Members

What the expected goal data tells us about Fantasy assets

Fantasy managers who sign up as a Member to our website get access to a huge array of player and team statistics.

Among the underlying stats on offer is expected goal (xG) data, which many will be familiar with already.

For the uninitiated, xG is the measure of a quality of a chance based on criteria such as proximity of goal and angle of attempt.

For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

Along the same lines, expected assist (xA) data calculates the quality of chance being created.

Expected goal data doesn’t predict when goals will be scored and isn’t a crystal ball for the future – rather, it is a measure of chances created in the past.

Nevertheless, many find xG data useful.

Fantasy managers can use the information to see which players are consistently being presented with – or providing – high-quality opportunities, which in turn can be helpful when making future team selections.

The rest of this article will be dedicated to looking at the xG data available in our Members’ Area, drawing attention to the players who have had significant expected goal involvement in 2019/20 so far and those who are under/overachieving based on their actual output.

Below are some of the most commonly used expected goal categories in our Members’ Area and the players featuring prominently in the respective tables.

While four matches is a small sample size, some familiar names are already leading the way.

All prices given in the tables and in the copy were correct at the time of writing (Friday).

Lessons learned from Gameweek 4

689 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Teomi
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Exact cash to do:

    Kane and Hayden out to barnes kdb in for -4

    Y or N?

    1. All For One
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    2. Davros
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      I like that

      1. Davros
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Assuming all come thru IB intact

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Yes good move's

  2. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Which transfer is better? If i do one cant do the other

    A) King---> Barnes

    or

    B) Robbo---> TAA

    1. Teomi
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A imo

    2. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. All For One
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. Davros
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A.
      I’ve changed to TAA from Robbo as on a WC but Robbo could easily outscore next time

    5. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

  3. All For One
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    A)Pope, Salah, Son,
    B)Mane, James, Haller

    A or B guys?

    1. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      How pope is in there?!?!?!?!?
      Bad question

      1. All For One
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Will make 3 transfers

      2. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        I think he means Pepe

        1. All For One
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          yeh Pepe lol my bad

          1. Wild Rover
            • 13 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            A

            1. All For One
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              thanks

          2. MTPockets
              4 years, 6 months ago

              But that means option A costs about 6m more

      3. MTPockets
          4 years, 6 months ago

          doesn't make sense

        • Davros
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          That is a bizarre A/B

        • Shineonme
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          B for me

          1. AndyCook
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Saves a fortune too..

        • Pi
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Score Predictions for tonight please
          England- Bulgaria
          Lithuania- Ukraine
          Iceland-Moldova

          1. Maddi Son
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            England 3-0 Bulgaria
            Lithuania 1-2 Ukraine
            Iceland 2-1 Moldova

          2. Davros
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            2-0
            1-1
            2-1

          3. Hy liverpool
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            4-0
            1-1
            2-0

          4. Shineonme
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            2-0
            1-2
            2-0

        • Ask Yourself
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          England line up is clinically depressing. Trippier, Barkley, Keane, Henderson. How are these players England internationals ffs given the alternatives

          1. Ask Yourself
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Also I hope sterling isn’t on the right wing Jesus we aren’t as good as Man City creatively ffs

            1. diesel001
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Most international teams aren't as good as Man City creatively.

          2. Piggs Boson
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Trippier, Rice, Barkley is disappointing over TAA, Winks, Maddison 🙁

            Should be enough to win, but I guess he's rotating over the two games rather than developing a strong XI like Spain did during their spell of dominance.

            1. Piggs Boson
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              No Sancho too... jesus.

          3. diesel001
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Keane is ok IMO.

            Barkley needs a run of games (like 10-15 in a row) and Chelsea might not be the club for him now with Mount and RLC taking his place.

            Henderson is a good midfielder. There is a reason he is in Liverpool's first XI. Not the most creative, but if you want to press high you need mobile midfielders and he is one.

            Trippier - agree - should be behind TAA, AWB and Walker.

            1. Piggs Boson
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              I would say Henderson is our best central midfielder, and I'm a United fan...

            2. diesel001
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              England's best CBs are: Maguire, Stones, Keane and Gomez.

              One of the issues with CBs like Dunk, Mings, Tarkowski etc. is they come from clubs where they usually get a lot of midfield protection because they are often playing 'park the bus'. They then come into the England setup where that defensive protection is not there and get exposed.

              I prefer a worse CB who plays for a Top 6 team (or overseas equivalent) than a CB who plays for a very defensive team.

              Be interesting to see how Smalling does at Roma. If he gets his form back then he could be an option.

              1. Ask Yourself
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                I want him to play the back 5 again man that was the best

                1. diesel001
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Pickford
                  Gomez Stones Maguire
                  TAA Henderson Maddison Rice Chilwell
                  Kane Sterling

          4. Shineonme
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            You couldn't make it up. Selection is crap

        • Hy liverpool
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          England line up vs Bulgaria
          Players shirt numbers

          1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

          1. Party time
              4 years, 6 months ago

              it means england are due a heavy spanking

            • bitm2007
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Old school 1 to 11 the way every should be.

          2. Piggs Boson
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            England
            Pickford, Trippier, Keane, Maguire, Rose, Henderson, Rice, Barkley, Sterling, Kane, Rashford

            Subs: Alexander-Arnold???, Heaton, Chilwell, Gomez, Mings, Winks, Mount, Oxlade-Chamberlain 🙂 , Maddison, Sancho???err40????, Pope, Wilson

            1. Hy liverpool
              • 10 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Maddison is better than 10*Barkley

              1. Piggs Boson
                • 12 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Yeah, the stats certainly support that.

                But I'm sure Gareth has plan. He's had access to fitness data, and training performance, so I'm sure he knows what he's doing.

                There's a great video on the England youtube channel of them going through various tests in the gym to monitor their condition. Interesting video.

                  1. Hy liverpool
                    • 10 Years
                    4 years, 6 months ago

                    Hahaha sterling is making fun of TAA boots and saying is that the key for your assists.

            2. Ask Yourself
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Hopefully next game:
              Trippier > TAA
              Keane > Mings
              Henderson > Ox
              Barkley > Maddison
              Kane > Sancho

          3. Fpl Richie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            With suspension next game might Boly drop?
            Need a defender below 5m. At the moment Soyuncu looks the best bet, but Boly would be a good option.

            1. Ask Yourself
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              KWP back in training next week, hopefully fit for GW5

              1. Fpl Richie
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Would he be your pick?

                1. Ask Yourself
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  If I had to pick someone in that price point for now yes

          4. royals forever
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            In your opinion who is the best Perez replacement out of

            KDB
            James
            Lanzini

            for this Midfield

            Salah Sterling Mount Dendoncker xxxxxxxx

            Any ideas would be welcomed

            1. The Ejiptian King
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              One of these isn't like the others, obviously KdB is best but it depends what other changes they would mean.

              1. Eze Really?
                • 9 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Ed wood woodn't he?

            2. Poseidon.
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              James a lot better than Lanzini and KDB imo

              1. Aftermath
                • 8 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Better than kdb? Seriously?

                1. LSK
                  • 5 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Yes, this poster is always 100% serious

            3. Shineonme
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Kdb the Lanzini

          5. De Gea is GOAT
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            A) Mount, Barnes, Haller

            Or

            B) Lanzini, Pukki, Abraham/Barnes

            1. diesel001
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              B

            2. diesel001
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              But Mount, Pukki, Haller might be best

              1. De Gea is GOAT
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Thanks mate

                1. De Gea is GOAT
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Barnes has excellent fixtures though. Still not convinced by Haller tbh

            3. Shineonme
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              No contest B

            4. Shineonme
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Abrahams over Barnes

              1. De Gea is GOAT
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Thanks mate. Leaning towards that too. Not too worried about Abrahams rotation?

          6. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Son Haller or
            B sterling 4.5

            1. LSK
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              A if you have to play the 4.5 striker because you’d be playing with 10 men. B otherwise

              1. Eze Really?
                • 9 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Not playing a 4.5

                1. LSK
                  • 5 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  I’d feel safer with Sterling. Son and Haller will do well most of the season but Sterling will be either the top points scorer or 2nd

          7. LSK
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Gtg? Hope so because I’ve already used my transfer
            Pope
            VVD, Digne, Dunk, Lundstram
            Salah, Sterling, Anderson, Mount
            Aguero (c), Pukki
            Button, AWB, Cantwell, Wickham

          8. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            2 to start
            A). Pukki vs MCI
            B). Montoya vs BUR
            C). Digne vs bor

          9. Piggs Boson
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            "Lionel Messi will be allowed to leave Barcelona on a free transfer next summer, should the 32-year-old Argentina forward desire" - L'Equipe

            If City get Messi the league will be over before it has started.

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              But could he do it on a cold Tuesday night at stoke? As Andy Gray once famously said lol

            2. Shineonme
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              It's over already. City will win the title again without doubt. It's just a matter of time before they go top.

              1. Evo1983
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                I wouldn’t write Liverpool off so easily mate.

                1. George Sillett
                  • 8 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Booked for runners up. Squad depth will tell at some point.

            3. LSK
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              He should go to Liverpool and win them their first title in 30 years

          10. Maddi Son
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Closest I've ever got on Super 6 and it's nonsense fixtures.

            4 correct scores, 2 correct results with 5-10 mins to go.

            1. Yank Revolution
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Parlays are a ripoff, sucker's bet.

          11. Maddi Son
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Coventry 2 - 2 Blackpool
            Fleetwood 2 - 1 Oxford
            Wycombe 2 - 1 Lincoln
            Bradford 1 - 1 Northampton
            Mansfield 2 - 0 Scunthorpe
            Morecambe 1 - 2 Salford

          12. ‘Tis the Season
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Raz! Of course

          13. mlower
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Hello FFS moderators! When I look up TAA in the members data (player stats, defenders, sort by XGI), he is listed as having 1 assist and an XGA of .47, which sounds out of date to me. In this article, he appears with 2 assists and an XGA of 1.20, which sounds closer to current. How can I make sure I am getting the most up to date statistics? Thank you!

          14. FC Hakkebøf
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Is it crazy to bench Pukki and play Ceballos? This is my reasoning:

            1) I don't have a city defender. Most people have a City defender + Pukki and will likely play both. If Norwich (read: Pukki) do not score, they will gain 4 pts from their City defender. If Pukki do score, their City defender blank. Either way, one of their assets will get a blank.

            2) I reckon not a lot of people will play Ceballos, but I can easily see Arsenal score 2-3 goals and I find it likely that Ceballos will be involved given he is their most creative asset, whereas I find it hard to see Pukki scoring, as City will be on the ball 75 percent of the game.

          15. emuuli
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            A) AWB -> TAA & Siggy -> James
            B) Siggy -> Cantwell & Wickham -> Barnes

            Can't afford all of TAA, James, Barnes without destroying the rest of the team.
            PS: I have Robertson already and Pukki in attack.

            1. MTPockets
                4 years, 6 months ago

                A

              • MTPockets
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Old article btw

                  1. emuuli
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    4 years, 6 months ago

                    Ooh, didn't notice.. Thanks and thanks!