Spot the Differential
28 November 2025 194 comments
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Brentford, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest assets are on our differentials radar in Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

All three of the players below have an ownership of 5% or lower.


DANGO OUATTARA

FPL Gameweek 2: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus + ‘DefCon’ points

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW13-16 fixtures (leaves for AFCON thereafter): BUR | ars | tot | LEE

Brentford are receiving significant backing for Gameweek 13, which is as much to do with their own home form (four wins from six, 12 goals scored) as it is Burnley’s wretched away record (five losses from six, a league-high 18 goals conceded).

Nine-goal frontman Igor Thiago (£6.5m) picks himself. The backline is also receiving plenty of attention, with Kevin Schade (£7.0m) another popular selection.

But what about Dango Ouattara (£6.0m)? 

For a million less outlay, he boasts a slightly better rate of expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes than Schade:

He also blows his teammate out of the water for big chances per 90 minutes (0.87 vs 0.36):

In fact, despite playing just 724 minutes of Premier League action, Ouattara has actually been afforded more Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (seven) than all but four FPL midfielders:

Level with Schade for FPL returns (five each), Ouattara has delivered a goal and three assists in the last four Gameweeks.

Ouattara’s penalty-winning ability is something to note, too. He has won three Premier League spot-kicks this season; no other player has done so on more than one occasion! Also notable is the fact that Burnley have conceded three penalties in 2025/26, the joint-most of any club in the division…

As for those lower minutes, that’s a legacy from when Keith Andrews switched to a 3-5-2 in the ‘tougher’ fixtures. Dango was often the fall guy when that happened – but Andrews definitely won’t do that in Gameweek 13.

It’s possible that there’s a formation switch for Arsenal away in Gameweek 14 (not a worry for those getting Ouattara on a Gameweek 13 Free Hit!) but would you want to start him then anyway? The 23-year-old’s cheaper price tag makes him easier to bench than Schade, too.

The ex-Bournemouth winger is, of course, bound for the Africa Cup of Nations in mid-December. But as a one-week punt, or to play in three of the next four Gameweeks, there are worse picks out there.


MATHEUS NUNES

  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: LEE | ful | SUN | cry | WHU

Nico O’Reilly (£5.1m) is all the rage at the moment. For good reason, too, given the Manchester City left-back’s recent returns. But what about the man on the opposite flank?

Matheus Nunes (£5.3m) is less of a shotaholic than O’Reilly but the pair have still managed the same number of ‘big chances’ (one).

And while O’Reilly’s overall chance creation numbers are superior, both men have two FPL assists to their name.

They each earned defensive contribution (DefCon) points against Liverpool the Gameweek before last and both have two double-digit FPL points hauls this season.

All in all, then, there may not be as much separating the two City full-backs as it first appears. Indeed, O’Reilly is only currently ahead by six FPL points.

Nunes’ selection here is more team-led. His next two opponents, Leeds and Fulham, have each conceded a disproportionate number of crosses down their left flanks (Nunes’s side) in recent weeks:

Focusing only on Leeds, for those Free Hitting, this graph of where the Whites’ opponents have assisted from in 2025/26 (in green) really pinpoints Nunes’ flank as the source of joy:

There is risk to both full-backs, of course. Rico Lewis (£4.8m) and Abdukodir Khusanov (£5.4m) could come in for a game on the right, with Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7m) or Josko Gvardiol (£5.8m) deputising on the left. That, as you well know, is the chance we take when punting on any City player bar Erling Haaland (£14.9m).


NIKOLA MILENKOVIC

  • FPL ownership: 3.7%
  • Price: £5.2m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: BHA | wol | eve | TOT | ful

Thursday’s 3-0 Europa League win against Malmo saw Nikola Milenkovic (£5.2m) return to goalscoring form.

It was Milenkovic’s first goal of the current campaign but he had earlier come close to breaking his duck when his first-half header forced a save. The Serb was involved in Forest’s opener, too, with his deflected cross falling perfectly for Yates.

We know from last season that the 28-year-old has goalscoring pedigree. He netted five times, while he finished joint-top for headed attempts (21) among defenders. So far this term, he’s headed towards goal seven times already.

Interestingly, Forest have had more attempts from set pieces (20) than anyone except Arsenal in their four Gameweeks with Dyche at the helm:

Milenkovic has also encouragingly claimed DefCon points in back-to-back matches.

Forest won this weekend’s corresponding fixture 7-0 last season and while that may not happen again at the City Ground on Sunday, it begins a decent run of games for the Tricky Trees.

Impressively, Forest have conceded fewer Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (two) than any other Premier League club since Dyche arrived. They have also kept four clean sheets and conceded just five goals across seven matches in all competitions.


UCL Fantasy Matchday 5: Best Attacking Return Player Percentages 2

FPL Scoop London-based freelance journalist and editor, frequently with The i Paper, The Standard, Fantasy Football Scout, and BBC Sport. Follow them on Twitter

194 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    6 days, 11 hours ago

    Schade and watkins
    Or rogers thiago?

    1. SligoRovers1928
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Roger’s thiago

      • Atwood
        • 15 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        The latter

      • Benedict_Alexander_Arnold
        • 1 Year
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        RT

    2. Atwood
      • 15 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      2FT’s and 0.9 spare, any thoughts?

      Was thinking VVD > Munoz/O’Reilly and hold the other FT.

      Dubravka
      Timber - Calafiori - VVD
      Minteh - Mbuemo - Semenyo - Sarr
      Haaland - Mateta - Woltemade

      Pope - Caicedo - Rodon - 3.9

      1. Atwood
        • 15 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        (Playing Pope, not Dubravka)

    3. Totalfootball
      • 8 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      Will you do sarr ---> rogers free transfer ?

      1. Benedict_Alexander_Arnold
        • 1 Year
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        I do not have Sarr, therefore I will not

    4. SpaceCadet
      • 11 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Sarr or Malen?

      1. patricio33
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Sarr

        1. Defcons are for Kinnear
          • 12 Years
          6 days, 10 hours ago

          He is so frustrating. Scores when you don't own him and blanks when you buy him

      2. Benedict_Alexander_Arnold
        • 1 Year
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Neither

        1. SpaceCadet
          • 11 Years
          6 days, 9 hours ago

          Best fifth mid here?

          Salah rogers Doku Schade xxxx
          Haaland Thiago

          1. Baps Hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            6 days, 9 hours ago

            Foden or Gakpo

            1. SpaceCadet
              • 11 Years
              6 days, 9 hours ago

              Already have 3 city. And don’t want to double up on liv attack in their current form

          2. ball c
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            6 days, 9 hours ago

            MGW

            1. SpaceCadet
              • 11 Years
              6 days, 9 hours ago

              Think he starts? Possible cameo from the bench?

    5. patricio33
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Pick one to play in GW13:

      A. Calafiori (Away vs Chelsea)
      B. Chalobah (Home vs Arsenal)

      1. Kay317
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        A

      2. Deulofail
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        A. Better defence, more goal and assist threat. Higher chance of being taken off between 60 and 90 to lock in CS.

        B. At home. Higher chance of getting DC points.

        It’s A for me. Merino too good for Chalobah to handle

    6. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Start one:
      A) Calafiori
      B) VvD

      1. ball c
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 9 hours ago

        B

      2. space mercenary
        • 6 Years
        6 days, 9 hours ago

        A

    7. patricio33
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      I would go with A, given the terrible form Liverpool are in, but it's still a tough call.

    8. Head-to-Head Leagues are LIVE!
      TopMarx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      The Head-to-Head Leagues are finally live!

      Firstly, apologies it has taken so long to get them up and running this season. We certainly hoped they would be up and running sooner but the competition poses unique challenges and it's a credit to Reece and his persistence that we actually have the H2H Leagues at all!

      For those of you taking part, good luck in your leagues and divisions, and for those of you who would like to take part, feel free to join the entry mini-league in readiness for next season's competition.

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/head-to-head-leagues

      For any questions not answered on the main H2H Leagues page, please reply to this post.

      1. Casual Player
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 7 hours ago

        Legit thought this would never come. Can definitely imagine its a hard thing to solve, and then build a functional system to monitor and track the results and ladder

      2. Dubem_FC
        • 10 Years
        6 days, 7 hours ago

        Any prize(s) ?

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          5 days, 5 hours ago

          no, not for these, maybe one day.

      3. Gorblimey
        • 13 Years
        6 days, 3 hours ago

        Thank you for persisting with the H2H ‘project’, i guess it must have been incredibly difficult to code, which makes the effort even more commendable, good luck to everyone entered.

      4. Santigold
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 days, 1 hour ago

        Thanks for making this happen once again! Really appreciate the effort.

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          5 days, 23 hours ago

          Congrats on your great start in League 1!

      5. mookie
        • 12 Years
        5 days, 23 hours ago

        Pretty sure I've finished top 5 in my division(league 7) last season, but I'm still in league 7.

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          5 days, 5 hours ago

          Hi Mookie, what's your FPL ID? I'll investigate

          1. mookie
            • 12 Years
            5 days, 21 mins ago

            22836

      6. YorkieCity
        • 5 Years
        5 days, 19 hours ago

        Awesome, many thanks for the time and effort put in for getting this up and running. It provides another route for giving my team purpose and meaning, and another reason to spend far too long speculating on what other managers are doing - love it.

      7. kringe
        • 11 Years
        5 days, 17 mins ago

        Thanks for the hard work getting Head-to-Head league uo and running.
        Last year I was league 8.27
        (I thought I had finished 4th)
        This time 8.116
        Any way of double checking?

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          3 days, 23 hours ago

          Hi Kringe,

          What's your current FPL ID please?

          1. kringe
            • 11 Years
            3 days, 20 hours ago

            115432

      8. MB10
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        4 days, 20 hours ago

        Also thought I had escaped relegation from L4 last year, but I'm L5 this year.
        Nonetheless a logistical nightmare for you guys to pull all this together so fair play for getting it back up and running, its a great addition to FPL.

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          3 days, 23 hours ago

          Hi MB10,

          What's your current FPL ID please?

          1. MB10
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            3 days, 17 hours ago

            Hi TopMarx,
            It's 1430 - thanks!

      9. GrahamEss
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 days, 15 hours ago

        I too think I'm in the wrong league. I realise this is really difficult but would you mind checking please? I thought I finished top 5 in my division in league 8 last year but now am still in league 8. Fpl Id is 491257. Thank you!

      10. Cruyff's Eleven
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 days, 23 hours ago

        Howcome I'm in the H2H entry league, but apparently not in any division?

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          3 days, 23 hours ago

          Hi Cruyff's Eleven,

          What's your FPL ID and when did you join the entry league?

          1. Cruyff's Eleven
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 days, 23 hours ago

            434864

            I don't remember. Probably too late then, if there was a deadline 🙂

            1. TopMarx
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 12 Years
              3 days, 23 hours ago

              I think you're in League 5 Div 6 this season

              1. Cruyff's Eleven
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                3 days, 16 hours ago

                Legend. Thanks mate.

    9. FplmorelikeFml
      • 1 Year
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      My FPL Wizards! Having a benching headache with this team, would you bench Semenyo out of the lot? Thanks for your help folks!

      Vicario (Dubra)
      VVD, VdV, Guehi (senesi, esteve)
      Bruno F, ndiaye, rice, sarr (semenyo)
      Haaland "TC", thiago, woltemade

      Someone advised benching Ndiaye but i was looking at newcastle's away form and they have been abysmal! Would you recommend the same?

      1. Bggz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        6 days, 8 hours ago

        Yeah or sarr

        1. FplmorelikeFml
          • 1 Year
          6 days, 4 hours ago

          But Newcastle's away form has been bad, would you take that into consideration for Ndiaye?

    10. Totalfootball
      • 8 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Cherki shade doku or rogers ?

      1. Kaneyonero
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Rogers if you already have double city otherwise Doku

    11. Taegugk Warrior
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      On FH, gakpo or schade..?

      1. Tsparkes10
        • 7 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Schade

      2. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 days, 9 hours ago

        Having both

      3. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        6 days, 9 hours ago

        Both

    12. Tsparkes10
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      MGW or Kudus on FH

      1. Royal5
        • 14 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Nah

      2. Amartey Partey
        • 6 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Maybe MGW but it’s risky because he might be injured

    13. rainy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Price changes 29th November

      Rises:
      Rice 7.0
      Thiago 6.6
      Doku 6.6

      Falls:
      Gordon 7.2
      Caicedo 6.0
      Anthony 5.5
      Osula 5.4
      Elliott 5.3
      J.Arias 5.0
      Nichols 3.8
      Delcroix 3.8

      1. JohnnyCroat
        • 10 Years
        6 days, 7 hours ago

        Sweet, 2-0 (FH though).

        1. rainy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 10 Years
          6 days, 3 hours ago

          Emphemeral fantasy riches 😉

    14. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 9 hours ago

      Anyone else going 5 at the back on their FH?

      Martinez,
      Munoz, Matheus N, Milenkovic, O’Reilly, Cash
      Salah, Rogers, Django
      Robot, Thiago

      1. FantasyClub
        • 4 Years
        6 days, 7 hours ago

        Looks good

    15. AAAFootball
        6 days, 9 hours ago

        Rate my FH

        Vicario
        Nunes savona cash
        Salah schade doku Roger's
        Haaland Watkins Thiago

        Dubs minteh ajer esteve

        1. Rosey Palmer
          • 12 Years
          6 days, 8 hours ago

          You know CB Romero is suspended this GW right? Not sure if Vicario is the best choice as far as CS. I like the rest for FH!

      • OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        6 days, 9 hours ago

        On FH Who is third defender to Get budget 5.9 M or less and not From City not O'Reilly
        Martinez (Dubravka)
        Cash Collins xxx ( 3.9 3.8)

        1. BazingtoN
            6 days, 9 hours ago

            VDV

          • SpaceCadet
            • 11 Years
            6 days, 9 hours ago

            Munoz

          • rambo.
            • 7 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            Probably Munoz, or take a punt on Porro

            1. OptimusBlack
              • 12 Years
              6 days, 8 hours ago

              Cheers

        2. OptimusBlack
          • 12 Years
          6 days, 9 hours ago

          On FH Pick 2 players to get and play
          A- Schade
          B- Doku
          C- Rogers

          1. SpaceCadet
            • 11 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            BC

          2. rambo.
            • 7 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            CB

          3. OptimusBlack
            • 12 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            Cheers

        3. Tsparkes10
          • 7 Years
          6 days, 8 hours ago

          A) Doku, Collins
          B) MGW, Oreilly

          1. SpaceCadet
            • 11 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            A

          2. OptimusBlack
            • 12 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            A

        4. SpaceCadet
          • 11 Years
          6 days, 8 hours ago

          Does Malen start against wolves? Could be a great differential.

          1. OptimusBlack
            • 12 Years
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            He is in predicted line up for Aston villa

            1. SpaceCadet
              • 11 Years
              6 days, 8 hours ago

              True. Not nailed to start though.

        5. rambo.
          • 7 Years
          6 days, 8 hours ago

          Which move this week?

          A. VVD to O Reily

          B. Gudmondsson to Pau Torres

          C. Bring in LIvramento for either of those two

        6. Bggz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          6 days, 8 hours ago

          FH Currently on schade but this article has got me thinking about Ouattara instead. Anyone else?

          1. FantasyClub
            • 4 Years
            6 days, 7 hours ago

            Going with both atm

        7. tokara
          • 11 Years
          6 days, 8 hours ago

          I got two FT

          If FH this week. Would i still have two FT next week?

        8. Puuli
            6 days, 8 hours ago

            a)Bowen
            b)Gakpo
            c)Rogers

          • Last orders
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            6 days, 2 hours ago

            On FH- any thoughts appreciated
            Kelleher
            O Reilly Milenkovic Cash
            Salah Foden Gibbs White Rogers Dango
            Thiago Halland

            Bench is rubbish

          • Notorious Z
            • 4 Years
            5 days, 17 hours ago

            best Senesi replacement?

            is o reily the best option or is there danger of a benching in the mid week?

            1. MVDP
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              5 days, 17 hours ago

              You know the answer to that.

              The biggest problem, as I see it, is that Pep rest players by reducing their minutes for a few games, not just one…. With very few exceptions. You might think he’s completely nailed on but then Pep will bite back.

          • kringe
            • 11 Years
            5 days, 24 mins ago

            Thanks for the hard work getting everything organized.
            A huge assignment.
            Last year I was league 8.27 (I thought I had finished 4th)
            This time 8.116

            1. kringe
              • 11 Years
              5 days, 22 mins ago

              Sorry, wrong place

          • Flynny
            • 10 Years
            3 days, 23 hours ago

            Who to start?

            A...thiago at arsenal

            B...burn v spurs

            Thanks

            1. Kane Train
              • 10 Years
              3 days, 20 hours ago

              Thiago

          • Kane Train
            • 10 Years
            3 days, 20 hours ago

            So I currently have 1FT.
            If I use my free hit this week will I have 2FT for next gameweek or just the one

            1. BradBB
              • 3 Years
              3 days, 20 hours ago

              1