FPL
29 October 2025 552 comments
FPL Marc FPL Marc
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Two weekend goals have caused Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m) to be the most-bought Fantasy Premier League (FPL) player in the run-up to Gameweek 10. By Wednesday afternoon, he’s already reached 750,000 purchases.

However, while he’s ahead of costlier Manchester United teammate Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) for points, committing to the Cameroon international isn’t a straightforward decision.

Using basic numbers, deeper stats from our Members Area and some additional context, let’s try to determine which midfielder is best.


RECENT FORM

It’s not just Mbeumo’s brace, but also his Gameweek 8 goal at Anfield, which followed an assist against Sunderland. Whereas Fernandes has only one attacking return over the last four Gameweeks.

During this period, Mbeumo dominates his colleague for both goals and points, while both have created the same number of big chances (two).

[GAMEWEEKS
6 TO 9]
FPL POINTSATTEMPTSSHOTS ON
TARGET
BIG
CHANCES
CHANCES
CREATED
xG (DELTA)xGI (DELTA)
FERNANDES14104291.54 (-1.54)2.17 (-1.17)
MBEUMO3286471.05 (+1.95)1.82 (+2.18)

Fernandes’ shots are more about quantity than quality, as Mbeumo makes up for his fewer efforts by having a high accuracy (85.7%).

Yet here we have a case of overachievement versus underachievement when it comes to expected goals (xG) and expected goal involvement (xGI) tallies.

Despite the worse FPL output from Gameweek 6, Fernandes has still outdone Mbeumo for both. Still, it’s worth remembering that the latter, when at Brentford, had 2024/25’s biggest xG Delta (+7.74), showing a recent history of beating the data.

GOAL THREAT


defensive contributions

FPL Marc Broadcaster, writer and overthinker. Hoping that ‘differential potential’ will catch on.

552 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Babit1967
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 6 days ago

    Who would you lose first?

    A) Grealish
    B) Kudus

    1. Punned It
        1 month, 6 days ago

        I personally don't trust Everton's attack, so A.

      • Drizzle
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        A

      • Babit1967
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Cheers guys

    2. Punned It
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Is Woltemade's hat in the ring for captaincy next week? Got to have some joy v. Westham, surely?

        1. The Big Fella
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          In isolation yes but I won’t because City are at home. Haaland for me. My rank is too bad to be taking risks yet. Need to get the fundamental decisions right and crack into the top 200-500k before then.

        2. Ask Yourself
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Keeping him on my WC but not captaining, Bournemouth defence not that great statistically. Haaland too good to go against at home

      • DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Which option only for GW 10:

        A) Rice + Mukiele
        B) Kudus + Munoz

        1. Ask Yourself
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Why not Munoz and rice

        2. Rico123
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          B of those

        3. Atimis
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Rice Munoz

      • Amartey Partey
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        When will Palace likely miss a GW?

        1. Ask Yourself
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          17 apparently

      • Ask Yourself
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Considering Semenyo has finally started returning to normal form, who would you start this week ? x

        A) Semenyo (mci)
        B) Mukiele (EVE)

        1. The Big Fella
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          City defence isn’t great even at home. I am playing the former

        2. Over Midwicket
          • 13 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Both if possible but otherwise Semenyo. He's amazing vs high lines and "tough fixtures". Look at Liverpool GW1. City conceded vs Swansea for god's sake.

      • DagheMunegu
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Play

        A Reijnders
        B Larsen

        1. Ask Yourself
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Easy B

      • The Big Fella
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Play Senesi or Rodon this week? I think both will concede but the former more likely to get DEFCON and the latter more likely to get an attacking return, but less likely than Senesi getting DEFCON. Basically, higher ceiling.

        1. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Good chance Senesi gets 3-4 points

          1. The Big Fella
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 6 days ago

            How many will Rodon get though? Tough call this!

        2. Drizzle
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          50/50, slightly leaning Senesi myself

          1. The Big Fella
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 6 days ago

            Yeah he is currently in my team but I may change. I think I will play the CS odds.

      • Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Grealish > Sarr for free a good move here? Will probs get Mbeumo for Everton at home in GW12.

        Pope
        Gabriel - Timber - Senesi
        Gakpo - Semenyo - Enzo - Grealish
        Haaland - Wolt - Mateta

        Dubrav - Paqueta - Gudmund - Andersen

        1. Count of Monte Hristo
          • 12 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Definitely, 100%

      • Count of Monte Hristo
        • 12 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Free Hit 10

        Pope or Roefs?

        Mbeumo or Bruno?

        442 with triple Arsenal defence or 343 with double Arsenal defence + Rice?

        1. Count of Monte Hristo
          • 12 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Own Semenyo but currently not in my Free Hit team. Should I definitely get him?

        2. mookie
          • 12 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Is your team that bad?
          Decent chance Arsenal, Palace, Leeds and Everton will blank in GW17.

        3. Cold Palms
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Hey Bruno and Mbuemo double up! Thank me latef!

      • Skout
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Got 3 FTs, thinking the below?
        Pedro > Woltemade
        Lacroix > Timber

        Petrovic
        Gabriel Senesi Lacroix
        Saka Semenyo Mbeumo Grealish
        Haaland Pedro Mateta

        Dubravka Rodon King Reinildo, 1.9 itb

        1. Geriatric Unathletic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Pedro - Wolt = Yes. Lacroix/Palace is also a decent pick so not sure about move to Timber.

      • Geriatric Unathletic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Which pair would you choose...
        A - Sarr & Welbeck
        B - Minteh & Matetta

        Currently thinking Sarr and Welbeck, though Minteh would rotate well with my Anthony.

        Thanks 🙂

        1. mookie
          • 12 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          The one without Welbeck.

        2. Ask Yourself
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          B easy

        3. Rico123
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Close, but B for me

      • Nightcrawler
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Raya is the most annoying pick to get stuck with. The ars defenders have huge ceilings so would ideally like two of them

        Also have gyokeres who I want to sell for eze/saka

      • Rico123
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Keep changing my mind on 7th attacker choice to get in with my FT. Who would be your favoured pick of

        A. Sarr (have Mateta)
        B. Eze
        C. Saka (would mean losing VdV over Gudmundsson to bring in Timber with my other FT)
        D. Woltemade (343)

        A-C would be for Reijnders, leaving Foster on bench, D would be for Foster and benching Reijnders

        1. Rico123
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Currently on B (Eze) but getting tempted by D

      • Nightcrawler
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Gyokeres Pedro Grealish Andersen

        To

        Giui Mateta Saka Timber/Gabriel (switch to 4-4-2)

        For free...yes or no?

        1. Offs!de
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Yes

      • KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Frustratingly 0.1 away from the below

        Grealish, Kudus > Mbeumo, I. Sarr

        Take a hit to also do
        Grealish, Kudus, Pedro > Mbeumo, I. Sarr, Thiago

        1. White Pony
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Certainly an upgrade for the hit. Have you already got Mateta, though, because I am not 100% convinced on double Palace attack through all these fixtures in Europe.

          1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 6 days ago

            No Mateta, was going Sarr instead...
            Wrong choice?

      • White Pony
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        I am tempted to start King this week ahead of Ndiaye, because Wolves are dreadful.

        1. Haa-lala-land
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Fulham have been low-key dreadful as well, though.
          It would suck if you play King and hes benched again
          I dont know which of them Id start

        2. Atimis
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Surely start Ndiaye

          1. White Pony
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 6 days ago

            I have double Sunderland defence if Richards is out, should mention.

        3. Rico123
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Start Ndiaye still for me

      • Atimis
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Which one sounds better?

        1. Pope Saka Enzo 352
        2. Pope Saka Thiago/Welb 343

        3. Pope Eze Bruno 352

        4. Petrovic Saka Wolte 343
        5. Petrovic Saka Gakpo 352

        1. BR510
            1 month, 6 days ago

            not 1 or 5

          • BR510
              1 month, 6 days ago

              either 3 or 4 tbh

              1. Atimis
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 6 days ago

                On 3 now but having second thoughts because of Saka FOMO

            • kysersosa
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 4 days ago

              Is this transfers vs a FH?

              I would say 1 If so. Spurs away is ok for Enzo and next 2 fixtures are WOL and bur.

          • BR510
              1 month, 6 days ago

              So stuck on this one!
              Pedro for Mateta or Pedro for Kroupi and KDH to Mbeumo ( ALL FREE)

              1. Atimis
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 6 days ago

                Does it mean that you play KDH or Kroupi every week? Do you have Bruno?

                1. BR510
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    NO bruno - neither would play

                2. Drizzle
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  Both look good. One costs an extra transfer.

                  It depends on how you want to structure your team.

              2. dansmith1985
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 6 days ago

                Would you guys sell Gyokeres in order to get Gabriel? Calafiori and Saka are my other 2 Arsenal

                1. BR510
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    YES

                  • Atimis
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Honestly, if you kept him for so long, one would feel you have to start him vs Burnley...

                2. Athletic Nasherbo
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  Gakpo > Saka?

                  1. Atimis
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Just for next two imo

                    1. Athletic Nasherbo
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      Wildcarding GW12/13 so would work.

                      1. Atimis
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 6 days ago

                        Yeah

                3. chudbond007
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  How does this look - exact money available?

                  Alderete > Gabriel
                  Reinders > King

                  Just need to get Gabriel in - already got Timber

                  1. Atimis
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Is King a starter? Maybe Miley?

                    1. chudbond007
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      King doesn't need to be a starter for me - just bench boost fodder really - don't want to lose anyone else in my team and I need £1.0m

                      1. Atimis
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 6 days ago

                        So could be it

                4. dansmith1985
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  Mbeumo or Gabriel? Which is more essential? Will be taking a hit to get either in

                  1. Atimis
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Gab ofc

                  2. G-Whizz
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Gabriel imo...

                  3. Tonyawesome69
                    • 6 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    When did Mbeumo become essential?

                5. GW10 fixtures and clean sheet odds
                  G-Whizz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  GW10 fixture odds can be found here:
                  https://prnt.sc/nF3M9piri8KQ
                  (Provided by williamhill.com)

                  GW9 clean sheet results:
                  ARS: 49% ✅
                  CHE: 47% ❌
                  WOL: 43% ❌
                  NEW: 42% ❌
                  BOU: 40% ✅
                  LEE: 40% ❌
                  MCI: 33% ❌
                  EVE: 31% ❌
                  LIV: 31% ❌
                  MNU: 27% ❌
                  TOT: 26% ✅
                  BUR: 25% ❌
                  WHU: 22% ❌
                  AST: 18% ✅
                  BHA: 18% ❌
                  NFO: 18% ❌
                  FUL: 17% ❌
                  BRE: 14% ❌
                  CRY: 14% ❌
                  SUN: 13% ❌

                  Highest weekly clean sheet % odds success rate this season: 67% (up from 62.5% on the previous GW)

                  GW10 clean sheet odds:
                  ARS: 57%
                  FUL: 42%
                  MCI: 40%
                  NEW: 39%
                  BHA: 38%
                  CRY: 34%
                  LIV: 34%
                  EVE: 33%
                  SUN: 33%
                  MNU: 31%
                  CHE: 26%
                  TOT: 24%
                  WOL: 22%
                  NFO: 21%
                  BRE: 20%
                  LEE: 20%
                  WHU: 17%
                  AST: 13%
                  BOU: 13%
                  BUR: 12%
                  (Provided by fantasyfootballpundit.com)

                  GW10 clean sheet % from market odds:
                  ARS: 52%
                  FUL: 40%
                  MCI: 35%
                  NEW: 37%
                  EVE: 34%
                  BHA: 33%
                  LIV: 32%
                  CRY: 31%
                  SUN: 31%
                  MNU: 28%
                  CHE: 24%
                  TOT: 23%
                  WOL: 22%
                  LEE: 19%
                  NFO: 19%
                  BRE: 18%
                  WHU: 16%
                  AST: 13%
                  BOU: 12%
                  BUR: 11%
                  (Provided by pinnacle.com)

                  Market odds highest weekly clean sheet % success rate this season: 70% (up from 67% on the previous GW)

                  Clean sheet totals:
                  Arsenal: 6 (+1)
                  Newcastle: 5
                  Bournemouth: 4 (+1)
                  Man City: 4
                  Spurs: 4 (+1)
                  Sunderland: 4
                  Aston Villa: 3 (+1)
                  Crystal Palace: 3
                  Chelsea: 3
                  Everton: 2
                  Brentford: 2
                  Burnley: 2
                  Leeds: 2
                  Liverpool: 2
                  Fulham: 1
                  Man Utd: 1
                  West Ham: 1

                  *(+1) denotes team kept a clean sheet in GW9

                  Hope you all are doing better than me with 3 consecutive red arrows 😆

                  Finally made some moves which I hope will help stop the rot, and fingers crossed you all have a decent GW and may your arrows (unlike my recent ones lol) be green 😀

                  G

                  1. rainy
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Cheers G 🙂

                    1. G-Whizz
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      You're welcome bruv!

                      Hope you're keeping well 😀

                  2. mookie
                    • 12 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Cheers!

                    1. G-Whizz
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      You're welcome Mookie 😀

                  3. AC/DC AFC
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 5 days ago

                    Thanks, G.

                  4. Captain Beefheart
                    • 12 Years
                    1 month, 4 days ago

                    Thanks mate

                    1. G-Whizz
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 4 days ago

                      My pleasure Captain! *salutes*

                6. Toplad
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  Im thinking of doing Gakpo > Sarr

                  Yes or No ?

                  Thanks in advance

                  1. Atimis
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    I would be getting Gakpo after the next two games

                  2. WVA
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    God no, Sarr is shocking to own

                7. New Article
                8. Stranger Mings
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  Bench fooder at 3.9 on wc a) Tuanzebe BUR (but bad fixs) b) achaempong CHE (but rotation risk) thanks

                9. Lost in fantasy
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 6 days ago

                  Yes or no?

                  Pedro & Reijnders to Wellbeck & Sarr.

                  1. Stranger Mings
                    • 5 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Y