Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. OldBenKenobi
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Can’t decide on the below.
    Hopefully pressers will help

    A) Foster + Mee
    or
    B) Heaton + Holebas

    Wildcarding GW4

    1. OPTA FPL
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Definitely A, Heaton you dont even know if he play

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        That’s what I’m currently on 🙂

  2. OPTA FPL
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Teams to be relegated this year

    Cardiff
    Watford
    Hudderfield

    you think?

    1. Santi sensei
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      One of Southampton Bournemouth Newcastle for Watford

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Southampton over Watford

  3. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Why didn't Ben Mee score last season?

    1. GoonerByron
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Unlucky more than anything looking at his stats

    2. OPTA FPL
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      ask Duffy

    3. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Or Duffy?

    4. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      no idea, I had him for all his misses.

      🙁

    5. OldBenKenobi
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Dunno but he’s in my team now

  4. Whats the Huth
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    What a amazing transfer window it’s been for Wigan. Proper excited.
    Top ten in the championship I reckon

  5. Jafooli
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Really like the new Predicted Rank feature.

    Currently projected at top 10k 😎

    1. Markus
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Where's that? On fpl site?

      1. Jafooli
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Nah just something I use on my calculator.

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Should aim for 1k.

    3. Cilly Bonnolly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      The what now?

  6. indiangunner
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Pls RMT without Salah

    Schmeichel

    Cedric-Bellerin-Trippier

    Eriksen-Sane-Mane-Schurrle

    Aubameyang-Arnautovic-Firmino

    Bench: (Speroni, Daniels, Stephens, Wan Bissaka)

    Thank you

  7. Whazza
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    The site loads slowly today or is it my network?

    Anyway, can someone point me to the hot topic about today's presser times?

  8. Benster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Who will score most points in first 4 gameweeks?

    A. Mitrovic - CRY/tot/BUR/bri
    B. Arnie - liv/BOU/ars/WOL
    C. King - CAR/whm/EVE/che
    D. Zaha - ful/LIV/wat/SOU

    1. Ha.
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      D

      1. daitheboot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        C

    2. OPTA FPL
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Arnie Mitrovic

      1. OPTA FPL
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        King

        1. BadgersBoys
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 17 days ago

          Zaha maybe also?

  9. palace ash
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) PVA, Cairney, Zaha
    B) Tomkins, Fraser, Zaha
    C) PVA, Fraser, Benteke

    1. Benster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A = 200% !!

      1. Ha.
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        A

    2. FISSH
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A easy

    3. OPTA FPL
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      C

  10. Santi sensei
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    David Brooks. Ultimate differential

  11. FISSH
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) Auba/Lacazette, Cairney and King

    B) Firmino, Fraser and Zaha

    I like A... but I think most will want B xD

    1. Benster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I like A too

    2. Botman
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A

  12. Emery thing I do
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A - Wan-Bissika & Pickford

    Or

    B - Tomkins & Patricio?

    Is AWB nailed? If so surely A?

  13. In Carrick we trust
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Hows this team look?

    Ederson
    Mendy, shaw, pva
    Salah, richarlison, erikson, jota
    Firmino, aguero, reid

    Bench, hamer, peltier, wan-bissaka, stephens

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Looks sexy.

  14. Limit80
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    % chance TAA starting GW1?

    1. Whazza
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      71,35%

    2. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      60

    3. Firmino
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      85%

  15. whodatgoal
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    De Bruyne and Pogba too risky for GW1? I defo want them both in but would rather not have 18 on the bench GW1...

    1. Teror
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Far too risky.

    2. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Risky. Sánchez and Bilva good placeholders

  16. nutcase
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Firmino, aguero, zaha, Arnautovic, Aubameyang, king, vardy or kane 

    which 3 out of these ones should i pick

    1. Teror
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I've gone with Firmino, Aguero and King. I had Aubamayang before Aguero got that brace against Chelsea. Definitely wouldn't go with Vardy or Kane due to WC and August curse.

  17. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    I just looked at Firmino ownership 36% to Mane only 16% - maybe it is more secure to go with Firmino at the start ?

    1. Whazza
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Sure, get Kane while you're at it 🙂

      1. Son is Rising
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        and Kante!

    2. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      😆

    3. A.T
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      It’s the most boring of tactics though playing like that.

    4. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Make sure your front 3 is Kane Firmino Zaha

  18. Teror
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is Pereira an option? I've read quite good things about him but don't follow Leicester at all so don't know if he's a sure starter.

  19. Trovsmash
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    some help chaps

    A. Townsend Gros Firm

    B. Mane Richarlison Mitrovic

  20. Typo
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Schlupp likely to start and keep his place? He was OOP preseason

  21. Mayor of Flair
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Bottomed.

    Cairney's not on penalties is he?

    1. OPTA FPL
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      yup

  22. mo 10 years on FFS? Join my…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Any decent cash league free to enter or otherwise knocking about?

    1. RUUD!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Wouldn’t be a decent cash league if it was free to enter...

      1. mo 10 years on FFS? Join my…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 17 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Or otherwise........

  23. Aladdin Sané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) Auba, Mane, Townsend
    B) Firmino, Eriksen, Bilva

    1. Ha.
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B

  24. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) Auba & £4.5MID
    B) Laca & Jota

    It's for 4th mid spot.

    1. Whazza
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Got to be B

  25. allaboutthemagic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) shaw mane arnie robbo ederson

    OR

    B) TAA Miki Firmino Mendy De Gea

    1. GAMBIT
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I'd go B if I knew Mkhi was nailed

  26. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Pressers?

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Already done this morning.

      Highlights:
      Firminio benched.
      Jesus starting
      Kane starting
      Salah feels sick
      Mane was on the razz last night and Merseyside police still trying to locate.
      Arnie drove his car into his Grannies pool that he had installed for her last week.
      Jota has hijacked a plane and is currently flying around Finland airspace for some reason.

      Apart from that, everything pretty standard.

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        heh

  27. vopemartin
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    In which order? GW1-4

    a)Zaha + 4m def
    b)Arnie + 4m def
    c)Tosun + 4m def
    d)King + 4.5 def (rotation with Cairney)

    3-5-2

  28. nutcase
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Firmino, aguero, zaha, Arnautovic, Aubameyang, king, vardy or kane 

    which 3 out of these ones should i pick i need help

  29. Marquis-Cha-Cha
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    a. Mahrez / Cairney
    b. B. Silva / Jota

    Starting with Salah and Sanchez.

  30. Miguel Sanchez
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Kepa over Ederson (have Mendy) - seems very likely to start vs Huds?

    1. Whazza
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Think Bulka will get a game personally