

      1. Pacer.
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 6 months ago

        91 goals in 129 appearances after he really broke onto the scene.

        50% shots on target (saved our converted) from 2.7 total shots per 90 minutes. Stats don't lie here, at Lyon he was DEADLY

        1. panda07
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Interesting but do you have his conversion rate at Lyon and last year to see if he can keep this up?

          1. Pacer.
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            22% of shots in the last 3 years of his Lyon career, not including pens

            1. internal error
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Interesting. Its under 27% for the 5 games he has started this season

              1. internal error
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                *just under

            2. panda07
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              He scored 14 goals with 22 big chances last year

              This year, 4 goals with 4 big chances

              This year is a smaller sample but I would expect some regression

              1. Pacer.
                • 9 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                It's quite interesting comparing his stats to kuns. Nearly 50% of Kuns shots in the box have been blocked this year. Only 14% of Lacas have. Depending how they calculate shots on target in the box this may go some way to explaining why despite kuns much heavier general box stats, laca has managed almost the same number of shots on target. Very small number of games so we could just be seeing differences in the defensive quality /tactics of opposition, or it might suggest that Laca is shooting from further out, is better at finding space, or that Kun is more heavily marked, or just liable to hoof the ball at defenders. Stark and interesting difference though

                1. MTPockets
                    5 years, 6 months ago

                    But you should probably add that Aguero has more than double the shots and shots in the box, and still has about 40% more shots on target (about the same if you adjust for averages per appearance).
                    There's not much almost-the-same about it.

                    1. Pacer.
                      • 9 Years
                      5 years, 6 months ago

                      Laca has 50% of the box shots and 73% of the shots on target of Kun. Almost the same is a bit of an exaggeration, but its a significant accuracy discrepancy.

                      Kun does appear to have had more shots that usual blocked (range is 25-40% last four years)

                      1. MTPockets
                          5 years, 6 months ago

                          I don't think that's a good way to compare statistics when one player's gross and net numbers still well trump another's, thus likely at an accuracy/success rate with higher probabability of being sustainable. Might be better to adjust in terms of price value.

                          1. Pacer.
                            • 9 Years
                            5 years, 6 months ago

                            The comparison is purely there to try to understand why lacazette has such a spectacularly high shooting accuracy, which helps us to understand whether that accuracy is sustainable. If his accuracy is higher on account of few of his shots being blocked (relative to another top striker) then understanding why few are blocked might help determine sustainability.

                          2. MTPockets
                              5 years, 6 months ago

                              Depends on interpretation of stats. His shots on target were all in 4 games - WHU, car, EVE, ful.

                              If we ignore GW1 and 2 due to limited minutes and no SoT, one interpretation might say he had exceptional accuracy in 2/3 of games rather than high accuracy overall.

                              The question then is - is there something about those 4 teams?
                              Yes 3 of them are in the top 4 for SoT conceded (and only 1 attempt/SoT vs the other)

                              So is he super accurate vs. has he just faced the ideal opponents for this appraisal measure?

                            • Pacer.
                              • 9 Years
                              5 years, 6 months ago

                              All fair points and something we will learn more about as this developing arsenal face stronger defences

                      2. panda07
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 11 Years
                        5 years, 6 months ago

                        Yeah teams crowding the box vs City would explain some of the difference but 50% vs 14% is huge.

                        This could change soon if Arsenal keep up their form but teams are in such fear of City after the season they had last year that Kun usually has a lot of players around him when he gets a chance.Hmmm Kun to Laca could be an option

                      3. panda07
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 11 Years
                        5 years, 6 months ago

                        Laca's efficiency should be good for bonus points too I'm guessing?

                        1. Pacer.
                          • 9 Years
                          5 years, 6 months ago

                          I don't know enough about the components of the equation used to calculate this, but yeah anecdotally I do recall Suarez, and this year Salah too, have to earn their bonus with sheer weight of output (goals /assists) whereas more efficient players, in terms of creatively and output (e.g hazard) get more baps despite fewer goals. Was Costa a baps monster when he wasn't getting booked I wonder. He often had an apparently unsustainable conversion rate too

              2. panda07
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                I'm not trying to have a go but the eye test is always going to look good when he's been banging in every chance he gets. The question is can he keep it up? From memory he wasn't this lethal last year but players can improve after settling into a club and improving with experience. The jury is still out for me.

                1. Pacer.
                  • 9 Years
                  5 years, 6 months ago

                  Wasnt he playing as a winger last year?

                  While you're never going to be able to take stats from a previous team and say 'this is what he will do' because there isn't sufficient depth in the stats I can find to tell me about the quality of the chances he received, we can at least make the general observstion that his current stats (42% accuracy, 21% conversion) are compatible to his time playing as a striker at Lyon (49% accuracy, 22% conversion). Very efficient player.

                  1. panda07
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    5 years, 6 months ago

                    He did play some games on the wing but the majority were as CF.

                    You are making a good argument though. Maybe he scores more than his fair share of non-big chances.

                    1. Pacer.
                      • 9 Years
                      5 years, 6 months ago

                      I am definitely wary myself, and because of his pricing I'm unlikely to opt for him and instead wait and watch. I just think that he is potentially that player who breaks the expected goals equation.

              3. noquarternt
                • 8 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                Weren’t loads penalties?

                1. Pacer.
                  • 9 Years
                  5 years, 6 months ago

                  He scored about 20 from open play each year and the pens are not included in his 22% conversion rate.

          2. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            He hasnt had "sniffs in close quarters" though. Hes had a few ridiculous goals that he will score very seldom even if hes a top, top quality player that will consistently outscore his xG. Even if you think the xG assessments are too low (for instance he got 0.05 xG for his goal against Everton), hes outperforming it massively.

            He would need to get into more clear scoring opportunities closer to goal for me to believe he IS that player

            1. how now brown cow
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Sniffs in close quarters.

              Love it.

            2. noquarternt
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              I agree with this. He's proving he's an above average player, but no one can consistently put 0.05s away.

              Definitely a good option through his good fixtures though.

              1. Pacer.
                • 9 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                Check his stats from last three years at Lyon. He's deadly

                1. Pacer.
                  • 9 Years
                  5 years, 6 months ago

                  Across the last 3 seasons he converted 22% of his shots (not including pens)

          3. TAT
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Looking at ways to get him in. For me it would require going him over Agüero, which is risky.

          4. Wakanda
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Arsenal is poor.

          5. Eden Wizard
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Devil's advocate groupthink says, no.
            It's always a no round here.

          6. Balotellitubbies
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            No. Think people getting him now is a bit late to the party. Must find another one, I hear that Vardy is having one possibly?

        2. FFPro
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Any West Ham fans about?

          Wondering who is more nailed long term out of Masuaku and Obiang. Thanks in advance.

          1. FPL Forward Thinker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            More to the point would any West Ham fans have either of these two near their fantasy football teams?

            1. FFPro
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              I'm on WC and looking for a 4.4 mid bench fodder. Just need someone nailed who won't drop to 4.3.

            2. BoleynWin
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              My take on WHU options from an FPL perspective (12 year season ticket holder if that holds any weight):

              Arnie - obviously the main man.
              Anderson - The most creative midfielder we have, will rake in assists & a goal or two over the next 8 gameweeks.
              Balbuena - Nailed in defence alongside Diop until Reid returns in the new year, some great saving tackle & future bonus potential.
              Fabianski - Save & CS points

              Oh and once Lanzini comes back to the first team he is on par with Arnie for potential attacking returns so feel free to bookmark away!

          2. BoleynWin
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            In short, Obiang. Reasoning is that we are so short in that midfield role he automatically becomes nailed. Masuaku will have reduced minutes once Creswell is back from injury & eased in as he is the better defender of the two.

            1. FFPro
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Thank you sir, Obiang was my preferred option. Was wondering what was going on with Cresswell.

            2. Manani
              • 12 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              cresswell is already on the bench last few games though.

              is he just not match fit enough? I remember him playing 1 game a few weeks back, then got benches afterwards

        3. SuperMane Returns
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Hey guys, what's your thoughts on this WC squad?

          Fabianski
          TAA/Robertson/Doherty
          Sterling/Maddison/Siggurdson/Hazard
          Aguero/Vardy/Murray

          (Hamer/Brooks/Duffy/Bednarek)

          Thanks in advance 🙂

          1. FPL Forward Thinker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            8/10 for starting XI,
            5/10 for bench

            1. SuperMane Returns
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Thanks Qo10's, can you suggest any improvements on my bench?

          2. SuperMane Returns
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Gives me 5 first choice pen takers too

        4. Mooster©️
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Soooooo.....
          A Shaw to Mendy or
          B DSilva to Sterling?

          1. dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            A

            1. Mooster©️
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              tnx

          2. FPL Forward Thinker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Easy A for me

            1. Mooster©️
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              tnx, done!

          3. korbendallas82
            • 10 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            As a sad United supporter, A. I wish i could say, stick with Shaw. But you can not Trust United..

            1. Mooster©️
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              it is so sad to watch united these days.. cant even trust de gea.

        5. TAT
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Crazy thought:
          Kane/Mitro/Steve Cook > Agüero/Lacazette/Bennett for a -8?

          1. FPL Forward Thinker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Not crazy if you genuinely think you’ll gain your eight points back over next couple of weeks.

            1. TAT
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              I really don't know! Have some ground to make up at
              305k, and template teams are everywhere now (for a reason, of course).

              1. FPL Forward Thinker
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                I wouldn’t do it personally as I think Kane and Mitrovic will score this weekend

                1. TAT
                  • 6 Years
                  5 years, 6 months ago

                  That wouldn't be surprising. These moves would be long term ones, of course.

          2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Crazy indeed

            1. TAT
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Yeah, probably. Need to do some "different" kind of transfers eventually, though.

              1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
                • 8 Years
                5 years, 6 months ago

                I think Kane is Aguero is better than your proposed -8

                1. TAT
                  • 6 Years
                  5 years, 6 months ago

                  Planning that move for free in any case. The extra cash will come in handy.

        6. Jealous Viper
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Strongly considering the Liverpool double up with Lowton to TAA. Already have robbo. High risk, high reward

          1. panda07
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Not high risk when you look at the fixtures, no need to diversify in fantasy football just look for highest expected points

          2. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Wouldn't even say it's high risk. Good move.

        7. Monkey Hanger
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Just watched the end bit of the first part of tonights Scoutcast. Andy's face when the 'Lets Talk FPL' logo appears on the screen is a real treat. 🙂

          1. I Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Hahaha yes that was amazing.

        8. I Member
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Not a fan of planning a transfer the week after Wildcarding but thoughts on having Sterling just for this week and keeping some money in the bank to get Salah in for him against Cardiff?

          1. Mooster©️
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Would keep Sterling.

          2. Jealous Viper
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Logic is sound enough although personally and depending on the press conference I'll just have Salah straight in anyway

          3. BoleynWin
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            I’m guilty of planning those moves in the past, the dilemma is Sterling will likely haul & then you won’t want to remove him after double digit returns. Always the way! Look long term on the WC, I’ve activated mine this week too so same boat

          4. Netley Lucas
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Maybe, had he not played 168' in the break

          5. yakirh
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Great plan

        9. Delhidynamo
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Time for Lallana to shine

        10. BoleynWin
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          I see a lot of talk about Sturridge, Lallana, Shaq all taking the place of Liverpool’s big guns this weekend.

          I don’t personally think Klopp can risk it with looking at City home to Burnley, he won’t want to lose ground in the league so will surely play a full strength squad. Confidence plays a big part too & both Salah and Mane could do with a consistent run of games to get back on track. Just thinking out loud anyway, we will see Saturday!

          1. noquarternt
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Yeah but if they’re injured...

        11. LosBlancos
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 months ago

          Only things not pointing to City destroying Burnley is that even though Burnley are top for shots in the box and total shots conceded (last 4 GWs) - they are 9th best for shots in the box conceded (and mid table for Big Chances conceded). Historically Burnley tends to park the bus well as well, and Burnley's defense is known for blocking shots (Dyche insists on it from his players).

          Burnley has played wol BOU car HUD in that time, where they have scored 3 goals. Alternatively City have played FUL car BHA liv in the last four, where they have scored 10 (BUT 8 of those 10 were against FUL and car, who didn't play very defensively - the MCI vs bur game is most likely to resemble the MCI vs bri game in terms of tactics).

          So, a case can be made either way.

          A) Since Burnley have conceded the most shots in the league against poor/decent teams, City will blow them away with 5+ goals
          B) Since Burnley are known to be resilient when "parking the bus", they wont ship more than 2-3 goals

          Additionally, it is interesting that ManU are 3rd worst for shots on target conceded in the last 3 GWs, and Cardiff are awful when looking at shots in the box conceded, total shots conceded and big chanced conceded. Maybe Hazard or Mitrovic are the best captain choices fixture wise after all.

          1. MTPockets
              5 years, 6 months ago

              Don't understand this part:
              "...Burnley are top for shots in the box and total shots conceded (last 4 GWs) - they are 9th best for shots in the box conceded..."

          2. adam28193
            • 10 Years
            5 years, 6 months ago

            Hmmm Trippier to Mendy or Robbo?