Pro Pundits - Simon

Are differentials always the most effective route to FPL success?

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March talks us through how effective differentials can be for the season run-in.


If you spend any time on Fantasy Football sites and forums which, if you’re reading this, you do, you’ll have noticed people talking a lot about ‘differentials’.

A ‘differential’, is a low-owned player, be that in overall FPL terms or in the context of a mini-league. There is no universal definition of what constitutes a differential in overall FPL, but it usually applies to players with sub-20% ownership with a ‘true differential’ being a player with sub-5%. Within discussions of differentials, a player becomes ‘more of a differential’ the lower his overall ownership.

What I’ll call; ‘differential theory’ refers to the idea that, if a low-owned player scores well they will, by virtue of their low-ownership, have a positive effect on the ranks of those managers that do own them.

The inverse of this philosophy is the apocryphal ‘Template’ which argues that, if your team resembles too many other teams, you won’t be able to advance up the ranks, strengthening the case for differentials. 

Discussions of differentials intensify toward the end of the season when people are making last-gasp attempts to move up the overall ranks or win their mini-leagues. But does differential theory actually work in practice?

Do Differentials Work?

Differential theory can work. Logically, if you own an otherwise low-owned player who has scored well, the likelihood that this will, when looked at in isolation, translate into a net benefit for you rank-wise should be quite high. Everyone has, at some point, benefitted from a differential and FPL is littered with examples of them paying off, so it’s something we tend to believe quite strongly in.

However, owning even a high-scoring differential won’t pay off on its own. For this to happen, the higher-owned alternatives also have to score fewer points. In other words; if a 5% owned player and a 50% owned player both score 10 points, their ownership percentages become less relevant. The differential has to outscore the more popular alternatives to have a net-positive effect.

As bookies and weathermen will be all too familiar with, when formulating the probability of an outcome, the more variables that you have to insert into the formula, the lower the probability of that outcome occurring typically becomes.

Gameweek 32+ Scout Picks focus on Arsenal, Wolves and Man United

The likelihood of your differential delivering a net positive score is, therefore; the probability of your differential scoring offset against the probability of a higher-owned player also scoring. Given that highly-owned players often score well (which is often why they’re highly-owned) and low-owned players often don’t (which is often why they’re low-owned), this is not a formula you would expect to pay off regularly and, maybe, not even very often.

You often see mention of “high risk, high reward” options on FPL forums but you will sometimes get the impression that, actually, they’re looking at ‘risk’ and ‘reward’ as if more risk equals more reward. Of course more risk may result in more reward on occasion, but your expected payoff will always be reward divided by risk so, on average, more risk will equal less reward.

Of course, differentials may be differentials because they’ve just come into the team or come back from injury. In such cases, their prospects might be much better, though these types of players naturally carry their own inherent risks.

Does ‘The Template’ Exist?

 1

So how do you move up the ranks then? Surely you can’t do it just by owning the well-owned players? Well, yes and no. If you take a look at my current team below, there aren’t many players who you would call a ‘true’ differential. In fact, only Mason Holgate (£4.3m) and Todd Cantwell (£4.6m) are under 15% ownership (13% each). In other words, it’s fairly ‘template’.

It might surprise people to learn therefore that not a single other manager in the top 10k has the same combination of players. Even if you remove my three lowest-owned players from the equation (the above plus Ings at 21%) only 0.11% or 11 people have the same team as me in the Top 10k.

While this isn’t conclusive proof that the ‘template’ is, in fact, a myth, it definitely suggests that we exaggerate its significance. This, of course, is less likely to apply to mini leagues with relatively few entrants, but I’m afraid that scenario is for another article.

Impact on FPL Strategy

What does this all mean for FPL strategy? Well, to me it suggests that focusing on differentials and ownership percentages won’t be as beneficial to your success as focusing on which players will score the most is likely to be. So, yet again, however complicated we make FPL, it ultimately still comes down to picking the players who will score the most points. There is a potential benefit to a good differential, but it’s important to ask yourself; are they ‘good’, and not just ‘different’. Will they really outscore the more popular alternatives?

In conclusion, while I wouldn’t rule out the benefit of a good punty differential, and there is definitely a time and a place for them (e.g. when you’re desperate or when you’re a bit drunk), placing yourself at the mercy of them too frequently will almost certainly not pay off over time.

The better option, I believe, is not to focus on ownership percentages at all but, instead, focus only on expected points. Over the course of a season, consistency, I believe, will always be the best differential.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 32+

1,031 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Cmon Rashford, Martial & Fernandes. Score some goals. (K)ane score more though.

    1. Bruce Lee
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      good job mate this post has officially secured points for Rashford, Martial, Bruno and Kane

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Hahahaha

      2. Salarrivederci
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Freakin hope so. Need some points at some point!

    2. evilfish
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Damn, should've got Kane and Rashford in.

    3. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Same 4, same captain - GL

  2. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    TOP 10k Effective Ownership stats
    1. Bruno 83%
    2. Rashford 69%
    3. Martial 46%
    My Captain is Martial and I own these 3 players now should I hope blanks for Rash and Bruno to gain rank or is it about combination ownership percentage? Please help me understand this. Thanks

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Only above 100% ownership will hurt your rank if he isn't your C

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No, dream all score big

    3. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      none of them above 100, you want them all to smash it up, although Martial more of course

    4. Rover
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      It means that if you own all three and have captained Martial then you want every single one of them to haul, bus especially Tony

    5. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No you wish for all players to get points, just you captain to get the most!

    6. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      thank you brothers

    7. HashAttack
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Only 10% have all three ... just want as many points as possible

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        thanks

    8. brianutd-why always we? 20
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Hope for blanks! Really, so why buy them just buy bench fodder then.

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I own Jimi too but was happy that he blanked as he had the highest captaincy % in top 10k

  3. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    It's time for the audition for United triple up in attack!

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Sneaky feeling of Pogba stealing the show

    2. Soto Ayam
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      The real audition is lamptey

  4. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    0-0 coming up

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      would be hilarious tbh, I'm all for it

  5. JohnnyRev7
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Been around FFS for 9 years. Gotta love the crap that gets written on here. Someone starts a rumour and within a few pages it's being quoted as fact and gospel. And then proved wrong. But it's all part of the game we love. And rightly so. YOU reading this just have to make your own decisions between fact or fiction. Good luck all!

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      if you're on about Bruno, no-one 'started a rumour', he played 120 mins the other day - and the GW had already started

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        if not then ignore me 😀 and good luck

    2. KunDogan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      This

    3. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      haha its fun too 😀

    4. Soto Ayam
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Fully agree. What makes me laugh is when people get mad that they took failed advice. Nobody forced em to do it

    5. JohnnyRev7
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I think you've both missed the point of my post. Never mind.

      1. JohnnyRev7
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Not aimed at you Lindelol and Soto Ayam.

        1. Soto Ayam
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

      2. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        good

    6. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Dream, wishes, delusion, fake news whatever you call it ... fabulous 😉

      1. JohnnyRev7
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I hear you. It's all the fun of the forum. 😉

  6. Amey
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    This is the game i wanted to see both Pogba Bruno in. Teams with no attacking threat. Sitting down deep (SHU are better team IMO so discounting that)
    Breaking down buses i mean ....

    Let's see ! Why is KO so late 😛

    1. BNMC
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      It is a huge bus from Brighton today...

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah 😀

    2. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Brighton have defended well since the restart too but can't see past a United win today. A lot of quality with Pogba and Bruno to unlock defences.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Agree.
        And bdw, congratulations man !
        Enjoy your undisputed era 🙂

        1. goriuanx
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks 🙂

          Football success is often in cycles, just have to enjoy it when it's your turn and give credit when it's others!

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            I know that. I'm doing exactly the same.
            Actually i like many players & the manager. But I'm jealous as hell (can't lie 🙂 )

          2. Long ago I drew a walrus
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Are you the poster known formerly as Berbinho's Forehead?

            1. goriuanx
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 9 months ago

              Yes

    3. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Sheff Utd were absolutely terrible against us, the worst I've seen them play all season.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I somehow missed that game buddy.
        Thanks for the information

  7. FPL_Devil
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Rashford Captain haul coming up:)

  8. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    You know what is the best thing about tonight's game?

    Pope isnt involved 😀

  9. Dybala10
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Sane news change people's opinions on Mahrez, who should pick up more minutes by default? Or happy with just KDB?

    1. Lucy2019
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I moved off KDB last week. Planning on keeping Mahrez and getting Foden. I like to take risks as my risk appetite is high.

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'm confused too.
      If Mahrej is benched vs Southampton, i think i will get him though before 34

    3. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Don’t think it changes anything - they must have been negotiating for ages

      Mahrez has started all games - he’s cheap and explosive

  10. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Hopefully my Bruno cap is about to punish all the martial fan boys

    1. Salarrivederci
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      You must have been changing diaper up until team news with those 120 Bruno minutes the other day 😉 !

      1. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Never, must win game you play your best side.

      2. KGFC
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        😆

  11. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    What?!?!! No Lingard??

    1. Lucy2019
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      New Jlingz clothing range launching so he us attending that in Paris.

    2. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Doesn’t play evening games, past his bedtime!

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      On call for DJ-ing

  12. BNMC
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Any Pogba owners here?

    1. Lucy2019
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Tumbleweed.

    2. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yep. Kept him cos I was asleep but don't mind actually, just hope he gets into the box a little more today and should return some points.

      Their best player, but probably not their best FPL asset.

  13. Bruce Lee
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    rip pop smoke - true legend

  14. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A tightly contested cagey 1-0 win Utd? Martial brought down, Bruno pen?

    Or Maybe a Pogba-Bruno inspired 7-0 walloping with Rashford & Martial hattricks??

    Hmmmm....

    I think it was the late, great Forest Gump that said it best:

    “Man Utd are like a box of chocolates - you never know what you’re gonna GET”

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Inconsistent 😉
      Let's hope we stride towards consistency !

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Really want to see something big from Pogba-Bruno tonight - if they’re both switched on & at it & Matic covers properly for them - good things should hopefully follow

        Greenwood, Martial, Rashford - that’s the future right there hopefully, particularly Greenwood - very exciting talent

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Hell of a finisher that lad
          Yes. Excited 🙂

    2. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      hoping for 3-3

  15. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    What are you hoping for from tonight's game?

    I own Martial and Maguire, so fairly straightforward for me. 1-0 or 2-0 United win with no Rash or Bruno involvement would be great.

    1. Bruce Lee
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      bro just read any other comment on this page lol

      they're all 'hope x scores 93 goals today with x having 24 assists'

      duyyyyyyyhhhh

  16. Woy_is_back
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Come on brighton, save my season

    1. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      no united asset? Woy?

  17. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Ole channeling channeling his inner Sven Goran-Eriksen with his interview technique

    “Well....”

  18. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Leicester confirm their fixtures remain unaffected despite a local lockdown

    1. Bruce Lee
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      wilcom to the team vamie jardy

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Leicester fan since 1960. I won't be bringing any Foxes in any time soon.

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          What has happened them?

          Safe to do Vardy > Rashford now?

    2. Lucy2019
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      My pal Matty Hancock already confirmed that this morning.

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Forgive me for not believing what members of the government say.

        1. Lucy2019
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          You been breaking lockdown rules?

          1. goriuanx
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            My eye sight is fine, so no need.

      2. JohnnyRev7
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Matt Hancock ... when the inevitable inquiry into how the government handled the pandandemic happens, I genuinely hope they revive some old witchcraft laws. Looking at his body language I'm pretty sure he can't swim and his presentation is so wooden, he pasts all the tests.

    3. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      £££££££

    4. JohnnyRev7
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      King Power stadium is a protected environment. Players arrive from protected environments. Never a doubt but thanks for the clarification Berbs.

  19. Indpush
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    0-2

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      A dull 1-1

  20. brianutd-why always we? 20
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Oh Bruno