In Gameweek 34 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), we were treated to two matches that had lots of goals and plenty of fun – apart from if you were a Wolverhampton Wanderers fan.
The nail-biting thriller of Crystal Palace’s 4-3 win over London rivals West Ham United and the 6-0 demolition of Wolves by Brighton & Hove Albion were exciting affairs, and the good news is that data shows a lot more of these types of games are incoming. The fact is, we are now entering a period of high variance.
As the 2022/23 season comes to an end, we will see the return of high-scoring games that buck trends. Shock results will be incoming and it may be partly due to the phenomena of “when teams have nothing to play for”.
This article will explore the data, the potential reasons for this and also how you can use this information to help with your FPL choices.
When Does A Team Have Nothing To Play For?
Before beginning this article, we must define what is meant by “when teams have nothing to play for”. In my research, I have defined this as a period when mathematically teams cannot change their position in a meaningful manner. So for example, a team may be able to get from 15th to 9th, but there would be no reward for European football. They would be playing for a marginal increase in prize money, which isn’t a huge motivator to players, especially if they have met their goal of Premier League survival. This is in contrast to teams late in the season who still have a tangible aim, whether that is to secure survival, clinch a title or qualify for Europe.
To give insight, five seasons’ worth of data was examined going from 2016/2017 onwards. Unfortunately, there is no expected goals (xG) data in the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area for the 2016/17 campaign, so the xG analysis is for four seasons, but this still gives us a good set of numbers to work with.
Adding to this, teams have also been split up into groups as there are some clear differences in performances between certain types of clubs from the top to bottom of the Premier League. These groups are:
- The Title Hunters: The top two teams
- The European Teams: Third to seventh
- Midtable: Teams in eighth to fifteenth
- Relegation battlers: Sixteenth to twentieth
These groups of teams have different levels of quality, motivations and play styles thus it made sense to put them into different classifications.
What The Data Reveals
