Spot the Differential
19 April 2025 618 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us but there’s still time to pick out three more differentials.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester City, Aston Villa and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

We’ve slightly bent the rules this time on Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m), who was owned by under 4% of managers when we earmarked out differentials earlier this week but who has attracted nearly 400,000 transfers in since.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

­­­FPL Gameweek 15 differentials: De Bruyne, Paqueta + Enzo 3

  • FPL ownership: 8.3%
  • Price: £9.3m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: eve + AVL | – | WOL

Given that he’s not in the Scout Picks, it felt remiss not to cover De Bruyne in some capacity this week.

Be it sentimentality or just desperation to tap into the City attack ahead of their Double Gameweek 33, the veteran Belgian is back in vogue.

The third-most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek, he’s more than doubled his ownership in the process.

De Bruyne was sublime in Gameweek 32, securing a 12-point haul in Manchester City’s 5-2 win over Crystal Palace.

He topped both the shot and key pass tables in that match, too:

Speaking after his starring role, the City stalwart said he was pain-free for the first time in a long time.

“It’s been a hard year. You know, having a hernia wasn’t fun but I think now I would say I’m basically pain-free for the last six weeks and that’s a massive difference playing with pain or no pain. It was hard but now I feel free, I’m able to do a lot of training sessions and I feel I can do a good job.” – Kevin De Bruyne

Currently, he’s operating in a roaming ‘false nine’ capacity – possibly to limit the amount of hard yards he has to put in, something he would be doing in a more orthodox central midfield role. The two wingers on either side of him are playing narrower and running beyond him:

There are two schools of thought.

One, that Guardiola is going to get as much out of De Bruyne as he can before the Belgian departs in the summer and give him a fitting, prominent farewell.

Or, the 33-year-old playmaker is just another pawn on Guardiola’s moving chessboard. The slippery City boss could go back to ‘wide wingers’ and an orthodox striker at the drop of a hat and/or merely manage his veteran midfielder’s minutes.

We can’t even guarantee two starts in Gameweek 33 (a start and a substitute appearance would be our best guess) but that may well be the case for most City attackers and indeed a lot of the Villa and Arsenal midfielders.

At least we know that when De Bruyne gets on the grass, he’s capable of the special.

YOURI TIELEMANS

­­­FPL Gameweek 6 differentials: Tavernier, Savinho + Tielemans 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: NEW + mci | – | FUL

The ‘undroppable’ status of Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) has been widely discussed in recent weeks but there is another Aston Villa midfielder who has logged even more minutes than the England international in 2024/25.

Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) is the only Villan to start all 32 league matches for his club, completing 90 minutes on 25 of those occasions.

Unai Emery discussed both players’ durability last weekend.

“Some players are showing us their consistency, playing minutes and recovering. It is not easy to play at the level we demand in matches in a row without being injured.

“Youri and Morgan, they are being very important and consistent. I am always analysing if we can take some minutes to rest them, but until now they are being consistent and playing the demands we need.” – Unai Emery

Minutes aside, Tielemans is not the most glamorous of picks. He’s never managed more than 10 attacking returns in a single season, and is currently on eight for 2024/25.

Two of those have arrived in the last two Gameweeks, at least.

Tielemans’ recent underlying numbers haven’t been bad, either. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s Villa’s leading chance creator (CC, below) and joint-second for shots (Tot, below):

differentials Gameweek 33

With Gameweek 33 opponents Newcastle United and Manchester City possessing two of the higher, more aggressive defensive lines in the division, Tielemans could find ample space in behind for his superb through-balls from central midfield.

differentials Gameweek 33

The Belgian is also on a share of set plays.

RYAN SESSEGNON

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: CHE | sou | avl

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.1m) might be a pick that some FPL managers will want to hold fire on, with the really good stuff – Southampton (a) – not until next weekend. He could enter the Gameweek 34 Free Hit conversation in particular.

If you’re going early on the budget Fantasy defender, Chelsea aren’t exactly formidable foes right now. After nearly losing to Championship-bound Ipswich Town, the Blues fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Enzo Maresca’s side are also winless in their last eight Premier League matches on the road.

differentials Gameweek 33

Above: Chelsea are bottom of the eight-match away form table

The Cottagers even turned over their neighbours at Stamford Bridge in December, winning 2-1.

Why Sessegnon? If you’ve not watched Fulham in the last few weeks, you may have missed the former Tottenham Hotspur defender playing ‘out of position’ on the right wing.

differentials Gameweek 33

After successive returns off the bench in Gameweeks 29 and 30, Sessegnon was rewarded with a start in the last home match against Liverpool and turned in a superb showing, scoring for the third time in five matches.

He unsurprisingly kept his place on Monday at Bournemouth. Don’t be spooked by his early withdrawal: that turned out to be a touchline admin error, something that sent Marco Silva apoplectic.

Those two starts have brought six shots in the box, a Fulham high over that period:

differentials Gameweek 33

Sessegnon has also had more than twice as many penalty area touches (16) as any teammate in the last two Gameweeks.

There’s obvious risk involved with Fulham well stocked with wingers but Sessegnon seems to hold the upper hand for now.



618 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. niaz1982
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Best BB transfers?

    Murphy > Rashford
    Dunk/Burn > Dias
    Areola > Martinez

    2FT will be FH 34

  2. ignado
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    BB, 1FT left, 3.1 ITB

    Raya-Martinez
    Saliba-Gvardiol-Munoz-Milenkovic-Burn
    Salah-Saka-Sarr-Rogers-Savinho
    Isak-Mateta-Marmoush

    Awaiting early lineup info, assuming Savinho, KDB and Diaz Start

    A. Savinho -> KDB
    B. Savinho -> Mbeumo/Bowen, Burn-> Diaz (-4)
    C. Burn -> Konsa/SGW def

    Thanks.

  3. RogueBlood
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    4ft 0.8ITB BB this week FH next week, currently thinking

    Schar & Murphy> Lewis & Rashford, how does this sound? Risky double city at the back but gives me 12 DGW players

    Raya
    Saliba, Munoz,Gvardiol
    Saka, Rogers, Sarr, Salah
    Marmoush, Mateta, Isak

    Verbruggen, Schar, Murphy, Konsa

  4. AdamJ91
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    FH team; any changes or good to go?

    Raya
    Saliba, Munoz, Konsa
    Salah, Saka, De Bruyne, Bowen, Savinho
    Mateta, Marmoush (c)

  5. Tmel
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    a) Saka & Dias
    b) KDB & Saliba

    (already have Raya, Kiwior, Gvardiol & Marmoush)

    1. Goro Majima
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I'm doing A (given my season you might want to go B).

  6. Brazooka
    • 13 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    People are actually benching Salah? Madness.

    1. Gizzachance
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      BB?

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Good. Brings the EO down

  7. Ojpsan1
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Which get more points?

    A) Kerkez and Burn
    B) AWB and Bradley

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I think A by a mile if you consider beyond this week. Which you should at this stage of the season

  8. Biggsy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    A. Sarr to Rogers and play Burn & Savinho + 1FT

    B. Savinho to Rogers, Burn to Dias and play Sarr

    BB 33 if it matters

  9. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Top points scorer in the DGW this time last season?

    Mateta 29
    Ben White 26
    Odegaard 20

    Same again Jean-Philippe!

  10. TKC07
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Pick 1 FWD and Def each to start.
    FH34, WC35

    A) Isak
    B) JPedro

    1) Schar
    2) Huijsen
    3) Saliba -4 (Already own Kiwior)
    4) Konsa -4 (Dont own any Villa defenders)

  11. The Pep Revolution
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Would salah to KDB be insane?

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Leicester are a tough side to breakdown so I would.... Oh wait, no they suck.

    2. Hey_Arnold
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Not insane but risky. Leicester are terrible.

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yes

    4. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Salah is 2nd most likely to score with the bookies even taking into account the DGW
      KDB is 16th
      https://x.com/robtFPL/status/1913487395606905175?t=WAnWwgicr9qdi9hFWwQmbQ&s=19

  12. Skout
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Livra to Bradley? (can afford but not sure I’d want him sitting on bench past this week)

    Raya
    Gvardiol Munoz Kiwior
    Salah Savinho Sarr Saka Rogers
    Marmoush Mateta

    Areola Isak Konsa Livra
    BB33, FH34, 2.7itb, 1FT

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Live Bradley this week but feel like not ideal to maybe need a transfer on him further down the line, though maybe you just happy to bench

    2. Bleh
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Thinking the same. Tempted as I doubt I’ll play him beyond this week after BB.

    3. Skout
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      That should say can afford VVD*

  13. Hey_Arnold
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Hendo to Raya worth a -4? Already have Munoz and Saliba

  14. ZTF
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Stick with Gordon (avl) or -4 for someone at 7.8m (Rashford? Bowen? Merino?)

    1. Scotty Dog
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Can't see Gordon starting ahead of Barnes or Murphy. I'd prob go Bowen.

  15. Bleh
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Livra to Bradley FT or roll?
    1.4 ITB. BB active.

    RAYA, Areola
    SALIBA, GVARDIOL, MUNOZ, N.Williams, Livra
    SAKA, KDB, ROGERS, Salah, Murphy
    MARMOUSH, MATETA, Isak

  16. Will
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    My big decision is

    A. Sarr (x2) Rogers (x2) Agbadou
    or
    B. Rogers (x2) Murphy Burn

    On BB. Free hitting next week so one week punt. Likely doing A for more doublers and to punish Sarr sellers. Agbadou just for value but likely also facing a youth team this week. Newcastle fan so it hurts!

  17. ZlatanFC
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Play Murphy or Mbeumo?
      Play Ait Nouri or Milenkovic?

    • Steiner
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      First time I’ve asked all season but chasing & being chased now.

      RMT WC Team

      I tried to think about next weeks blanks also

      Raya
      Konaté
      Kiwior
      Gvardiol
      Eze
      Saka
      J. Murphy
      M. Salah
      Rogers
      Isak
      Marmoush

      José Sá
      Wood
      Livramento
      Murillo

    • Lucky Z
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Who is on pens for Man City?

      1. mdm
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Marmoush

        1. g40steve
          • 7 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          KDB with Robot out?

    • tobz102
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      On BB would you Livra - > Diaz for -4?

      1. Goro Majima
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Think I am doing but not overly confident it will pay off.

      2. tobz102
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Dias*

    • Athletic Nasherbo
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      G2g?

      Raya
      Saliba Gvardiol Munoz
      Salah Saka KdB Bowen Rogers
      Marmoush(C) Mateta

      Kelleher Konsa Scarlett Johnson

      1. shredder
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        looks ideal for this week

    • Garfield1001
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Would you rather keep Milenkovic and Livramento on BB (and for rest of season)?

      Thanks

    • myteamissheeeeeeeet
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Thoughts on these changes please with 3 FT as I will be BB.

      Gabriel, Murphy & Savinho to Kiwior, Rashy & Rogers?

      A. Yep
      B. Nah

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        You have 3FT so nothing to lose really.

        1. myteamissheeeeeeeet
          • 15 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          This is true but do we think Savinho will start as I would like to keep him?

    • cilz88
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Got 2 FT, using one. Am I right and thinking if I use my free hit next week my banked transfers won't Carry forward. If I lose the transfers who would you reccomend swapping Burn for? Can afford up to 6.4 million

    • Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Capping Saka, so he’s guaranteed to blank both games now.

    • ameenkw
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I'm thinking of delaying the FH34 .. this means playing one of:

      P)almer (ful)
      M)urphy (avl)

    • TSN
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Bench one:

      1. Konsa
      2. Jmurph

      1. JoeSoap
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Probably 1

    • ShaunGoater123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      If you were trailing in a ML by 40 points and you knew your rival was going to BB would you do so aswell or save for a different week?

      Current team, would need to do 2-3 transfers if BB:

      Martinez
      Saliba / Munoz / gvardiol
      Saka / salah / sarr / asensio
      Isak / marmoush / mateta

      Ederson / Gordon / burn / dorgu

      2fts, 1.2itb

    • Ginola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A. Milenkovic + Murphy > Konsa + Rogers (-4)
      B. Play Milenkovic and Isak

      1. JoeSoap
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        1

      2. Goro Majima
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I'd be inclined to keep Milenkovic looking at the Forest fixtures.

    • JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      On BB - Burn to

      A. VVD
      B. Dias
      C. Konsa
      D. Bradley

      Have Saliba, Gvardiol, Muniz, AWB (have 3 Arsenal)