Two or three premium players – and time to sell Ings? The burning FPL Gameweek 4 questions

With the international break in play, it is the perfect time to do ‘The Burning Questions’ series where I answer a select few questions from the community.

Q: Two or three premiums will be the big question as Wildcard season begins. Does the old FPL adage still apply: if you’re not capping them, are they worth owning? (from @FPLCanuck)

This is something that is playing on everyone’s mind at the moment. The on-the-fence answer to this question is, ‘there is no right or wrong way to play Fantasy Premier League (FPL)’. But I’ll tell you what I honestly think.

My initial instinct is that two premiums is the way to go for a more balanced team, at the moment. This is because there are enough assets, especially in the £7.5m to £8.0m forward bracket, that are performing very well right now, and I wouldn’t want to compromise on Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) either. His fixtures are really good in the mid-term and he is already the highest big chance and chance creator in the league, not to mention looking very good on the eye test, as well. When fully fit, we all know that he is capable of a 200-point season and I wouldn’t want to make do with a cheaper alternative.

It is very much possible to have an all-round strong team without too many sacrifices if you go ahead with two premium players, ideally one in midfield and one in the forward line. I do agree with the old FPL adage that if you are not captaining them, they might not be worth owning – but I think this applies more in the first half of the season when we are still building team value, and affording three in the second half of the campaign may become easier.

If you are to fill your team up with three premium players, it requires a fair few compromises and you are very reliant on making sure you hit the target with all your value picks. The probability of this is not very high. So while FPL can be played in many ways, I didn’t want to sit on the fence with this question and have given my opinion. But the landscape can change very quickly in FPL and the more data we get, the surer we are. I recently did a very relevant thread on Twitter called ‘Reading the Room’, assessing the FPL ecosystem as things stand. I highly recommend reading it.

Q: It’s been a very bad start for Arsenal, but their fixtures are way better after the international break. Bukayo Saka (£6.3m), Emile Smith-Rowe (£5.4m), Kieran Tierney (£4.9m) all have had price drops; is it too much of a gamble to take a punt on one of them? (From @Karthik_Gooner)

As we can see, the Gunners have really good fixtures right until Gameweek 11. FPL is not about what has happened but rather anticipating what will happen in the future. To add context to the situation at Arsenal, at least half of their first team was missing in the first three Gameweeks, which has definitely impacted their season. They have already played a behind-closed-doors friendly where the main talking point for me was that their first-choice defenders clocked minutes. All the three names that you have mentioned have validity to them as picks and I don’t think it is a bad idea to punt on one of them.

Smith-Rowe has looked really good on the eye to me and, at just £5.4m, I don’t think going there is a bad idea. We saw in the first game against Brentford how far forward Tierney can get and despite the fixtures, he is still amongst the top four chance creators in the league amongst all defenders. The only problem with the left-back is his injury record. That said, not having midweek European football might help his case. All things considered, I wouldn’t have more than one Arsenal player in my team but I do think going with one punt is fine.

Q: With the fixture swing for Aston Villa, should we transfer out Danny Ings (£5.4m), who keeps on delivering points in a poor Villa attack, or is it now the time to move on for sure? (From @FPL_SavatDodo)

I think us Ings owners have been incredibly fortunate in the first three Gameweeks getting the points we have. I did factor in his outstanding conversion rate when transferring him in and to be fair to Aston Villa, two of their first-choice attackers have been missing in the first three Gameweeks.

That said, at his price, there are a lot of options with better fixtures and I think you make the switch to one of them. Ings is not even amongst the top 10 strikers in the league for goal attempts or shots in the box so the underlying numbers don’t support his case, either. I just think you take the points and run given that they face Chelsea, Everton, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur in the next four games.

The likes of Dominic Calvert Lewin (£8.2m), Michail Antonio (£7.9m), Patrick Bamford (£7.9m) and Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) are better options in that price bracket and all four of the above players also have good fixtures in the mid-term.

Q: Pep had plenty to say about Ferran Torres (£7.1m) playing as a striker towards the end of last season, and he’s started there and looked very promising again. Is he now a serious ‘out of position’ prospect? (From @gavinmoger)

Torres is definitely a very serious ‘out of position’ prospect now that Manchester City have not signed a striker. His upside given his price is very, very high and with a team like City, the fixtures don’t matter too much either. That said, what does matter is the fixture congestion and the threat of rotation, especially with Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) and Phil Foden (£7.9m) entering the equation very soon. As long as you are aware of the risks of owning a Manchester City attacker, I think going for a pick like Torres is fully valid because this time around we are getting a very cheap entry into that attack.

If it doesn’t work out, it isn’t like you can’t sell him. And if you do go for him, you just need to assess the risk balance of your FPL team. If you are going for a pick like Torres, you just make sure that you are not taking a lot of gambles in the other positions in your FPL team.

READ MORE:

Q: Is Aymeric Laporte (£5.5m) first choice again? At £5.5m and top for shots in the box for all City players, is he worth investing? (@FplRedbulls)

First of all, thank you for that stat – I was not aware of it and definitely find it amusing! The short answer for me, at this stage, is no. I don’t think he is nailed with John Stones (£5.3m), who had an outstanding 2020/21, sitting on the bench in that squad. If you want to go for a Manchester City option at the back, you spend the extra and go for Ruben Dias (£6.0m), in my opinion, because defence is not where you want to spend future transfers.

There have been a lot of questions with regards to Wildcarding as well. I pre-empted this before Gameweek 3 and have written about it in detail below:

Also, before I finish up, Fantasy Football Scout has been nominated along with our podcast ‘The FPL Wire’ for the Football Content Awards (Best Podcast – Fantasy Football).

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