Rounding off Saturday’s Scout Notes, we assess Arsenal 0-0 Everton and Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa.
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GABRIEL RETURNS + WHY ODEGAARD AND RICE WERE SUBBED
Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.1m) returned to the Arsenal starting XI on Saturday and carried on where he left off in Gameweek 13.
A clean sheet and maximum bonus helped him to a second straight nine-point haul – discounting the two Gameweeks he’s just missed, of course.
No defender bar bit-part Chelsea stopper Axel Disasi (£4.2m) has a better points-per-match average (4.9) this season.
Above: Gabriel’s bonus points breakdown, which can be viewed in full here
Maximum bonus points won’t come much easier. After a superb block from a fifth-minute Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.1m) shot, he wasn’t required to do much at all. Everton had just one effort after that.
Elsewhere on the team news front, Myles Lewis-Skelly (£4.5m) kept his place at left-back and impressed again.
Martin Odegaard (£8.3m) and Declan Rice (£6.2m) were taken off early, meanwhile. One change was enforced, the other not.
“If Ethan [Nwaneri] comes in and scores a goal, is he a great sub? If he doesn’t, you have taken your captain out. That‘s football.
“[Odegaard’s angry reaction] was the same reaction as Martinelli, anybody. I’m sure that they want to continue to play the 90 minutes. But that’s why we have the subs. To try to help the team.
“[Rice] has been with a little niggle for the last week or so. He has to be subbed in that moment. We have to do it.” – Mikel Arteta on his substitutions
OPEN-PLAY GOAL SHORTAGE
When Odegaard plays well, Arsenal tend to do the same. Odegaard didn’t play well on Saturday, so no surprise that the Gunners struggled to create.
We have to go back to Gameweek 13 for Arsenal’s last league goal from open play. Not creating much outside of set-piece situations has been a bit of a criticism of Arteta’s side in 2024/25, and it’s not without foundation:
Above: Teams sorted by open-play xG per 90 minutes (stats correct before Sunday’s games)
As Arteta pointed out, however, his side did just hit Monaco for three in midweek. Data collection shouldn’t just stop when the Premier League does.
“In the Premier League, yeah. But we scored three from open play three days ago. It won’t continue. We will score goals. If we have the chances like we have done today, I am sure we will score.” – Mikel Arteta
Bukayo Saka (£10.6m) has multiple routes to points, of course, thanks to his role at corners and penalties. He blanked for the third straight match here but, on another day, could easily have emerged with an attacking return to his name.
Emiliano Martinez (£5.0m) deservedly got praise for his ‘worldie’ save on Saturday night but Jordan Pickford‘s (£4.9m) stop from a fierce Saka shot was almost as good.
Arsenal’s ‘starboy’ also really should have claimed an assist for a chance he set up for Odegaard, again smartly stopped by Pickford.
Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m), Kai Havertz (£7.9m) and others continue to labour but Saka remains Arsenal’s brightest spark.
EVERTON ON A CLEAN SHEET ROLL
Arsenal and Everton were first and joint-second respectively for clean sheets last season. On the evidence of the last few weeks, they’re heading for the summit again – providing they can avoid the early-season injuries that weakened their backlines.
Only Liverpool (seven) have kept more shut-outs than these two clubs (six each) in 2024/25. All of Everton’s have arrived in the last nine Gameweeks, with Arsenal the biggest scalp to date. The rest of the Toffees’ clean sheets have been against teams ranked 11th and below.
Sean Dyche’s side will need to be at the top of their game in the coming weeks:
The schedule is likely a deterrent to buy Everton defenders and Pickford anew. But Dyche’s troops will still have a big part to play in upcoming Gameweeks. Does their solidity at the back steer FPL managers away from captaining Cole Palmer (£11.1m) next week, for instance? And could plans to re-acquire Erling Haaland (£14.9m) be put on hold until Gameweek 19?
One thing is for sure, you’re playing your defenders against the Toffees:
One bit of team news from the Everton camp: Dwight McNeil (£5.4m) missed out with a knee niggle.
WATKINS V DURAN
The battle between Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) and Jhon Duran (£5.8m) shows no sign of letting up. Duran got the nod for the second successive league match on Saturday, although the injury that Watkins was carrying going into Gameweek 16 may have been a factor in that.
In Duran, you have the physical presence with more of a natural eye for goal. No Premier League player has a better minutes-per-goal rate (94.2) this season.
The Colombian, yet again, found the net on Saturday.
Watkins tends to be more profligate but Unai Emery loves his channel-running and all-round play – and he did, in fairness, score 19 goals (as well as assist 18 others) last season.
Whatever their strengths and shortcomings, their minutes are now more shared than they’ve ever been:
WATKINS V DURAN: MINUTES IN DECEMBER
| Watkins | Duran | |
| GW13 (Dec 1) | 84 | 24 |
| GW14 (Dec 4) | 65 | 25 |
| GW15 (Dec 7) | 32 | 58 |
| UCL MD6 (Dec 10) | 45 | 45 |
| GW16 (Dec 14) | 16 | 74 |
| Avg | 48.4 | 45.2 |
In the middle of all this, Morgan Rogers (£5.4m) is getting some serious game-time. The now peroxide-blonde midfielder registered his third 90-minute run-out in a week, maintaining his ever-present starter status in the process.
He’s lasted the course in nine of his 16 league starts this season. With Watkins, it’s just three in 14.
Villa have a rare midweek off this week, thanks to no EFL Cup involvement. Gameweeks 17 and 18 are separated by five days, too, in a generous piece of scheduling. Rogers looked to have seen off the biggest threat of rotation for now, then, even if Watkins v Duran will rumble on.
WOOD UNLUCKY, MILENKOVIC NETS AGAIN
It was ‘winner takes fourth’ at the City Ground, with Forest coming out on top.
Chris Wood (£6.6m) was a fraction away from making it 11 goals in 15 starts this season, his second-half strike ruled out for an offside on Anthony Elanga (£5.1m) – by a shoulder width.
Elanga was to bag the winner after Nikola Milenkovic (£4.5m) netted for the second successive week. We’ve highlighted the Serb’s goal threat all season but now there are tangible rewards, those goals lifting him into the top 10 of the FPL defenders’ points table.
Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz (£4.7m) is the only defender to better Milenkovic for xG in 2024/25.
This was a tight, evenly matched game for the most part, with Forest perhaps edging it. Martinez’s aforementioned save-of-the-season candidate and Wood’s offside goal were nearly moments for hosts. Villa should probably have had a penalty, however, when Rogers was tugged back.
Emery went with the same set-up he used in midweek, with Matty Cash (£4.4m) and Lucas Digne (£4.7m) pushed high. If only Ian Maatsen (£4.6m) wasn’t knocking about…
Tyrone Mings (£4.4m) was due to start in Pau Torres‘ (£4.4m) place but fell ill in the warm-up.
Forest meanwhile lost Ryan Yates (£4.9m) and Murillo (£4.6m) in the second half, the pair failing to shake off injuries they’d sustained before the interval.
