Spot the Differential
2 May 2025 327 comments
avfc82 avfc82
Share:

Gameweek 35 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is on the way, which allows us to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Leicester City, West Ham United and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

JAMIE VARDY

  • FPL ownership: 4.6%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW35-38 fixtures: SOU | nfo | IPS | bou

Leicester City entertain Southampton on Saturday and we’re backing Jamie Vardy (£5.3m) to enjoy a fruitful afternoon at the King Power Stadium.

It’s the Saints defensive numbers, even under Simon Rusk, that offer real encouragement that the veteran forward can return to form.

Southampton have conceded six goals in three matches since the departure of Ivan Juric. They also rank among the worst three sides for minutes per expected goal conceded (xGC) in that same period, with 45.8.

Although Vardy has failed to register any attacking returns since Leicester’s 2-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur in January, his underlying stats at the King Power Stadium suggest points are on the way.

The 38-year-old, who will bid farewell to the Foxes this summer, has racked up nine shots in the box, including three big chances, in his last four home matches.

That’s despite facing Liverpool, Newcastle United, Manchester United and Brentford.

Above: Jamie Vardy’s shot map in his last four home matches

As you can see, two of those efforts were headers from decent central positions in the the box, a potentially significant factor, with Southampton bottom for headed shots conceded under Rusk.

Vardy has endured a frustrating campaign, tallying just seven goals and four assists, which is why his ownership stands at just 4.6% overall.

But with another favourable match against Ipswich Town to come, which will be Vardy’s final home game for Leicester, he looks to have the platform to flourish as a differential during the run-in, suggesting he might just be worth a roll of the dice.

“Performances like Liverpool and Brighton show the intensity, aggressiveness and willingness to play. The extra motivation is to give the best farewell to Jamie Vardy. He deserves that and the players will show that on Saturday.” – Ruud van Nistelrooy

MOHAMMED KUDUS

­­­FPL Gameweek 14 differentials: Kudus, Gomez + Delap

  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £6.2m
  • GW35-38 fixtures: TOT | mun | NFO | ips

Following an impressive performance at the Amex Stadium last time out, Mohammed Kudus (£6.2m) presents an intriguing differential option.

The Ghanaian found the net against Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday, and over the last three Gameweeks, has racked up more shots than any other West Ham United player (eight).

No other Hammers asset has registered more penalty box touches than his 18, either.

Available at just £6.2m, Kudus looks kindly-priced ahead of a favourable home match-up against Tottenham Hotspur, who will likely rotate with one eye on Thursday’s huge UEFA Europa League semi-final second leg against Bodo/Glimt.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have failed to win seven of their last eight Premier League matches regardless, with the underlying stats in 2025 highlighting their defensive struggles.

Indeed, Spurs have conceded 24.79 xG and 44 big chances since the turn of the year, the most of any top-flight club except relegated trio Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town.

That could play into the hands of Kudus, who is likely to be deployed down West Ham’s left.

Graham Potter’s side also face Manchester United – crucially just three days after the Red Devils own UEFA Europa League semi-final second leg – Nottingham Forest and Ipswich in the final three Gameweeks, all of whom rank among the worst six sides for xG conceded per 90 in 2025.

So Kudus, who is owned by just 2.4% of FPL managers, could be worth a gamble to take advantage of that kind upcoming schedule.

JARRAD BRANTHWAITE

  • FPL ownership: 1.9%
  • Price: £4.8m
  • GW35-38 fixtures: IPS | ful | SOU | new

It’s partly the set-piece threat of Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.8m) that has seen us plump for the Everton man as our final choice.

The centre-back may have failed to score this season, but he has racked up six headed attempts since Boxing Day, a decent tally for a defender, so could finally find the net when the Toffees host Ipswich Town in Gameweek 35.  

That’s because Kieran McKenna’s side have conceded six goals from corners in their last six matches, easily the most in the division:

They are also bottom for set play shots and set play xG conceded over that same period, with 39 and 3.6 respectively, further highlighting their issues.

Given that Ipswich have failed to score in each of their last two matches, Saturday looks to present David Moyes’ side with a decent opportunity to claim a clean sheet, too.

The Toffees also face a favourable home match against Southampton in Gameweek 37, so as a cheap-ish option with plenty of upside, Branthwaite looks to tick quite a few boxes.



327 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    Since a villa double isn’t entirely off the cards, and I have a bench boosting to play next week, which player for my wildcard? (5th mid)

    Rogers - Bournemouth (a) and maybe spurs
    Elanga - Foxes (h)

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Surely a double now is not goimg to happen ?

      1. asquishypotato
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        It’s very unlikely but it’s not been totally ruled out considering the discussions are still ongoing.

        1. Bonus magnet
          • 9 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          please expand, who would they be playing. I still have TC and need to decide soon enough if I paly it this week or wait for the DGW but I am unsure how that DGW is still possible

  2. zensum
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 7 days ago

    If chasing 80 points, should I captain:
    A) KDB (differential)
    B) Mbeumo (play safe)

    Appreciate your help

    1. zensum
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Really need a fast advise 🙂

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Kdb !

    3. rangers9162
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Mbuemo for me.

      • asquishypotato
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Mbuemo, and I don’t think it’s safe, I think its a case of who you think gets the most points

      • IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        KDB

    4. PGR
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Looking for a differential midfielder as I'm chasing a 40 point ML deficit. Who would you get out of:
      A) Asensio
      B) Mitoma
      C) Kudus
      D) Rogers

      Don't want to get Bowen as ML leader already has him.

      1. One Flew Over The Goalies N…
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        D

      2. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        D

    5. WibblesTeam
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Targeting a classic league cup, saved my chips, using WC35 BB36 TC37 FH38

      Pickford Sels
      Gvardiol Ait-Nouri Mykolenko Milenkovic Williams
      Salah Mbeumo Bowen Rogers Semenyo
      Isak Wissa Marmoush

      Thoughts on this ? Any ideas ?

      1. Pep's Money Laundry
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        3 x Forest defence is way too much for a team that can't keep cleansheets.

        Who is TC?
        Make sure he is your team, don't waste a FT getting him later as you might need the FT

        1. WibblesTeam
          • 8 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Have now swapped Williams to Collins so that I can get Wood in GW36.

          No idea on TC, it'll be a tossup between Salah, Mbeumo, Bowen, Wissa, and Watkins too if I get him for GW37

    6. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Have 2 FT and 3.0 ITB remaining. Anything to change here?

      A) Start N.Williams/AWB over Munoz/Konsa
      B) Start Sarr over Savinho/Mateta
      C) Savinho/Sarr —> Mbeumo (FT)
      D) Mateta —> Wissa (FT)
      E) Good to go

      Cheers!

      Raya
      Gvardiol - Munoz - Konsa
      Salah - Bowen - Savinho - Rogers
      Isak - Marmoush - Mateta

      (Verbruggen) (Sarr - N. Williams - AWB) - 2 FT - 3.0 ITB

    7. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Is it better to get Wissa this GW and not have Bowen until 38, or get Bowen now, but means having to lock in Wissa for the 36 FT?

      1. Tommy Template
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Hes at 0% on Jump The Waves predictors, would imagine hes not predicted to on here either. How much weight you put on them is up to you

        1. Tommy Template
          • 11 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Reply fail sorry was about Saka to the below

      2. Udogie-style
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Personally I'm thinking both are needed. If you really can't get both, I think Wissa is better.

    8. Gudjohnsen
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Is Saka going to start?

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        No imo

      2. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        No

      3. Fat Frank
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        I think he will, he’s back now, fully fit and in past seasons if that’s the case he always starts

        1. Merlin the Wraith
          • 9 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Dream on

          1. Fat Frank
            • 8 Years
            7 months, 7 days ago

            He started against Ipswich when nobody expected him to

        2. Tonyawesome69
          • 6 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          League title is over and more important fixture next week

          1. Fat Frank
            • 8 Years
            7 months, 7 days ago

            Exactly, need to keep Saka sharp and build his confidence

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 6 Years
              7 months, 7 days ago

              He just played the full game against PSG. 8 days rest between the two UCL games won't disrupt his match sharpness

              1. x.jim.x
                • 11 Years
                7 months, 7 days ago

                He tried a Panenka against Madrid, I think his confidence is high enough

                1. Fat Frank
                  • 8 Years
                  7 months, 7 days ago

                  But missed lol, needs to build it back up again

      4. x.jim.x
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        If I'm Arteta and I've just seen the way Bournemouth tried to butcher United at the weekend, I'm not even letting Saka leave the house, never mind play.

      5. Under my Cucurella
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        I think he might. Read Arteta's comments regarding the importance of still being strong in the league and recognising there is a job to do still. He also mentioned about having 4 days between the games as though this was a positive thing for being able to focus the team on the game this weekend

      6. WVA
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Probably starts

    9. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Ignored my team for a few days, almost forgot it was a Friday deadline...

      I've got 2FTs, was going to save in preparation for potential future doubles but with those gone I'm not sure... also don't know who to bench this week!

      A) Save
      B) Sell Saka for Mbeumo or something puntier for free
      C) Something else

      2FT
      Raya
      Gvardiol Munoz Trippier
      Salah Savinho Sarr Murphy
      Isak Mateta marmoush

      Areola Saka Saliba Konsa

      Cheers!

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        B

        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Thanks

      2. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        *Murphy is Rogers

    10. Jstap94
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      G2G?

      Ederson,
      Munoz, Gvardiol, Konsa
      Mbeumo (c), Salah, Bowen, Sarr
      Marmoush, Wissa, Isak

      Raya, Murphy, Livramento, Gabriel

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        ye

      2. Hanz0
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Not sure I prefer Sarr to Murphy, mainly due to Brighton conceding a ton of goals as of late. Any reason for preferring Sarr?

    11. Yordan Letchkov
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Yes or no:

      Saka/Dias to Mbeumo/Van Bergen/Pep for a hit?

    12. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Any chance Foden starts?

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Sure but quite low % amongst City predictors

    13. zdrojo187
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Who to play?

      A) Raya
      B) Pickford

      1) Murphy
      2) Eze

      Currently on B2

      1. Udogie-style
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Pickford

    14. Udogie-style
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Who to bench from Rogers and Mateta?

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Mateta. Gl

    15. ball c
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      If chasing in ML. 50 points
      Would you transfer out Salah and bring in Mbuemo?
      I can then upgrade Eze or Trossard to Bowen or Evanilson to Wissa / Watkins

    16. Tommy Template
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Utter carnage on some of the jump the wave lineup predictions this week. No consensus on several teams. Salah's the only 100% on Liverpool fwiw.

      1. Fat Frank
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Isn’t Chiesa expected to start at some point so he can get a medal?

        1. JIMMY TUGGINS
          • 6 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Doesn't have to start RW.

          1. x.jim.x
            • 11 Years
            7 months, 7 days ago

            Doesn't have to start at all

          2. Fat Frank
            • 8 Years
            7 months, 7 days ago

            Yeah but worried about reduced minutes for Salah

        2. Tommy Template
          • 11 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          I think he only needs appearances rather than starts

        3. Tonyawesome69
          • 6 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Already has 4 out the required 5 apps to receive a medal

          1. AC/DC AFC
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 months, 7 days ago

            Also Liverpool can dish out up to 40 medals around the club as it likes.

      2. Bonus magnet
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        please send the link

        1. Tommy Template
          • 11 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          its within this - https://bsky.app/profile/emma1.bsky.social/post/3lo73vavwkc2i

          I think they tend to post to Blue Sky before the other one.

          1. Bonus magnet
            • 9 Years
            7 months, 7 days ago

            cheers

    17. Fat Frank
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Got such a good feeling about Bruno this week.

      I can almost see the scenes about it since everyone will be on Mbeumo and in that game it is Bruno hauling

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        He's getting rested mate

        1. Fat Frank
          • 8 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Again? Was rested other week, damn I hate owning players who do well in Europe and get nothing to show for it 🙁

      2. Merlin the Wraith
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        From what you've said so far both your teams are shot this week.

    18. Bobkat
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Bench 2 of-
      A)Konsa
      B)Ruben
      C)Munoz
      D)Saliba

    19. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Sell Saka to Trossard, or roll?

      Can easily bench him.

      Have Mbeumo, Salah, Sarr, Murphy

      Isak, Mateta, Marmoush

    20. ididnt
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Start one:

      A. Konsa
      B. Munoz
      C. Livra

      1. Orion
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Munoz

    21. cutch
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Mateta to Wissa worth a -4 hit?

      1. WVA
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        No

    22. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      A Saka to mbeumo and play Matera 343

      B mateta to vardy and play Sarr bench saka 352

      C mateta to vardy and play Sarr bench saka

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        A is Mateta of course

      2. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        B should be wissa FFS

      3. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Forget this post....

      4. Orion
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        A

    23. AlpoShearer
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Play?
      A. Sarr
      B. Rogers

      1. Orion
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        B

    24. ididnt
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Bench Mateta or Sarr

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Sarr

    25. corderz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      2FT's + £2.3m

      Raya Verbruggen
      Saliba Gvardiol Munoz Milenkovic Livramento
      Salah Saka Sarr Rogers Murphy
      Isak Mateta Marmoush

      A) Saka > Mbeuno
      B) Saka + Sarr > Mbeuno + KDB
      C) Sarr + Mateta > Mbeuno + Wissa

    26. Solly The Seagull
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Play one?

      A) Bruno
      B) Semenyo

    27. WVA
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Salah a differential captain this week, delicious!

    28. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Saka & Asensio >
      Bowen & Mbeumo
      For -4
      YAAAAAY
      No

      1. Pep's Money Laundry
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Yes

      2. Bobkat
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        I’ve done Saka to Mbeumo, also wondering if I should do Asensio to Bowen for a hit or just play Asensio or Sarr

        1. OptimusBlack
          • 12 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          I would do it it risky for Asensio and sarr to play 90

    29. ididnt
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Mateta to Isak worth -4? Worried about his EO in my league

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        I don’t think so but some seem to and are thinking of captaining him

    30. jimmyharte
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      I'm not being boring for last couple of weeks I'm doing isak to wissa.

      Should I go saka to KDB or Bruno????

      Cheers

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 7 days ago

        Kdb. United will focus on Europa

        1. jimmyharte
          • 7 Years
          7 months, 7 days ago

          Their basically through tho and the final not till end of season

    31. Bad Kompany
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 7 days ago

      Is Dorgu likely to start next gw? Planning to bb next gw so if not might get in an Everton defender for him for this gw and next