Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 4 – The Weak

We’ve already taken a look at the teams with the strongest schedules over the next four to six Gameweeks and weighed up their key Fantasy assets in the middle of last week. Now it’s the flip side of the coin, as we turn to those sides with tough fixtures to follow – we see a couple of London title-chasers have heavy weather on the way, while two of last term’s top five from the North West will also need to batten down the hatches.

Aston Villa

A bright start to the season has seen Paul Lambert’s side thumb their noses at the critics from the comfort of third place in the league. But then, their opening three fixtures were rather kind, with Stoke and Newcastle paving the way for them. The tide is about to turn for the Villains, though, as the next five fixtures scan like a horror movie with the improbable combination of last season’s top five in consecutive Gameweeks.

Villa’s performances so far have garnered two clean sheets for owners of Brad Guzan, Ron Vlaar and star budget performer Alan Hutton but those owners may be looking to quit while they’re ahead as the prospects turn bleak. Andreas Weimann has delivered two goals and an assist for his meagre opening price tag but he’ll be hard pushed to maintain that rate against the approaching horde of Premier League heavyweights.

Once this hurricane has been weathered, though, the skies lighten considerably with a thirteen-Gameweek stretch that contains only Tottenham and Man United in the way of tough opponents, and given how they performed in the first three matches, Fantasy managers may want to invest in Villa’s assets from Gameweek 9 onwards.

Arsenal

A traditionally mixed opening to the season for Arsene Wenger has been marred further by the news that Olivier Giroud faces four months on the sidelines. That could prove beneficial for new signing Danny Welbeck, but the timing could have been better for the Gunners as they prepare to face up to Man City, Tottenham and Chelsea in the next four Gameweeks. Stern tests indeed, which don’t bode well for Fantasy returns.

An Arsenal defence that has failed to keep out either Leicester or Crystal Palace isn’t blinking brightly on many radars and these fixtures merely seal the case against investment in the likes of Callum Chambers, Mathieu Debuchy or Laurent Koscielny. Aaron Ramsey may be the one exception and his legion of current owners may be minded to hold tight, but any new investment looks a little fraught, and while Alexis Sanchez has been rapidly growing into his new team, again the fixtures would suggest that now may not be the time for such an expensive purchase.

The big talking point for Fantasy managers is the ex-United striker Welbeck. With such undoubted potential and the aforementioned boost to his pitch time, 6.9 in the FPL game would seem like an unmissable bargain. But these four fixtures present a dilemma and many will be using them to assess his appeal before taking the plunge. From Gameweek 8, though, Arsenal ease into a prolonged stretch of blue-coloured fixtures on our ticker, and many Gunners’ assets are likely to be hot property.

Chelsea

Jose Mourinho’s side were widely tipped for the title after strengthening well over the summer and they’ve got off to a blistering 100% start to the season. Chelsea have yet to be fully tested, though, a fact that is about to be rectified over the next six Gameweeks in the shape of two trips to Manchester and the visit of Arsenal. The games around those tests (SWA, AVL, cpl) look pleasing enough but there’s enough doubt here to counsel just a little restraint in our Blues investment.

Three goals conceded in the trip to Goodison prompted Mourinho to openly criticise his defence, and indeed, just one clean sheet from three relatively kind opening fixtures isn’t quite the resilience many expected after last season. With these fixtures, some may decide to opt out of their pricey backline until the fixtures clear, or until they show more defensive form (Branislav Ivanovic is arguably a special case). In midfield, Cesc Fabregas has so far overshadowed Eden Hazard and looks to be the better pick but, again, with such fixtures, a case could be made for investing elsewhere for now. Diego Costa on the other hand, with four goals in three appearances, is unlikely to leave any Fantasy teams irrespective of fixtures but some managers may decide that he represents enough commitment to the Blues in light of their upcoming opponents.

BE WARY OF

Man City
A shock defeat at home to Stoke last weekend suggested that ‘The Engineer’ hasn’t yet got the Blues firing on all cylinders. Manuel Pellegrini will need to oil the machinery for the next two league encounters – a trip to Arsenal and the visit of Chelsea. Matches like these have a tendency to be tight (just one goal and no clean sheets from these two fixtures last season) and possibly of limited value to Fantasy managers. After that, though, the fixtures look very nice indeed for quite some time and Fantasy managers may be looking to squeeze two or more City players into their squads. Right now though, Sergio Aguero might not be the best use of 12.1, Yaya Toure has yet to get off the ground and is proving unpopular, whilst injury and rotation threats blight the prospects in defence.

Everton
One might think that scoring three times against Chelsea would be enough for a win but the Toffees conceded six goals and have already shipped 10 in their first three matches. Roberto Martinez will need to tighten that defence if his team are to emerge from trips to Liverpool and Man United (both in the next four) unscathed. Their next two matches – away to West Brom and at home to Palace – look winnable enough, and after the aforementioned blockbusters, they embark on a kind run that may see more investment come their way. Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines may then find themselves in demand, whilst anyone who can successfully navigate the Scylla and Charybdis of Martinez’s midfield rotation whims could be richly rewarded. Meanwhile, we wait to see if Romelu Lukaku can find the form that has earned him his big-hitting status, with the Belgian’s slow start to the season compounded by the form of team-mate Steven Naismith, who, with three strikes in as many matches, remains the most popular budget frontline option around.

West Ham
With just the one win from their first three matches, Sam Allardyce has his work cut out to deliver on the promise of entertaining football and improved results. Unfortunately for him, the next six fixtures are decidedly mixed, for while showdowns with Hull, Burnley and QPR look profitable, the visits of Man City and Liverpool, plus a trip to Old Trafford, are different prospects altogether. Fantasy managers who had eyed the Hammers for part of a defensive rotation pair have yet to see any benefits, though goals for Stewart Downing and Mark Noble have seen them pop onto a few radars. A goal and assist for Mauro Zarate in his first two outings makes him a budget contender but the sound advice is surely to wait for those tough matches to pass before diving in.