Spot the Differential
19 April 2025 618 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us but there’s still time to pick out three more differentials.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester City, Aston Villa and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

We’ve slightly bent the rules this time on Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m), who was owned by under 4% of managers when we earmarked out differentials earlier this week but who has attracted nearly 400,000 transfers in since.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

­­­FPL Gameweek 15 differentials: De Bruyne, Paqueta + Enzo 3

  • FPL ownership: 8.3%
  • Price: £9.3m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: eve + AVL | – | WOL

Given that he’s not in the Scout Picks, it felt remiss not to cover De Bruyne in some capacity this week.

Be it sentimentality or just desperation to tap into the City attack ahead of their Double Gameweek 33, the veteran Belgian is back in vogue.

The third-most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek, he’s more than doubled his ownership in the process.

De Bruyne was sublime in Gameweek 32, securing a 12-point haul in Manchester City’s 5-2 win over Crystal Palace.

He topped both the shot and key pass tables in that match, too:

Speaking after his starring role, the City stalwart said he was pain-free for the first time in a long time.

“It’s been a hard year. You know, having a hernia wasn’t fun but I think now I would say I’m basically pain-free for the last six weeks and that’s a massive difference playing with pain or no pain. It was hard but now I feel free, I’m able to do a lot of training sessions and I feel I can do a good job.” – Kevin De Bruyne

Currently, he’s operating in a roaming ‘false nine’ capacity – possibly to limit the amount of hard yards he has to put in, something he would be doing in a more orthodox central midfield role. The two wingers on either side of him are playing narrower and running beyond him:

There are two schools of thought.

One, that Guardiola is going to get as much out of De Bruyne as he can before the Belgian departs in the summer and give him a fitting, prominent farewell.

Or, the 33-year-old playmaker is just another pawn on Guardiola’s moving chessboard. The slippery City boss could go back to ‘wide wingers’ and an orthodox striker at the drop of a hat and/or merely manage his veteran midfielder’s minutes.

We can’t even guarantee two starts in Gameweek 33 (a start and a substitute appearance would be our best guess) but that may well be the case for most City attackers and indeed a lot of the Villa and Arsenal midfielders.

At least we know that when De Bruyne gets on the grass, he’s capable of the special.

YOURI TIELEMANS

­­­FPL Gameweek 6 differentials: Tavernier, Savinho + Tielemans 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: NEW + mci | – | FUL

The ‘undroppable’ status of Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) has been widely discussed in recent weeks but there is another Aston Villa midfielder who has logged even more minutes than the England international in 2024/25.

Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) is the only Villan to start all 32 league matches for his club, completing 90 minutes on 25 of those occasions.

Unai Emery discussed both players’ durability last weekend.

“Some players are showing us their consistency, playing minutes and recovering. It is not easy to play at the level we demand in matches in a row without being injured.

“Youri and Morgan, they are being very important and consistent. I am always analysing if we can take some minutes to rest them, but until now they are being consistent and playing the demands we need.” – Unai Emery

Minutes aside, Tielemans is not the most glamorous of picks. He’s never managed more than 10 attacking returns in a single season, and is currently on eight for 2024/25.

Two of those have arrived in the last two Gameweeks, at least.

Tielemans’ recent underlying numbers haven’t been bad, either. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s Villa’s leading chance creator (CC, below) and joint-second for shots (Tot, below):

differentials Gameweek 33

With Gameweek 33 opponents Newcastle United and Manchester City possessing two of the higher, more aggressive defensive lines in the division, Tielemans could find ample space in behind for his superb through-balls from central midfield.

differentials Gameweek 33

The Belgian is also on a share of set plays.

RYAN SESSEGNON

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: CHE | sou | avl

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.1m) might be a pick that some FPL managers will want to hold fire on, with the really good stuff – Southampton (a) – not until next weekend. He could enter the Gameweek 34 Free Hit conversation in particular.

If you’re going early on the budget Fantasy defender, Chelsea aren’t exactly formidable foes right now. After nearly losing to Championship-bound Ipswich Town, the Blues fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Enzo Maresca’s side are also winless in their last eight Premier League matches on the road.

differentials Gameweek 33

Above: Chelsea are bottom of the eight-match away form table

The Cottagers even turned over their neighbours at Stamford Bridge in December, winning 2-1.

Why Sessegnon? If you’ve not watched Fulham in the last few weeks, you may have missed the former Tottenham Hotspur defender playing ‘out of position’ on the right wing.

differentials Gameweek 33

After successive returns off the bench in Gameweeks 29 and 30, Sessegnon was rewarded with a start in the last home match against Liverpool and turned in a superb showing, scoring for the third time in five matches.

He unsurprisingly kept his place on Monday at Bournemouth. Don’t be spooked by his early withdrawal: that turned out to be a touchline admin error, something that sent Marco Silva apoplectic.

Those two starts have brought six shots in the box, a Fulham high over that period:

differentials Gameweek 33

Sessegnon has also had more than twice as many penalty area touches (16) as any teammate in the last two Gameweeks.

There’s obvious risk involved with Fulham well stocked with wingers but Sessegnon seems to hold the upper hand for now.



618 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. JBG
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Is it me or are DGWs very meh this season? Considering the players we've had to choose from.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Very disappointing indeed

    2. Yes Ndidi
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Just nothing to get your teeth into.

    3. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      It seems DGW’s have 2 tricky fixtures; eg Villa having Newcastle n city. And when you get 2 decent fixtures in a DGW you seem to have the rotation risk eg Arsenal this week

      1. MADCHESTER UTD
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Making you wonder if the likes of salah and Bowen are better choices than the likes of Eze

      2. JBG
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Exactly, actually going without Salah on FH. Might bring him back in if KDB doesn't start.

    4. EWH2020
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Worst we've maybe ever had. This week terrible DGW fixtures, no certainty around starters, just a complete minefield.

      It's hit and hope. Get lucky or lose.

  2. Yes Ndidi
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    I was just about to come on here to ask who'd be the third Villa of choice, behind Rogers and maybe Martinez
    1. Watkins
    2. Rashford
    3. Tielemans

    Alternatively, which 2 if I don't have Martinez?

    Have been tempted by 3 for a couple of weeks and its amusing to see him get a mention in the article.

    TY

  3. Zenith UK
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    BB time... 2FTs, 1.3M ITB.

    Sels, Areola
    Gvardiol², Munoz², Kerkez, Williams
    Salah, Saka², Bowen, Sarr²
    Mateta², Marmoush²

    Areola, Livra, Barnes, Isak

    Options are;

    A) Kerkez & Williams > Wan-Bissaka & Timber/Kiwior (if A which ARS defender?)
    B) Sels & Williams > Raya & Wan-Bissaka
    C) Other thoughts?

    1. JBG
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A Kiwior

  4. Philosopher's Stones
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Will Areola and Wan Bissaka start for West Ham?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Probably

    2. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Areola yes, AWB has a knock

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        It was v minor

        An injection in a toe and likely fine to play

        1. XX SMICER XX
          • 7 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          True, though is it worth WHU taking the risk?
          Not playing for much are they?

  5. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Howe to Arteta and Bruno to Saka (-4) ?

    1. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I would do those moves

      1. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Thanks. Would you also get Saliba (-8) or play one of Kerkez/ RAN?

    2. Eze Come, Eze Go
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yes agree

  6. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    There must be more to life than waiting around for a team leak on an Easter weekend...

    1. mookie
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      😆

  7. XX SMICER XX
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Struggling to decide 5th defender for BB. Trying to balance GW33 with fixtures for 35-38.

    A. Hold Livramento
    B. Forest
    C. West Ham (double up with Areola)
    D. Brentford
    E. Villa (double up with Konsa)

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      You'd think that both Man City and Newcastle score.

      C is the punt.

      Saints are capable of scoring too.

    2. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      AWB I reckon

      Or Bradley if it's just for one week

  8. Philosopher's Stones
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Also, best defender for BB apart from West Ham, Palace, Arsenal and City?

  9. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Anyone captaining Salah ?

    1. WVA
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Guaranteed to get one return surely, his away record is sensational not to mention against the bottom three!?

    2. Lallana_
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      My heart is telling me Saka as he's playing the best out of the options right now

    3. Captain Mal
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 21 days ago

      It's between him and Marmoush for me, might go for it in the end.

    4. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Cheers all

  10. theodosios
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Dango>Rogers for a hit?

    1. Lallana_
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yes

  11. FantasyClub
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    This worth a BB guys?

    Sels Isak Milenkovic White

    A) Yes
    B) No

    1. Lallana_
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      B

  12. Lallana_
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Good to go? 0.5M ITB, 0FT
    My transfers: Ederson>Raya, Gabriel>Dias (-4)

    Raya
    Dias | Saliba | Gvardiol
    Salah | Saka (v) | Sarr | Asensio
    Mateta | Isak | Marmoush (C)

    Assistant Manager: Glasner
    Bench: Verbruggen, Murphy, Williams, Livramento

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yes

      1. Lallana_
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        cheers

  13. balint84
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Start Konsa or Milenkovic?

    1. Lallana_
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Milenkovic

    2. theodosios
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Milenkovic

  14. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Buy Saka or KDB?
    Its a tricky one I know

    1. JBG
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Both minute risks.. toss a coin, seriously.

    2. Lallana_
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Saka for the long-term

      1. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        He doesnt have a DGW. I will play soon the BB. City have another DGW. Question is will KDB be nailed

  15. XX SMICER XX
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Is Scarles nailed for West Ham at right wing back?
    Thinking he is a decent BB option who I can easily bench in future gameweeks

  16. Doar1986
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    would you BB this
    Martinez, Isak, Burn, Kerkez
    I don't like benching Isak, they have all to play for and Villa usually bad after midweek football
    And at least Martinex has DGW

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I think so.

      Because if you have Arsenal players then it could be tricky around gw35/36 for example.

      If they all look fit to play I think it's the week to do it.

  17. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Gw33 will be the team news meltdown.

    Fabianski starts.

    Watkins over Rashford?

    Pep being Pep.

    Saka starts ...

  18. liboo
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Is kerkez to an Arsenal defender worthy -4 ??!

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Probably

      Depends which one you can afford?

      Timber likely doesn't start and White will.

      But does he play 2?

      Saliba and Kiwior look safer.

  19. JabbaWookiee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    A) TC Saka
    B) Bench Boost with Martinez, Isak, Livramento and Milenkovic
    C) Save chips

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      You need to use a chip in the last definite DGW

      I'd punt on Saka.

      1. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I like it

  20. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Best option here?

    1) keeping Savinho hoping he plays and will have DGW36

    2) getting Rashford with possible DGW36

    3) getting Bowen or Diaz, no DGWs but nice fixtures

    1. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Essentially aiming at someone that can stay in my team until end of season

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      1 is the safe play

      2 is the punt

      He's going to go all out to secure Champions League qualifications but you can't rule Watkins out from starting at home to Newcastle or away at Man City.

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Is 1 really safe? Pep rotates like anything and savinho isn't safe from that.

      2. Atimis
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Probably have to skip Rash

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Do we know for sure city will have dgw36? I'd keep savinho

      1. Atimis
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Guessing game…

  21. ball c
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Is Sarr to Rogers worth -4?

    1. Lallana_
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Not to me

    2. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      No. Sarr DGW plus he could do well vs Bournemouth at home. Villa 2 tricky games

  22. ball c
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Which one:

    A) Sarr to Rogers -4
    B) Isak to Watkins -4

    Thanks

    1. thom830g
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      If one - B

    2. ebb2sparky
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Neither but if forced then A

  23. Obligatory
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Anyone considering Guardiola over Arteta?

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Me. But I have 3x ars and 3x mci. And pep is just more unreliable with rotation.

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      For a YC, yes!

    3. ebb2sparky
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I was considering pep on the basis that I wanted double arsenal defence and saka but in the end I went with arteta and single arsenal defence.

  24. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    GTG ? it's BB
    Raya Areola
    Munoz Konsa Gvardiol Burn Digne
    Saka Salah KDB Sarr Asensio
    Marmosh Mateta Isak

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Can't get kiwior? Feel double ars def is a good way to go this week

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Not enough money 🙁

  25. TSN
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Bench Konsa or Jmurph?
    Konsa has dg
    Cheers

  26. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Do we think we will get leaked lineup from manc tonight?
    If i know kdb will start. I might capt him since he should be on pens too

    1. Conners
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Call it intuition, but I'm 100% certain we'll get a leaked lineup by tonight. 😉

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Did you win your BB tourney?

      1. Conners
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Mine was a horrible fail. Double Forest CS loss in 94th minute...

      2. Letsgo!
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        This week playing!

        1. The Knights Template
          • 12 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          Here we go!

  27. King Kun Ta
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    And the TCarmband goes tooooo…

    A Marmoush
    B Saka
    C KDB

    TA!

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      City in 36

    2. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Saka

  28. Dilzy
    • 16 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    2 free transfers
    A) Murphy -> Rogers + Isak -> Watkins
    B) Savinho -> KDB + Isak -> Wissa

    Bench Boost:
    Raya
    Saliba Gvardiol Munoz
    Saka Murphy Salah Savinho Sarr
    Mateta Marmoush

    Areola Isak Konsa Burn

  29. FCH
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    A - Saka (C), Konsa
    B - Bruyne (C), Kiwior

  30. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Will have a chip in play for each of the next 5 gameweeks.....very good, very nice!