The Gameweek 32 analysis is wrapped up with Scout Notes on Sunday’s two matches: Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth v West Ham United.
Any numbers and graphics you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.
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Newcastle smashed six goals past Tottenham at St James’ Park on Sunday, scoring a remarkable five times inside the opening 21 minutes.
Interim Spurs boss Cristian Stellini lined his side up in a back four formation for the first time in 15 months, but the plan backfired spectacularly, only reverting to Antonio Conte’s blueprint (3-4-3) once the damage had already been done. By half-time, the Magpies had recorded 2.57 expected goals (xG), their highest in the first half of a match all season.
It felt like an odd decision, given that Pedro Porro (£4.8m) and Ivan Perisic (£5.3m) are both better suited to playing as wing-backs, but nobody could have foreseen the events that were about to unfold. Speaking afterwards, Stellini admitted that the decision to change system was wrong.
“There are no words to explain a performance like this. The first 25 minutes were the worst I have ever seen. I hope that the system we changed to give us energy was the wrong decision. If it was that, it’s my responsibility. We played with four at the back and if this is the mistake, it’s my mistake” – Cristian Stellini
Above: Newcastle’s xG shot map v Spurs on Sunday
Spurs have won only one of their four games since Conte was sacked last month, a fortunate 2-1 victory over Brighton and Hove Albion, with this latest defeat leaving them fifth in the Premier League, six points adrift of fourth. They now host Manchester United on Thursday, potentially without goalkeeper Hugo Lloris (£5.4m), who went off with a muscle problem at half-time.
“It doesn’t sound that good. Around the hip, I felt something. It doesn’t sound good but we will know after a scan.” – Hugo Lloris
Alexander Isak (£6.7m) was Newcastle’s star man, netting a first-half brace. His introduction to life on Tyneside may have been disrupted by injury, but he has since proven his worth, with 10 goals in just 15 appearances. Among players with five or more goals in the Premier League this season, only Erling Haaland (£12.1m) – 70 mins/goal – has scored more regularly than Isak (97 mins/goal).
The Swede is currently keeping Callum Wilson (£6.9m) out of the side, who scored just seconds after coming off the bench on 65 minutes on Sunday, combining with fellow substitute Miguel Almiron (£5.4m). Isak’s FPL owners might have to get used to his minutes being eaten into by Wilson, especially in this hectic period, yet his form combined with upcoming fixtures against relegation-threatened Everton and Southampton is undeniably appealing.
With the match won, breathers were handed to Kieran Trippier (£6.2m) – who created five chances – and Bruno Guimaraes (£5.5m), although Fabian Schar’s (£5.1m) withdrawal was enforced, with the Swiss defender picking up a knock after earning two assists. By that point, Newcastle had lost their clean sheet after Harry Kane’s (£11.6m) consolation, meaning they have now kept just one in their last 11 league outings. For Kane, sales are now set to intensify, with Man Utd and Liverpool up next.
“An assessment [Monday]. I don’t think it’s bad, just a hamstring I felt but we’ll see [Monday] and hopefully it’s not a big problem.” – Fabian Schar
West Ham took a huge step towards Premier League safety on the south coast, with eight different players either scoring or assisting.
Prior to Sunday, the Hammers’ tally of eight away goals – which included two penalties and an own goal – was the second lowest in this season’s top-flight. However, they created 2.34 xG from 18 shots, three of them Opta-defined ‘big chances’.
For Declan Rice (£4.7m), it’s two goals in four days, having struck in the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-final win over Gent on Thursday.
“I’m scoring again, two in a row, back-to-back. There have been a lot of question marks over my scoring ability. A few games to go and hopefully I can keep notching. The benchmark for [staying in the Premier League] standard season is 40 points, so it is important we don’t get too comfortable. We have Liverpool next and we relish those kinds of nights.” – Declan Rice
In truth, this game was all done after 12 minutes, following goals from Michail Antonio (£7.0m) and Lucas Paqueta (£5.9m), both coming from unmarked headers. The latter backed up his goal in midweek with another in Gameweek 32, drawing praise from his manager.
“Paqueta is getting much closer to it. I still think he can do even more but today we played him a bit higher up and closer to Mick [Antonio] and that’s what we bought him to do. He made a difference for us today. He made chances, he made through passes, he put people on the attack and he also got in at the back post and scored a brilliant header from Vladi’s [Coufal] cross, so that was really the Paqueta that we hoped to bring and he would produce for us.” – David Moyes on Lucas Paqueta
Pablo Fornals (£4.9m) completed the rout with a spectacular scorpion kick from Jarrod Bowen’s (£8.0m) cross on 72 minutes. Bowen has now produced returns in each of his last four appearances, scoring once and supplying three assists. However, Sunday was remarkably his first Opta assist on the road all season (he is yet to score), lessening his appeal for Double Gameweek 34, when West Ham travel to in-form Crystal Palace and Manchester City. Their upcoming schedule is arguably the worst of the sides who double in 34, too.
As for Bournemouth, they continue to be a defence to target: this was their seventh defeat by 3+ goals in the Premier League this season. Fantasy interest was largely limited to Dominic Solanke (£5.6m), who hit the post, one of five shots in the box. However, his latest blank continues his poor goalscoring form at the Vitality. He has now scored once from 41 efforts on goal in this season’s Premier League at home, a conversion rate of 2.4%, compared to four goals from 26 shots away from home (15.4%).
This is the start of a vital period for Bournemouth that will go a long way to deciding whether they are playing in the Premier League next season. They play away at bottom of the league Southampton on Thursday followed by a home game against 16th-placed Leeds United on Sunday.
