Heading into Gameweek 8 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), we hear from FPL Family’s Sam about the dangers of over-managing your team.
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FPL is life. It’s one of those addictive games that you can’t help but become fixated on. It’s such a simple concept that my at the time nine-year-old picked up within seconds of me setting up his account. But it’s so much more than that.
For me, it’s a way of life. It’s something I play with my hubby, son and friends. But it’s also my full-time job. Because of that I am definitely guilty of over-tinkering. It’s hard not to want to constantly make tweaks and changes. However, sometimes leaving it alone and not being tempted to over-tinker with your FPL team is the right thing to do – however hard that might be!
The beginnings of a passion
When I first started playing FPL it was something that I only thought about on a Friday night. I was teaching full-time and planning a wedding. On a Friday evening, I’d get home from school and before I logged off for the night I would set up my Fantasy team. This was in the days before I had a smartphone and mobile data was expensive! It meant that I didn’t always have team news or even the Fantasy website to hand. In those days Lee and I would sit in our living room and we would just chat about FPL and what we were doing with our teams. I was the epitome of a casual player.
But when wedding planning was over I remember asking Lee if we could get a couple of kittens. His answer was absolutely not. But we struck a deal, if I beat him in FPL we could get them. He was confident that wouldn’t happen because for three seasons prior I hadn’t just lost to him but been completely destroyed. That season I bought myself my first FPL notebook, downloaded the app and logged in to FFScout (using Lee’s login, sorry ElFozzie!). To cut a very long story short I won and Harry and Archie joined our family.
Now why am I telling you this? Back when I first started the game my time spent on my team was limited to maybe half-an-hour a week tops. Over the years that has grown. With that growth has got better mini-league finishes as well as hugely improved overall ranks. However, the amount of overthinking has increased too.
Overthinking
Leaving aside my role as a content creator and as the Scout General Manager for a moment I think all Fantasy bosses have the potential to overthink decisions. The level of content that the Premier League alone puts out on the game has grown dramatically over the last few seasons. This means that even the most casual managers or those who are brand new to the game have access to so much knowledge about the best picks.
A few seasons ago I started to streamline what I listened to and read. I did this to cancel out some of the noise. In the FPL community, you will always find someone who agrees with your view. You will also find multiple people who don’t. That knowledge is power, but it can also lead you to overthink and question your decisions. I do it all the time. Liam Delap (£5.6m) is a prime example of that. I spent hours looking at his stats and bigging him up on the Q&A, the Official FPL Pod, the Fantasy Show, Sky Sports News and FPL Family, only to not bring him in myself.
There have been a couple of weeks this season where I have looked at my team and thought I could roll. But then for one reason or another I have made a transfer anyway. This week I am looking at my team and I like it.
Of course, there are things that I think I could change – Valentin Barco (£4.0m), Dean Henderson (£4.5m) and Harry Winks (£4.5m) are at the top of that list. You can read more about those dilemmas here. The thing is that they are not issues that need solving this week. Barco and Winks can both be benched and Henderson might pick up some save points. However, it’s like trying to scratch an itch, especially where Henderson is concerned.
Goalkeeper dilemmas
I often describe goalkeeper transfers as unsexy. This has nothing to do with the players themselves, but everything to do with feeling like I want to make changes with huge potential upside that could be explosive. Goalkeepers have much lower ceilings than their outfield counterparts, simply because their route to points is smaller.
This week I have looked at my 10 outfield players and thought, yes I am very happy to play you this week. That left me with the bench and goalkeeper. The likely right decision here is to hold the transfer to allow me to have two for Gameweek 9. In part this is because I could only afford a £4.7m goalkeeper this week and I am not certain of a clean sheet for any of them priced under that mark. Therefore making a goalkeeper transfer this week could be risky. But because it, alongside Barco, is the weakest point in my team I feel the need to fix it. For 10 days since the Gameweek 7 deadline passed all I have thought about is a ‘keeper transfer.
I have spent hours making goalkeeper comparisons and looking at their underlying numbers. In reality, I have massively overthought a decision that should be very simple. Hold Henderson and deal with him on my Wildcard. Or free up some money with two transfers next week and get a goalkeeper I want for the long term.
Sometimes rolling those transfers is the right thing to do, even if you have itchy fingers and really want to make a transfer. Especially now that we can roll five.
Fear of missing out
This is definitely the cause of my overthinking. I sit next to Lee every Sunday night recording FPL Family and hear about his Brennan Johnson (£6.6m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.5m) picks and I want them too. Then I record the pod with Juls and Kelly and the same happens again. Add that to listening to Az on the Q&A and it’s hard not to have the fear of missing out.
In the early weeks of the season especially there is a temptation to jump from player to player. Worrying that the player you don’t have might outscore the one that you do can at times lead to overthought decisions.
The FPL community is awash with expert articles and content all helping to make the right decision, but don’t be afraid to not have the player that everyone is talking about. I haven’t owned Mbeumo yet this season. I hide behind the sofa every time Brentford play and hope he doesn’t go too big. My only route to him in the last couple of weeks has been to sell Diogo Jota (£7.5m). I have resisted that transfer, even though it has been really difficult because it would have been for a -4. In the end, Jota has returned 16, whilst Mbeumo has 17 so there is only one point in it. That fear of missing out would have led to me being three points worse off had I made the transfer.
Fear of missing out is real. But with the pricing the way it is this season that is going to be the case all year. It’s making for a really exciting season that we can’t own everyone we want and I am having to make peace with that.
Avoid the overthinking trap
Last season I had my worst finish in years. Don’t get me wrong it still wasn’t terrible but it’s not where I aim for. When I reflect on the 2023/24 campaign I know my biggest issue was overthinking. I had a horrible festive period last year which saw me return six red arrows on the bounce. After that everyone I care about beating was ahead of me.
Every week I would produce content with some of the people I love most in the world and find the constant being behind really difficult. I felt myself shifting my approach to FPL. Taking gambles in the hope of clawing back some of the points I had lost. I overthought every decision. The sensible thing is to captain Erling Haaland (£15.4m), I went against it. Double up on the Arsenal defence? I stuck with one for way too long.
This season I am trying to learn from that. I am making educated decisions with an attempt to strengthen my team for a period of time, rather than reacting. Patience is key, that’s how I have always played the game, so this season I am going back to that approach. This week I will have patience with Henderson. Yes he likely won’t keep a clean sheet, but if I hold this week then I can have a better pick next week by freeing up money from the second free transfer I will have banked.
I was really excited when the PL introduced the rolling five transfers rule, now is the time to try and make some use of it.
