Palace defence out of form ahead of Gameweek 36+ meeting with United

The Review: GW 35+

Hi everyone, welcome to The Review. Having a tough time deciding what transfers to make? Here I cast my eyes on FPL events, past and future, heading into GW36+:

(Data taken from FFScout with permission)

1) I start with the unlucky Mohamed Salah this week. Salah recorded as many big chances as Sterling (two each) and in fact, fared better for shots in the box (four vs three) and minutes per expected goal involvement (66 vs 74). Yet, if you were a Salah captainer and a Sterling non owner, the swing could have been as brutal as 40 points. The only thing standing between Salah and a Sterling-esque haul was Nick Pope, and a herculean-like performance from the Wall of Burnley ensured that it wasn’t to be Salah’s day. Sometimes, you’ve just got to accept the way the cookie crumbles as a FPL manager because the game is based on such fine margins. Easier said than done though.

2) Who is my captain this week? I will have a hard time looking past Raheem Sterling, yet again. Sterling stands joint with Antonio for most goals scored post the restart, and has an exceptional record against Bournemouth having scored nine times and earned two assists in his eight appearances against the Cherries. I think this has gone under the radar a bit, but I was surprised to see Sterling say that he was going to try for the Golden Boot. He mentioned he needed at least a hat-trick to stand a chance. He got it. I think this is one of the reasons I expect Sterling to start this week too, like Salah last GW. A quick glance through the City forums suggest that most of the fans expect De Bruyne to be rested, and if that is true, I think there’s an outside chance of Sterling being on penalties too given his motivation to win the Golden Boot.

3) Two City players who I think are more or less certain to play this week are Phil Foden and David Silva, given that both have had their rest. Foden has started the last three home games, and I can see that trend continuing here again. I expect him to start on the left in the front three, a position in which he started against Newcastle and according to the heat/position maps, he was the most advanced City player on the field. He was one of the most underperforming players that GW, having registered the most shots inside the box, big chances and penalty area touches of all City players so was he was extremely unlucky not to come out of that game with an attacking return. Expect his fortunes to swing. He would be my differential captain if you’re looking for one. I always target the City front three and Kevin De Bruyne in FPL so David Silva is a player I often overlook, but in the four games he has started post restart, he has recorded two big chances himself and created four big chances for his teammates so his numbers look decent too.

4) No player has accumulated as many shots in the box as Gabriel Jesus has over the past three GW’s. During this period, Jesus is ranked second for big chances as well and now looks far more involved as opposed to his peripheral role earlier. A nailed City striker under Pep will always be gold in FPL – only Agüero has a better minutes per goal involvement ratio in the league all season. Most City fans expect him to start this week, and if he does expect him to have some fun against an Aké less Bournemouth.

5) Palace’s defensive numbers seem to have fallen off a cliff since the league resumption. I think their statistics have nosedived because there is a lack of motivation among the players with nothing other than pride left to play for. This GW, they conceded four big chances to a Villa side who have had one of the worst xG’s from open play since the restart. No team has conceded more big chances or have had a worse xGc than Palace since the restart – if you are a Martial, Fernandes, Rashford or Greenwood owner expect the points to flow when United visit Selhurst next GW.

6) No team has conceded more shots in the box and big chances over the past two GW’s as Brighton. Granted they have played Liverpool and Man City over this spell, but their numbers over this spell have been borderline appalling. Danny Ings, who in the previous game against Everton recorded the highest number of touches in the opposition’s penalty area that an outfield player has managed all season, will be licking his lips. The fact that he has the highest goal involvement % of all players in the league to have played 1000+ minutes this season indicates that he’s likely to be involved in the goals when the Saints face Brighton and Bournemouth.

7) Jamie Vardy is back in business in the attacking charts yet again. The Leicester forward is second only to Jesus for shots in the box and big chances over the past three GW’s. During this spell, Vardy has recorded 4 shots in the box per game (vs 1.20 GW 22 onwards) and ∼1.67 big chances per game (vs 0.20 GW 22 onwards). He will now be up against Sheffield United, a team Vardy would dearly love to score against given that he’s a supporter of bitter rivals, Sheffield Wednesday. Getting rid of him might be risky business for FPL managers.

8) Who is the best Chelsea option against Norwich? The problem I face when analyzing Chelsea assets is that there is no “obvious” pick. It happened with Mason Mount earlier in the season, and even now with the likes of Pulisic/Willian/Giroud/Abraham the points are often spread. I wrote last week that despite the fact that Pulisic had better numbers over the season, Willian has now been out-statting him of late. Pulisic and Giroud both are averaging a big chance every two appearances after the restart, but Tammy Abraham despite his poor run of form has been doing well numbers wise recording the highest amount of big chances of all Chelsea players post restart. I think that whichever forward starts will be a good pick, but the problem with Chelsea strikers is that no matter the situation, they often get replaced around the hour mark which hurts their ability to haul big.

9) Eight shots in the box and five big chances for Michail Antonio vs Norwich now takes him top for big chances post restart. An expected minutes per goal involvement of just ∼28 minutes is the best an outfield player has recorded without penalties this season. This speaks volumes of where Norwich stand – it’s almost as if they want to fast forward to next season already. Scary part is Antonio could have had even more had he been more clinical.

10) Wolves’ defence is the gift that keeps on giving. An xGc of ∼0.30 against Everton was in line with their defensive stats – they have only conceded six big chances over the past ten GW’s now, and the fewest of all teams since the restart. There’s every chance of Wolves getting even more clean sheets in the run-in, particularly in the next two GW’s where they face goal shy Burnley and Palace. Wolves looked a different team with the introduction of Daniel Podence in attack which consequently led to Raúl Jiménez finally ending his barren spell. The Mexican has now registered bonus points in 13 out of the 15 games in which he has scored this season. That is incredible consistency which makes him standout relatively his counterparts.

11) A team that are practically on the beach with little to play for are Everton. With a depleted defence and midfield at their disposal, Everton’s numbers have plummeted. Over the past two games, Everton have conceded 10.50 shots in the box per game (vs 5.25 post restart) and 3.50 big chances per game (vs 0.50 post restart). Their creativity since the restart has been shocking to see too – only Norwich have created fewer big chances post restart. That doesn’t bode well for Calvert Lewin’s owners given that the Toffees will now be up against an improved Villa defence fighting for their lives to stay in the division.

12) Watford’s Ismaïla Sarr has registered just one shot over the past five GW’s. His purple patch is well and truly over and so is his status as Watford’s chief goal threat. Watford’s goal threat has been next to negligible for the past few GW’s, but in this GW alone they created more big chances than they had in the previous 4 GW’s combined. Troy Deeney was the main beneficiary with three big chances, the highest a player managed this GW after Antonio, although one could argue he was fortunate because two of them were penalties.

Computations and analysis my own. If you are looking to follow more of my content, follow me at:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/bigmanbakar
Instagram: http://instagram.com/bigmanbakar

Thank you for reading and supporting my work!