FPL
29 October 2025 552 comments
FPL Marc FPL Marc
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Two weekend goals have caused Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m) to be the most-bought Fantasy Premier League (FPL) player in the run-up to Gameweek 10. By Wednesday afternoon, he’s already reached 750,000 purchases.

However, while he’s ahead of costlier Manchester United teammate Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) for points, committing to the Cameroon international isn’t a straightforward decision.

Using basic numbers, deeper stats from our Members Area and some additional context, let’s try to determine which midfielder is best.


RECENT FORM

It’s not just Mbeumo’s brace, but also his Gameweek 8 goal at Anfield, which followed an assist against Sunderland. Whereas Fernandes has only one attacking return over the last four Gameweeks.

During this period, Mbeumo dominates his colleague for both goals and points, while both have created the same number of big chances (two).

[GAMEWEEKS
6 TO 9]
FPL POINTSATTEMPTSSHOTS ON
TARGET
BIG
CHANCES
CHANCES
CREATED
xG (DELTA)xGI (DELTA)
FERNANDES14104291.54 (-1.54)2.17 (-1.17)
MBEUMO3286471.05 (+1.95)1.82 (+2.18)

Fernandes’ shots are more about quantity than quality, as Mbeumo makes up for his fewer efforts by having a high accuracy (85.7%).

Yet here we have a case of overachievement versus underachievement when it comes to expected goals (xG) and expected goal involvement (xGI) tallies.

Despite the worse FPL output from Gameweek 6, Fernandes has still outdone Mbeumo for both. Still, it’s worth remembering that the latter, when at Brentford, had 2024/25’s biggest xG Delta (+7.74), showing a recent history of beating the data.

GOAL THREAT


defensive contributions

FPL Marc Broadcaster, writer and overthinker. Hoping that ‘differential potential’ will catch on.

552 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Babit1967
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Who would you lose first?

    A) Grealish
    B) Kudus

    1. Punned It
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 19 days ago

      I personally don't trust Everton's attack, so A.

    2. Drizzle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      A

    3. Babit1967
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Cheers guys

  2. Punned It
    • 1 Year
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Is Woltemade's hat in the ring for captaincy next week? Got to have some joy v. Westham, surely?

    1. The Big Fella
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      In isolation yes but I won’t because City are at home. Haaland for me. My rank is too bad to be taking risks yet. Need to get the fundamental decisions right and crack into the top 200-500k before then.

    2. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Keeping him on my WC but not captaining, Bournemouth defence not that great statistically. Haaland too good to go against at home

  3. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Which option only for GW 10:

    A) Rice + Mukiele
    B) Kudus + Munoz

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Why not Munoz and rice

    2. Rico123
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      B of those

    3. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Rice Munoz

  4. Amartey Partey
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    When will Palace likely miss a GW?

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      17 apparently

  5. Ask Yourself
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Considering Semenyo has finally started returning to normal form, who would you start this week ? x

    A) Semenyo (mci)
    B) Mukiele (EVE)

    1. The Big Fella
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      City defence isn’t great even at home. I am playing the former

    2. Over Midwicket
      • 14 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Both if possible but otherwise Semenyo. He's amazing vs high lines and "tough fixtures". Look at Liverpool GW1. City conceded vs Swansea for god's sake.

  6. DagheMunegu
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Play

    A Reijnders
    B Larsen

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Easy B

  7. The Big Fella
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Play Senesi or Rodon this week? I think both will concede but the former more likely to get DEFCON and the latter more likely to get an attacking return, but less likely than Senesi getting DEFCON. Basically, higher ceiling.

    1. Jet5605
      • 12 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Good chance Senesi gets 3-4 points

      1. The Big Fella
        • 10 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        How many will Rodon get though? Tough call this!

    2. Drizzle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      50/50, slightly leaning Senesi myself

      1. The Big Fella
        • 10 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        Yeah he is currently in my team but I may change. I think I will play the CS odds.

  8. Jet5605
    • 12 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Grealish > Sarr for free a good move here? Will probs get Mbeumo for Everton at home in GW12.

    Pope
    Gabriel - Timber - Senesi
    Gakpo - Semenyo - Enzo - Grealish
    Haaland - Wolt - Mateta

    Dubrav - Paqueta - Gudmund - Andersen

    1. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Definitely, 100%

  9. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 13 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Free Hit 10

    Pope or Roefs?

    Mbeumo or Bruno?

    442 with triple Arsenal defence or 343 with double Arsenal defence + Rice?

    1. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Own Semenyo but currently not in my Free Hit team. Should I definitely get him?

    2. mookie
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Is your team that bad?
      Decent chance Arsenal, Palace, Leeds and Everton will blank in GW17.

    3. Cold Palms
      • 2 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Hey Bruno and Mbuemo double up! Thank me latef!

  10. Skout
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Got 3 FTs, thinking the below?
    Pedro > Woltemade
    Lacroix > Timber

    Petrovic
    Gabriel Senesi Lacroix
    Saka Semenyo Mbeumo Grealish
    Haaland Pedro Mateta

    Dubravka Rodon King Reinildo, 1.9 itb

    1. Geriatric Unathletic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Pedro - Wolt = Yes. Lacroix/Palace is also a decent pick so not sure about move to Timber.

  11. Geriatric Unathletic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Which pair would you choose...
    A - Sarr & Welbeck
    B - Minteh & Matetta

    Currently thinking Sarr and Welbeck, though Minteh would rotate well with my Anthony.

    Thanks 🙂

    1. mookie
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      The one without Welbeck.

    2. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      B easy

    3. Rico123
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Close, but B for me

  12. Nightcrawler
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Raya is the most annoying pick to get stuck with. The ars defenders have huge ceilings so would ideally like two of them

    Also have gyokeres who I want to sell for eze/saka

  13. Rico123
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Keep changing my mind on 7th attacker choice to get in with my FT. Who would be your favoured pick of

    A. Sarr (have Mateta)
    B. Eze
    C. Saka (would mean losing VdV over Gudmundsson to bring in Timber with my other FT)
    D. Woltemade (343)

    A-C would be for Reijnders, leaving Foster on bench, D would be for Foster and benching Reijnders

    1. Rico123
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Currently on B (Eze) but getting tempted by D

  14. Nightcrawler
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Gyokeres Pedro Grealish Andersen

    To

    Giui Mateta Saka Timber/Gabriel (switch to 4-4-2)

    For free...yes or no?

    1. Offs!de
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Yes

  15. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 11 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Frustratingly 0.1 away from the below

    Grealish, Kudus > Mbeumo, I. Sarr

    Take a hit to also do
    Grealish, Kudus, Pedro > Mbeumo, I. Sarr, Thiago

    1. MJF
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Certainly an upgrade for the hit. Have you already got Mateta, though, because I am not 100% convinced on double Palace attack through all these fixtures in Europe.

      1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
        • 11 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        No Mateta, was going Sarr instead...
        Wrong choice?

  16. MJF
    10 months, 19 days ago

    I am tempted to start King this week ahead of Ndiaye, because Wolves are dreadful.

    1. Haa-lala-land
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Fulham have been low-key dreadful as well, though.
      It would suck if you play King and hes benched again
      I dont know which of them Id start

    2. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Surely start Ndiaye

      1. MJF
        10 months, 19 days ago

        I have double Sunderland defence if Richards is out, should mention.

    3. Rico123
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Start Ndiaye still for me

  17. Atimis
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Which one sounds better?

    1. Pope Saka Enzo 352
    2. Pope Saka Thiago/Welb 343

    3. Pope Eze Bruno 352

    4. Petrovic Saka Wolte 343
    5. Petrovic Saka Gakpo 352

    1. BR510
      10 months, 19 days ago

      not 1 or 5

    2. BR510
      10 months, 19 days ago

      either 3 or 4 tbh

      1. Atimis
        • 10 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        On 3 now but having second thoughts because of Saka FOMO

    3. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 17 days ago

      Is this transfers vs a FH?

      I would say 1 If so. Spurs away is ok for Enzo and next 2 fixtures are WOL and bur.

  18. BR510
    10 months, 19 days ago

    So stuck on this one!
    Pedro for Mateta or Pedro for Kroupi and KDH to Mbeumo ( ALL FREE)

    1. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Does it mean that you play KDH or Kroupi every week? Do you have Bruno?

      1. BR510
        10 months, 19 days ago

        NO bruno - neither would play

    2. Drizzle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Both look good. One costs an extra transfer.

      It depends on how you want to structure your team.

  19. dansmith1985
    • 4 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Would you guys sell Gyokeres in order to get Gabriel? Calafiori and Saka are my other 2 Arsenal

    1. BR510
      10 months, 19 days ago

      YES

    2. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Honestly, if you kept him for so long, one would feel you have to start him vs Burnley...

  20. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 9 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Gakpo > Saka?

    1. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Just for next two imo

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        Wildcarding GW12/13 so would work.

        1. Atimis
          • 10 Years
          10 months, 19 days ago

          Yeah

  21. chudbond007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    How does this look - exact money available?

    Alderete > Gabriel
    Reinders > King

    Just need to get Gabriel in - already got Timber

    1. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Is King a starter? Maybe Miley?

      1. chudbond007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        King doesn't need to be a starter for me - just bench boost fodder really - don't want to lose anyone else in my team and I need £1.0m

        1. Atimis
          • 10 Years
          10 months, 19 days ago

          So could be it

  22. dansmith1985
    • 4 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Mbeumo or Gabriel? Which is more essential? Will be taking a hit to get either in

    1. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Gab ofc

    2. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Gabriel imo...

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 7 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      When did Mbeumo become essential?

  23. GW10 fixtures and clean sheet odds
    G-Whizz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 9 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    GW10 fixture odds can be found here:
    https://prnt.sc/nF3M9piri8KQ
    (Provided by williamhill.com)

    GW9 clean sheet results:
    ARS: 49% ✅
    CHE: 47% ❌
    WOL: 43% ❌
    NEW: 42% ❌
    BOU: 40% ✅
    LEE: 40% ❌
    MCI: 33% ❌
    EVE: 31% ❌
    LIV: 31% ❌
    MNU: 27% ❌
    TOT: 26% ✅
    BUR: 25% ❌
    WHU: 22% ❌
    AST: 18% ✅
    BHA: 18% ❌
    NFO: 18% ❌
    FUL: 17% ❌
    BRE: 14% ❌
    CRY: 14% ❌
    SUN: 13% ❌

    Highest weekly clean sheet % odds success rate this season: 67% (up from 62.5% on the previous GW)

    GW10 clean sheet odds:
    ARS: 57%
    FUL: 42%
    MCI: 40%
    NEW: 39%
    BHA: 38%
    CRY: 34%
    LIV: 34%
    EVE: 33%
    SUN: 33%
    MNU: 31%
    CHE: 26%
    TOT: 24%
    WOL: 22%
    NFO: 21%
    BRE: 20%
    LEE: 20%
    WHU: 17%
    AST: 13%
    BOU: 13%
    BUR: 12%
    (Provided by fantasyfootballpundit.com)

    GW10 clean sheet % from market odds:
    ARS: 52%
    FUL: 40%
    MCI: 35%
    NEW: 37%
    EVE: 34%
    BHA: 33%
    LIV: 32%
    CRY: 31%
    SUN: 31%
    MNU: 28%
    CHE: 24%
    TOT: 23%
    WOL: 22%
    LEE: 19%
    NFO: 19%
    BRE: 18%
    WHU: 16%
    AST: 13%
    BOU: 12%
    BUR: 11%
    (Provided by pinnacle.com)

    Market odds highest weekly clean sheet % success rate this season: 70% (up from 67% on the previous GW)

    Clean sheet totals:
    Arsenal: 6 (+1)
    Newcastle: 5
    Bournemouth: 4 (+1)
    Man City: 4
    Spurs: 4 (+1)
    Sunderland: 4
    Aston Villa: 3 (+1)
    Crystal Palace: 3
    Chelsea: 3
    Everton: 2
    Brentford: 2
    Burnley: 2
    Leeds: 2
    Liverpool: 2
    Fulham: 1
    Man Utd: 1
    West Ham: 1

    *(+1) denotes team kept a clean sheet in GW9

    Hope you all are doing better than me with 3 consecutive red arrows 😆

    Finally made some moves which I hope will help stop the rot, and fingers crossed you all have a decent GW and may your arrows (unlike my recent ones lol) be green 😀

    G

    1. rainy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Cheers G 🙂

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        You're welcome bruv!

        Hope you're keeping well 😀

    2. mookie
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Cheers!

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 19 days ago

        You're welcome Mookie 😀

    3. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 17 days ago

      Thanks, G.

    4. Captain Beefheart
      • 13 Years
      10 months, 17 days ago

      Thanks mate

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 17 days ago

        My pleasure Captain! *salutes*

  24. Toplad
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Im thinking of doing Gakpo > Sarr

    Yes or No ?

    Thanks in advance

    1. Atimis
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      I would be getting Gakpo after the next two games

    2. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      God no, Sarr is shocking to own

  25. New Article
  26. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Bench fooder at 3.9 on wc a) Tuanzebe BUR (but bad fixs) b) achaempong CHE (but rotation risk) thanks

  27. Lost in fantasy
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 19 days ago

    Yes or no?

    Pedro & Reijnders to Wellbeck & Sarr.

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 19 days ago

      Y