FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookies performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 4: GOALSCORER ODDS
Starting off with the goalscorer odds and Erling Haaland (£11.7m) is top for the match against Crystal Palace. He was benched for Manchester City’s midweek game against Barcelona, which is hopefully good news for this weekend as Pep Guardiola noted in a recent post-match press conference that the Norwegian is not going to start every single match over this congested period. What happens with his game-time in Gameweeks 5 and 6 will be more of a concern, however.
Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) is second in the above graphic with a 53% chance of scoring against Bournemouth, while Gabriel Jesus (£8.2m) has a 46% chance in the eye-catching fixture home to Fulham. The Cottagers have conceded nine big chances from their three games played, the second-highest total in the league.
Harry Kane (£11.4m) and Son Heung-min (£11.9m) haven’t hit the form of last season yet but the fixtures are there to guide them back towards a purple patch, and you feel they’re worth holding unless you’re going into Gameweek 4 without Salah. Opponents Nottingham Forest are bottom of the league for expected goals conceded (xGC) after three games.
Ivan Toney (£7.2m) makes the top 10 this Gameweek and is arguably the pick of the mid-priced strikers at present, armed with an excellent run of games for the foreseeable future.
GAMEWEEK 4: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Liverpool are comfortably top for clean sheet probability, with the bookies suggesting that they have a 62.5% chance of shutting Bournemouth out. Interestingly, however, the Reds have conceded first in their last seven games in a row. The Cherries were without Dominic Solanke (£5.9m) in the last two Gameweeks and he has been a big miss, with Scott Parker’s side never really looking like scoring. If you still own Andrew Robertson (£6.9m), at this point he too may be worth the hold with three home matches in the next four Gameweeks. Switching to Luis Diaz (£8.0m) is not a bad move either: in my eyes, it’s all about keeping the faith in Liverpool and hoping to be repaid over the next four Gameweeks.
There are promising numbers for those of you invested in the top six defences: City are second in the above table with a 52% chance of a shut-out, with Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Chelsea all tied with a 44.5% chance.
Ivan Perisic (£5.5m) rewarded any patient owners with a 12-pointer in Gameweek 3 and you’d imagine he starts again this weekend. Again, it’s worth noting that Gameweek 5 comes just two days after Gameweek 4 ends, while Gameweek 6 falls hot on the heels on the following Saturday. It’s great as there are just two days over the next week without football but with such a packed schedule rotation is inevitable and perhaps Ryan Sessegnon (£4.5m) gets a game in between.
READ MORE: FPL Gameweeks 4-6 rotation risk: How much rest does each team get?
Newcastle have a 29% chance of a clean sheet for the game against Wolves. Kieran Trippier (£5.1m) scored a wonderful free-kick against Manchester City, and has now scored three of his last four attempted direct free-kicks. Certainly one to start if you have him.
Rock bottom this Gameweek are Bournemouth, with a 5.5% chance of a shut-out, followed by Palace and Fulham.
GAMEWEEK 4: MOST-BOUGHT FPL PLAYERS
*figures correct at the time of writing
Rodrigo (£6.4m) is the most-bought asset ahead of Gameweek 4. He’s 10 points clear as the top-scoring player in the game, with five returns from 2.4 expected goal involvements (xGI) – including four goals from 2.0 expected goals (xG). It’s also worth noting that one of those goals was tapped into an open net on the line and was worth 0.9 xG itself. In other words, he’s scored three goals from 1.1 xG in total. It’s massive overperformance and likely unsustainable, though Leeds have good fixtures and he’s not a bad while injuries elsewhere allow him a run up front. Historically he’s never been a good FPL pick, but clearly has Jesse Marsch’s full backing and he’s looking confident.
View Rodrigo’s player profile in the Premium Members Area
Perisic is back up to his £5.5m starting price with well over half a million transfers in, while Trippier is also up £0.1m off the back of his Man City goal. These are the types of defenders we want to target, with significantly more attacking threat than the centre-backs. William Saliba is one you can easily make the case for, however, priced at only £4.6m and playing for a top-of-the-table side who can boast the lowest number of expected goals conceded (xGC).
Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) is one player firmly on the watchlist after a great start to the season, which has been achieved despite Palace’s awful fixtures. He’s on 21 points with three goals in his last two. Zaha is top among all midfielders for xGI (2.7), too, but that figure does however include a penalty.
GAMEWEEK 4: MOST-SOLD FPL PLAYERS
Onto the most transferred out and it’s a real mixed bag here. Kalidou Koulibaly (£5.6m) is unsurprisingly top with over 300,000 sales following his red card suspension. We’ve talked about Alexander-Arnold, Bournemouth and upcoming fixtures, so selling now is a massive gamble and not worth it in my eyes. On top of that, Alexander-Arnold is top among all defenders for expected goal involvement on 1.38 xGI.
Darwin Nunez (£9.0m) serves the second of his three match suspension this Gameweek.
It also looks like the wrong Gameweek to be selling Son, Diaz, Bukayo Saka (£7.9m), Reece James (£6.1m) and Dejan Kulusevski (£8.2m), who have all got great fixtures, so really weigh it up if they’re on the chopping block for you. In fact Son and Diaz are in the top six for predicted points in Gameweek 4 (Saka, James and Kulusevski are also in the top 20), which is everything you need to know. Chase the projections, not last week’s results.
That wraps up this latest edition of The Preview, thanks for reading.
