Spot the Differential
17 December 2021 1755 comments
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******Please not that this feature was written before the postponement of Aston Villa v Burnley on Saturday afternoon******

Gameweek 18 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

KIERAN TIERNEY

  • FPL ownership: 5.2%
  • Price: £4.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: lee | nor | WOL | MCI | tot

At 5.2% ownership, Kieran Tierney (£4.8m) sits just above our usual differential threshold, but with a vastly reduced pool of players to pick from this week, we’ve made an exception.

The 24-year-old has endured a difficult season at the Emirates, having suffered his fair share of injury problems, but now looks to have turned a corner, starting all three of Arsenal’s most recent Premier League outings. During that time, he has produced a whopping 31 points, and ranks joint-fifth amongst all defenders for passes received in the final third.

For Arsenal, it does feel like progress is being made, as they now sit in the Champions League qualification places, having taken 29 points from a possible 42 since Gameweek 4. Notably, they have kept eight clean sheets in those 14 fixtures, a total no team can better and only Manchester City and Liverpool can match.

Up next for Mikel Arteta’s side is a trip to Elland Road, followed by games against Norwich City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, the two worst performing attacks in the division this season. As a result, Tierney has potential for points at both ends of the pitch and could be a smart differential for those on the lookout for a new defender.

JACOB RAMSEY

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Villa under Gerrard and his Gameweek 13 plans 9
  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: BUR | CHE | lee | bre | MUN

In recent weeks, Jacob Ramsey (£4.5m) has established himself as one of Aston Villa’s main attacking threats.

The 20-year-old has started five of Steven Gerrard’s six games in charge, netting against Norwich City on Tuesday, with his performance in the 2-0 win arguably his best of the season to date.

Whether deployed on the left of Villa’s midfield three, or further forward as an inside forward, Ramsey has excelled, producing a respectable six goal attempts, five shots in the box and nine penalty box touches across his last five starts.

“I never watch my stuff back unless someone else has put it on the telly! But listen, he should try and watch as much football as he can and learn off as many people as he can. That is the mentality I want, for him to keep trying to be the best version of himself. The goal was really impressive, a tight one-two and then the power and speed to get into the box and finish on his weaker side. It was a top, top goal. But I don’t want the goal to take away from the fact his overall performance was really top level. I am really excited to keep working with him.” – Steven Gerrard when asked about Ramsey’s admission that he had been inspired by watching clips of him

Under Gerrard, it’s four wins in six for Villa, having beaten Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace, Leicester City and Norwich, with their only losses arriving against the current top two: Manchester City and Liverpool. The Villans now take on Burnley in tomorrow’s Gameweek 18 opener, before appealing away trips to Leeds United and Brentford to follow.

In a short space of time, Ramsey has proven he has the physical and technical ability to thrive in the Premier League, and with minutes now more assured in the absence of Marvelous Nakamba (£4.5m), he looks ready to kick-on.

CHRIS WOOD

Scout Notes 4
  • FPL ownership: 1.4%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: avl | EVE | mun | lee | LEI

With just three goals in 16 Premier League appearances, it’s been a slow start to the season for Chris Wood (£6.7m).

However, the New Zealand international has been a model of consistency since joining Burnley from Leeds United back in August 2017, scoring at least 10 top-flight goals in each of his four Premier League campaigns.

This season, he has posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances and penalty area touches, and while performances have taken a dip in recent weeks, Wood is generally a dependable member of Sean Dyche’s squad who he often turns to in big moments.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 18, Burnley have a testing trip to a much-improved Aston Villa side, though fixtures against Everton (h), Leeds United (a) and Leicester City (h) to follow are all particularly appealing, given that those three sides rank 16th, 18th and 15th respectively for expected goals conceded (xGC) across the opening rounds.

Notably, Wood didn’t score his third goal of the campaign until December last year, but then went on a run, finding the back of the net nine times across his next 20 appearances. Hitting those same heights again is a big ask, but Wood has proven he can deliver consistently over the years, and could be an effective differential for our frontlines in the coming weeks.

https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2021/12/16/covid-watch-club-by-club-latest/

  1. Sam (Team Sam)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would you remove Antonio (for Watkins) if it meant you couldn't afford to get him straight back?

    1. RUUD!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Probably not

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      It’s tricky in the sense that on form why would you want him back!?!

      I’d probably go with what’s in front of you which is a form player actually playing. There’s usually a way to get someone back in even for a hit if you really need it

    3. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yea

  2. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Good piece on afcon if you’re athletic subscriber

    https://twitter.com/Simon_Hughes__/status/1471893197479632905?s=20

  3. jose1
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Best Villa defender? Cash is on 4x YC

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Oh blimey although think will still go for him
      , otherwise konsa at 4.9

    2. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Targett

    3. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Just needs to survive 2 more gw
      With so many on 4YC it’s not a deciding factor for me

    4. Bleh
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I went for Mings

  4. DavidKent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I’ve got 9 players with games this weekend. I’ve got 1ft.

    Should I do Gallagher > Mount? I get an extra player for this weekend, although I otherwise think Gallagher is a top shout.

  5. YEAH PITCH!
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who has done their transfer/s?

    1. RUUD!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      See below lool

    2. Lanley Staurel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      1 of my 2 freebies due to price increase - Antonio to Lacca. Bowen to Raphinha tomorrow is all is good

  6. RUUD!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Vardy to Watkins now or tomorrow at 13:29? It’s a 0.2 swing but is it worth the wait with covid looming? Possibility some of the games may still get called off?

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wait

    2. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Same boat. Going to wait. Imagine if it was cancelled...

    3. :
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Fortune favours the brave.

    4. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm likely going to wait for my move(s) and lose the 0.2 - desperate times!

    5. putana
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      i just did it. 0.2 swing is kinda big. Taking my chances

    6. Assisting the assister
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Done it as would be priced out

  7. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Saka or ESR?

    1. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      ESR but not nailed to start at the moment.

  8. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Best option here folks??!!

    A- Dairy Milk
    Or
    B- Galaxy
    Or
    C- Both -4

    Cheers!!!

    1. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A imo. Galaxy is a bit too sweet and rich.

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers mate!! Currently eating A!!

    2. Zimo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Toblerone for me

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Too dangerous for me that is mate!! Haha

    3. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A feels safe
      B massive differential but could backfire
      C would just choose one

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I’ve gone for A mate!! Safe pick!!

        1. Big_Andy_GAWA
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Depends on mood for me! Like 'em both. Would always buy a plain Galaxy over a plain Dairy Milk, though!

          1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Galaxy definitely the smoother of the two, but Dairy Milk has the va-va-vroom

    4. Vjm6891
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Definitely B. Differential and a lot better

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Both great options mate, currently on A, but it’s going down far too nicely so could have took a -4 to get both by deadline!!! Haha

    5. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A - I like to keep it simple with chocolate.

      Dairy Milk is like Salah. Galaxy is like adding Mané double of couple of seasons back.

      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Nice analysis there mate!!! I agree!!

    6. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Just B. Unless C is to remove Revels

  9. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bowen out for (-4) but for who?
    1.7 mill in the bank.

    A) Mount
    B) Smith Rowe
    C) Saka
    D) Other? (non-city and non-pool)

  10. Bleh
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    10 with no keeper and 0 hits okay?

    Or 11 with a hit (De Gea > Ramsdale)

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Those still with the 1st WC, when are you planning to use it?

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Post fail.

        Now to reply to yours I would just leave DDG if it was for a hit tbh.

        1. Bleh
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Haha cheers!

      2. Bleh
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Wish I still had it. Wouldn’t use it until absolutely necessary though, i.e half my team being out!

    2. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No hit

      1. Bleh
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks!

    3. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If you want Ramsdale long term it’s a good time to do it

      1. Bleh
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I’d prefer DDG long term but Ramsdale isn’t a bad shout either. Haven’t got an Arsenal defender though so thinking that might be the best route in.

        1. Jambot
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I wouldn’t make my keeper worse long term for 1 week on a hit. Although I prefer Ramsdale all things considered.

  11. rdpx
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bernardo out for Mount?

    1. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Nay

    2. Bleh
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No

    3. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No

    4. Zimo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Why?

      1. rdpx
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        BANDWAGON!!! :O]

    5. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No chance

  12. Nespinha
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Fielding 8 ATM, 1FT.
    Pick one or two for a hit

    A) Vardy - - Laca
    B) Gunn - - Ramsdale
    C) Bowen - - Foden
    C) no hit

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A and c

  13. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Those still with the 1st WC, when are you planning to use it?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think tomorrow morning.
      The team I was going to get next week will have more starters this week than the team I have now.

      I currently have 6 + brownhill.

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Ah if you have that few then it certainly makes sense to do that!

        1. how now brown cow
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yep. Vardy and maddison double up has ruined me.

  14. Ruinenlust
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Is Bernardo fit?

    1. RogDog_jimmy
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Apparently so.

  15. Big_Andy_GAWA
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which Villa defender to go for, folks??

    Thanks.

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cash

    2. Drip Doctor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cash

    3. MGMT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cash

    4. Bleh
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Mings

  16. MGMT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What would you guys do?

    A. Allan —> ESR -4
    B. Allan —> Ramsey -4
    C. Guaita —> Ramsdale -4
    D. A/B + C for -8

    I know it seems obvious that ESR is a better pick than ramsey but he would be my 5th midfielder and feels weird having to bench that amount of cash.. Any advise?

  17. Paqueta Rice
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Lukaku & Zaha to Watkins & Foden -4 is my plan. Would you do Sanchez to Martinez for a further -4?

    1. insertcomedyname
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No

    2. Paqueta Rice
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Or Ramsdale

    3. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wouldn’t take that hit

  18. insertcomedyname
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Watkins and Foden in tonight to beat price rises? Or wait until tomorrow on basis more games might be called off?

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wait

    2. MGMT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wait

    3. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I’d wait unless you get priced out.

  19. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone with WC left what is your plan?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      See above. I think I'm going to do it tomorrow morning.

      Was going to do it next week anyway.

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks. Good luck! I might just wait to week 20 in case news of any doubles in 21 which Ben Crellin thinks is possible

        1. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          * Also I have 9 players plus free transfer this weekend

        2. The Count of Monte Cristo
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I'm thinking this as well. A fair few things news-wise could come out in the coming days, so would like to hold it as long as possible.

    2. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      What about you?

  20. 1314
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    worth to do Bernardo > Foden for a hit ? only have 11 playing players and do not want to miss out on the potential haul of City players..

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No

    2. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I’m not sure it’s worth it. I took a hit to Gundo>Foden last week and Foden has to double return just to get me a net 1 point. Probably better to fix something else

  21. Jambot
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Lukaku and Sissoko > Watkins and ESR for -4 to field 11?

    Open to suggestions

    I'm Currently
    Ramsdale
    James Trent Alonso Cancelo Livra*
    Salah Jota Bilva Foden Sissoko*
    Lukaku** Broja* Dennis*

    1FT
    0.5ITB
    4K Rank

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yea

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Great rank. Think those moves would be good here.

    3. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks guys

  22. Champions League Varane
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bernardo won’t even play will he

    1. Hulk Smash
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      They seem to have removed his flag on FPL

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ve’s now rested and Foden played 90 and ready to be rotated

  23. Vinyl78LP
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    My team decimated (10 out).

    Sorry if asked - If free hitting - Is wisest option to pick 3 players from each of the 5 games left which could still leave me with 12 if another game goes?

    Chances are I play it and all of them get culled.

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      10 out?! Wow, that is unfortunate.

      I would FH if that is the case and you're otherwise happy with the team. Yes, I would be strategic about it.

      I would imagine Spurs v Liverpool, despite being last, is likely to go ahead and Liverpool were okay last GW and Spurs have been off for a while?

    2. Pointless
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Crikey. I had seven out and thought that was bad. I’d say FH but don’t do it until half an hour before deadline to get max info and try to favour Saturday’s fixtures in any 50-50 calls. It means you’ll miss out on a potential double or triple GW but it’s kind of as broad as it is long and you might get a nice differential or two.

      1. Vinyl78LP
        • 16 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yep, setting my phone alarm now for 1.15pm tomorrow - cant go with just 5 🙂

  24. Solanke
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Got 9 players:

    Ramsdale
    Trent | James | Cancelo
    Salah | Jota | BSilva | ESR |
    Watkins

    Blanking:
    Antonio | Broja | Livra | Dalot | Gilmour

    1ft, 4.9m itb

    Gilmour > Foden?

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yep, good move IMO.

  25. Hulk Smash
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Is this double transfer for free a no-brainer, assuming I do it as late as possible tomorrow before the deadline? I currently have 10 players, including Bilva (doubt) and Brownhill.

    Antonio > Watkins
    Vardy > Lacazette

    1. Pointless
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Go for it.

  26. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    WC still to play so thinking DDG + Toney --> Ramsdale + Watkins (FT).

    Worth either/also doing B.Silva / Raphinha --> Foden?
    -

    DDG*
    TAA -- Cancelo -- White -- James
    Salah -- Jota -- Raphinha -- B.Silva -- Saka
    Wilson

    Foster* - Dennis* - Toney* -- Livramento [2FT + 2.9m ITB]

    1. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      100%

  27. Horlicks esq.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    At the pub. Not the best time for FPL chat.

    However, Bilva has lost his flag.

    Anyone care to share why/how this has happened? What info do we have.

    Hovering over Foden in for Bilva

    1. Zimo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pep said only Torres is out

    2. NATSTER
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Everyone except Torres is fit. Pep gave his update.

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pep got the COVID OK and said everyone fit (but Torres) and heading to Newcastle

  28. Pointless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Is my bench order OK? Bowen, Ronaldo, Johnson.

  29. Ginola
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Worth doing these transfers tonight for a -4 (otherwise priced out)?

    Gallagher, Antonio > Saka, Laca

    1. fattfattygavgav
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'd maybe just do one of those tomorrow and not take the hit.

  30. fattfattygavgav
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Evening all. 2 free transfers but could do with some help with my limited budget...

    Livra & Mbeumo to

    A. Cash & Martinelli
    B. Targett & Odegard

    Any help much appreciated,
    Thanks

    1. Well you know, Triffic
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Issue is Martinelli and Odegard may not be nailed.

      1. fattfattygavgav
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        My thoughts too. Might just get Targett for Livra and roll the other transfer. This fields 11 but with Bilva as a doubt.