Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly FPL Q&A.
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Q: What should we do with our Aston Villa assets now, considering they have a poor away record, and their next two are away, followed by their toughest home games of the season? Worth holding onto Ollie Watkins (£8.5m) and Matty Cash (£5.2m) for their minutes, or ditch for a few weeks?
(via Zimzalabim)
A: This is a very pertinent question as it’ll be hard to find an active team right now without any Villa representation. I currently own Cash, Watkins and Moussa Diaby (£6.8m). After this Spurs game, they travel to Bournemouth, followed by games against Manchester City, Arsenal and Brentford. Then the plum home meeting with Sheffield United in Gameweek 18.
I want to highlight that last bit – Unai Emery’s side has by far the best fixture in Blank Gameweek 18. So if you can afford to rotate Cash with other defenders over the difficult games, I think you should try to keep him.
Meanwhile, Watkins feels like an easier hold. Spurs are quite open defensively and the Bournemouth game looks good on paper. The positive thing about hosting Man City and Arsenal is that Villa have been rampant at home. The December period brings fixture congestion and one thing you know you’re getting with Watkins is consistent minutes. I still think Villa will generate solid expected goals (xG) numbers despite the opponents and he is their talisman, as well as being a possible Gameweek 18 captain.
But I think Diaby can be moved on, with Bryan Mbeumo (£6.9m) being my top target. He has been seeing lots of substitutions around the 60-minute mark and I’m not sure about his security of starts during December.
Q: Does Son Heung-min (£9.7m) need James Maddison (£7.9m) to be fit in order to be captain material?
(via Cruyff’s Eleven)
A: Spurs opted for a very defensive midfield in Maddison’s first game out, with Yves Bissouma (£5.0m), Pape Matar Sarr (£4.6m) and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (£5.2m) all known for their defensive work rate instead of creativity. As Bissouma is suspended for Villa, it should mean a start for either Giovani Lo Celso (£4.8m) or Rodrigo Bentancur (£5.4m) in the number 10 slot. This should boost Son’s service but there is no doubt that losing Maddison will negatively impact their attacking output. He is just too good a player.
Maddison’s absence does hint that Son is more likely to be on penalties and we’re also not seeing him subbed off late anymore. I think he is a perfectly viable captaincy option, even without Maddison. But it does put him a tier lower than Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) and Erling Haaland (£14.0m), in my opinion.
Q: Who is the best Kaoru Mitoma (£6.6m) replacement?
(via The Dom 1)
A: There have been mixed reports on Mitoma this week after the Japanese international missed out on international duty. Andy Naylor – a Brighton and Hove Albion journalist – said he was unlikely to make the weekend’s game against Nottingham Forest but then he was pictured in training yesterday. Hopefully Roberto De Zerbi’s press conference gives us some clarity.
Either way, I think moving Mitoma on makes sense with so many upcoming fixtures for Brighton. The top replacement would obviously be Mbeumo but it’ll lose appeal as we get closer to Blank Gameweek 18.
Despite Newcastle United’s injuries, I still think Anthony Gordon (£5.8m) will miss the odd game with the Champions League also in focus. Cole Palmer (£5.2m) doesn’t have the best entry point against Newcastle this time but there is Brighton and Manchester United afterwards, which look decent.
I think Palmer and Mbeumo are the best bets but, if you fancy a punt, check out Brennan Johnson (£5.8m). He’ll play regularly over the injured Richarlison (£6.7m).
Q: With Liverpool’s defence improving and Virgil van Dijk (£6.1m) back to his usual best, is Haaland a safe captaincy pick ahead of Son or is it just FOMO?
(via ELS365)
A: Liverpool have conceded just five goals over the last six Gameweeks, with three clean sheets, but rank eighth for shots conceded (78) and expected goals conceded (xGC, 8.17). These underlying numbers suggest they’ve been quite lucky and, of course, they have one of the best shot-stoppers in the league in Alisson Becker (£5.6m). So while we can say the defence is improving, it is still giving up plenty of opportunities.
Let’s talk about Son’s captaincy prospects again. Most FPL managers are keen, as we know Son is very good at timing his runs and Villa play a very high defensive line. It is a very regimented backline though – no team has caught opponents offside more often in Europe’s top five leagues. Even if Spurs play a more creative number 10, will they be able to perfect those passes for Son? We don’t know yet.
What we do know is that games between Man City and Liverpool – especially at the Etihad – have been high-scoring. Chelsea showed last week that the most effective way to play the champions is by attacking them and not sitting back, something which Jurgen Klopp has favoured in previous years too. Haaland’s home record is well-publicised and he just feels like more of a known commodity to me.
So I don’t think backing the league’s top scorer, at home, playing for the league’s top-scoring side is just FOMO. It is never a bad play. Son is a great option this week but I would put Haaland ahead of him.
Q: With this being a bit of a nothing Gameweek, where good runs start soon after, should we just not bother too much with this one?
(via Fulchester’s New Centre Forward)
A: A look at the Rate My Team (RMT) projections really puts things in perspective- it doesn’t really look like a great week for FPL returns. Couple that with rotation and the usual lack of sharpness that follows an international break, I do think this is a Gameweek that we ride out rather than attack.
If you have one free transfer and no injury issues in your squad, I think you just ride it out. Having two free transfers for Gameweek 14 could be invaluable, as it precedes an imminent midweek round.
Whereas those with two free transfers should strengthen the bench or remove players that could be a minutes risk. Bringing in more nailed options is the play, even if they don’t have the best fixture this week.
Q: With the flags in different shades flying around, how much emphasis should be put on spreading wealth to the bench?
(via EZE Really?)
A: Usually when we see FPL flags during an international break, they are precautionary and we often see the players available straight after. It doesn’t seem to be the case this time around, with Mitoma and Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) looking like they could possibly miss Gameweek 13. But let’s use this to answer a wider question – how do we set up for the busy festive period? Do we spread the funds around to have a stronger front eight or possess five good defenders?
With the additional stoppage time of this season’s matches, I think we’re more likely to see our attackers subbed on than defenders. Say the likes of Diaby, Gordon or Bukayo Saka (£8.7m) are benched, they will still likely come on for the last 15-20 minutes to make an impact. So I don’t think having a strong eighth attacker beyond Palmer or Cameron Archer (£4.6m) is really necessary.
I wouldn’t necessarily be making transfers to strengthen that eighth attacker unless you’re in the luxury position of burning transfers. That being said, shorter turnarounds do mean that players sometimes have less time to recover from knocks and they might miss the odd game. Having a strong bench is definitely an asset during the busy period.
On the other hand, defenders are a bit trickier. As we saw with Gabriel Magalhaes‘ (£4.8m) latest benching, the Brazilian didn’t come on when Arsenal were comfortable. Players like Tino Livramento (£4.3m) and Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.7m) might still see cameos though and it is difficult to predict when their managers will randomly bench them.
Defenders also offer more flexibility as they can sub on for any position, making five playing defenders a good idea. Centre-backs become more appealing for this period as they will likely start or remain unused.
In summary, the focus still needs to be on the first XI. Once you are satisfied with that, you can start making transfers that strengthen the bench spots, with defence a priority.
Q: If you still had your Wildcard, when would you play it?
(via D. GLYNN)
A: Well done for holding it this long! I would probably activate it in Gameweek 19, right after Man City and Brentford blank. This allows you to dead-end your team into it by selling players from these teams, before instantly Wildcarding them back in. There may even be a Double Gameweek in close proximity.
