Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on centre-backs v wing-backs, when to buy Alexander Isak (£10.5m), Arsenal assets and differential midfielders.
You can read his Gameweek 6 team reveal, chip strategy thoughts and a Wildcard draft in this article here.
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Q: Is Viktor Gyokeres really justified as being part of the template Wildcard team?
Q. Are we overestimating Arsenal’s fixtures in an offensive sense? Barring West Ham United in Gameweek 7, I’m not feeling any fixture till Gameweek 14 (Burnley and Sunderland both away and they have defended very well). Add the huge squad depth, European commitments and lack of open-play threat, are any of their attackers must-haves?
(via Hairy Potter and Merlin Magic)
A: Let’s use this question to talk about the Arsenal attack – how many should we get, and who should we get.
Arsenal currently sit sixth for non-penalty xG (6.61), which is about 1.3 xG per game. That’s not great. They have had some difficult fixtures, though, and Mikel Arteta set up quite defensively against Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United, which he is unlikely to do in the games after Newcastle United from Gameweek 7 onwards. Their list of opponents from that point reads West Ham United, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Burnley. Due to the small sample size, the data is significantly distorted due to the opponents a team has played over this short period.
Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) has featured for 396 minutes so far and has racked up a non-penalty xG of 1.34, with seven shots in the box. That isn’t great but he has been very isolated in some of these tougher fixtures and if his record in Portugal is anything to go by, he does seem like a bit of a flat-track bully who will thrive in these ‘easier’ games.
I think he is very much justified in being part of the Wildcard template. Is he a ‘must-have’? That’s up for debate, but there are limited options right now with Alexander Isak (£10.5m) not a regular starter and Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) out of form.
I think Bukayo Saka (£9.8m) coming into the team will help Gyokeres, as well. The England international is one of the most creative players in the league and will provide much better service to the Swede.
I think going with one Arsenal attacker at least makes sense, with their defensive picks looking more appealing. However, I like the idea of having Saka alongside Gyokeres as it sets the team up better for the future. Having, say, Saka and Bruno Fernandes (£9.0m) in midfield makes it easier to get Mohamed Salah (£14.5m) or Cole Palmer (£10.4m) back in two moves.
Q: Are centre-backs the new wing-backs this season and should I sell Marc Cucurella?
(via Rex Adam)
A: I know FPL introduced DefCon points in order to make some picks more viable, the likes of Moises Caicedo (£5.6m) etc. However, in defence, I think they have actually narrowed the player pool rather than make it bigger.
Players such as James Tarkowski (£5.5m), Marcos Senesi (£4.8m) and Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) have shown themselves to be DefCon monsters and, out of a 10-game sample size, you fancy them getting DefCon points in at least 70% of them. So, they effectively have a 14-point head start on the wing-backs, who would need to get about five assists to match them; that’s an assist every other game.
If bookies were to offer odds on which outcome is more likely – Senesi racking up seven DefCons across 10 games or a full-back notching five assists – I am pretty sure the first one would be significantly more likely.
So yes, centre-backs are the players we have to target this season. I think Marc Cucurella (£6.2m) will struggle to justify his price and, long-term, is not a great pick.
Q: Are Liverpool the new Manchester City? Lots of goals but no guarantee of source and rotation risk galore?
(via kysersosa)
A: We should remember what he have seen is only a five-game sample size and I think when Isak is up to full fitness, Liverpool do have a clear first choice front four of Florian Wirtz (£8.2m), Cody Gakpo (£7.7m), Isak and Salah.
Arne Slot has already gone on record, saying he plans to rotate more in the UEFA Champions League this season to cope with the fatigue. It could be the case that all four, possibly barring Salah, share minutes.
We need to see the dynamic with the above foursome all actually starting to make that judgment, though. I think Isak’s link-up with Wirtz and Salah will be significantly better than it has been with Hugo Ekitike (£8.7m).
That being said, the dynamics have definitely changed. Erling Haaland’s (£14.3m) goal share percentage seems to have gone up, while Salah’s seems to have reduced with more quality options in Liverpool’s attack.
Q: Who is your preferred differential midfielder: Phil Foden, Enzo Fernandez, Bryan Mbeumo, Bukayo Saka or maybe still Iliman Ndiaye?
(via Atimis)
A: Phil Foden (£8.0m) scored and assisted last night in the Carabao Cup and despite his blank against Arsenal, he has shown glimpses that we might be seeing the Foden of old.
That said, do I feel confident in him as a long-term pick? Not in the least. He’s a very short-term punt, somebody I would be looking to move on after Gameweek 8. If that’s possible in your plans with free transfers in hand, I think he’s my top differential midfielder for the next three Gameweeks.
Bryan Mbeumo (£8.1m) is potentially more long-term but the next two fixtures hold the most appeal. However, I feel that Mbeumo might thrive more so in games where he’s the main counter-attacking weapon. Their next two opponents, Brentford and Sunderland, are likely to bus-park, so I am not so sure how much space Mbeumo will get to run.
I like Saka a lot from Gameweek 7 onwards but I am slightly worried about his gametime against the Hammers. He started against Port Vale yesterday, will start against Newcastle on Sunday, then Arsenal play Olympiakos on Wednesday and the Hammers on Saturday. Sunday-Saturday Champions League weeks are usually prime for rotation.
If Saka plays significant minutes against Newcastle and Olympiakos, is it a guarantee that he will start against West Ham? Maybe I’m overthinking it but I think Arteta might be more careful with his minutes to not risk an injury recurrence.
Enzo Fernandez (£6.7m), I just don’t like as an FPL pick.
Iliman Ndiaye (£6.5m) is a very solid, long-term pick with multiple routes to points: DefCon, penalties etc. Everton’s fixtures do turn in a few weeks but with these routes and an affordable price, he is probably the most long-term pick of the aforementioned lot.
That said, I want you to be aware of his stats; they’re not great. He’s had just two shots in the box in five matches, with both of them resulting in goals. So he’s not a volume shooter. These were admittedly very high xG attempts, though, which is what you want from an FPL asset.
Q: When to move for Alexander Isak?
(via Snoopydog)
A: Ekitike’s red card in the League Cup means Isak is likely to start against Palace, but I think it might still be too early to hop on the Swedish international.
Slot has indicated that Isak will feature more regularly after the international break and I think the game against Manchester United in Gameweek 8 is the perfect opportunity to hand him his first start in the league at Anfield. I think he may be more of an option then but you still have to keep their European schedule in mind. They play Aston Villa, Real Madrid and Man City in the space of a week, and we could see rotation there again.
