Spot the Differential
10 February 2026 277 comments
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It’s time to look at some more differentials as Gameweek 26 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) comes swiftly into view.

These three players all have an ownership of 5% or less.


JORGEN STRAND LARSEN

  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £6.1m
  • GW26-30 fixtures: BUR | WOL | mun | tot | LEE

While Ismaila Sarr (£6.3m) was the main headline-maker in Crystal Palace’s derby win over Brighton and Hove Albion on Sunday, it’s also important to mention the role played by Jorgen Strand Larsen (£6.1m).

The Norwegian, who played as the lone striker in Oliver Glasner’s 3-4-2-1 formation (see image below), ultimately blanked, but he led the line well, racked up three shots and probably should have scored late on, when his low strike from Daniel Munoz’s (£5.8m) cutback was saved.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) has, of course, been ruled out of Gameweek 26.

It opens the door for a Strand Larsen punt against Burnley, who are ranked 20th for actual and expected goals conceded (xGC) in 2025/26. Scott Parker’s side are also without a win in 16 league matches.

Furthermore, with upcoming fixtures against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United, three of the current bottom five are set to visit Selhurst Park over the next five Gameweeks, before a likely blank in Gameweek 31.

Strand Larsen has obviously only just arrived at Palace, but when you consider the chances Mateta has been presented with this season, it’s clear they will play to his strengths.

“The style of play here suits me. It is intense, high pressure, winning the ball high up the pitch. We had a few chances today, and the more we train together, the more we play together, they will know my qualities and my strengths. I felt like I had a good game today but there is a lot of improvement as well, but a really good start to my journey here. I got fed a lot today and I will be in the future, so I’m looking forward to it.” – Jorgen Strand Larsen

So, while it is Sarr who has understandably attracted the most transfers in this week, having scored in back-to-back Gameweeks, it could actually be Strand Larsen who represents the strongest attacking option against the deep blocks of Burnley and Wolves.


MARTIN ZUBIMENDI

  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW26-30 fixtures: bre + wol | tot | CHE | bha | EVE

Martin Zubimendi (£5.3m) has quietly racked up nine attacking returns in all competitions this season.

Five goals have arrived in the Premier League, the joint-second-most of any Arsenal player:

Now admittedly, Zubimendi doesn’t shoot a lot – he’s averaging a goal attempt every 94.9 minutes in 2025/26.

He doesn’t create much either (139 minutes per chance created), but as a nailed-on, in-form £5.3m ‘doubler’, Zubimendi could be worth a look if, for example, you can’t afford Declan Rice (£7.5m).

It’s also important to mention that Zubimendi has banked defensive contribution (DefCon) points in two of his last six matches, and wasn’t far off in Gameweek 24, with three clearances, six recoveries and two tackles.

Notably, Zubimendi’s strike against Sunderland last week was his second from outside the box this season. Next up are Brentford and Wolves, who both rank in the bottom four for shots conceded from such situations.

“Zubi’s [goal] is a special one as well. He’s contributing now to the team in a way that probably we didn’t expect that much, but he really has an intuition and quality to deliver those moments in and around the box.” – Mikel Arteta on Martin Zubimendi

Beyond the ‘double’, Zubimendi can easily be benched without eating up too much of your budget, so perhaps we shouldn’t be too hasty in overlooking the Spaniard as a valid budget option this week.


TOLU AROKODARE

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW26-30 fixtures: nfo + ARS | cry | AVL | LIV | bre

Another ‘doubler’, Tolu Arokodare (£5.4m) could be gambled on in Gameweek 26.

The Nigerian centre-forward has been presented with some decent chances over the last six Gameweeks, finding the net against Chelsea on Saturday, with his StatsBomb shot map from this period included below.

Tolu’s shot-to-goal conversion rate is admittedly poor this season (6.7%), so you aren’t getting a reliable finisher.

However, his minutes look relatively secure in light of Strand Larsen’s departure.

A four-point floor in Double Gameweek 26 consequently looks possible, then.

Tolu is obviously most likely to get some joy against 17th-placed Nottingham Forest on Wednesday, rather than Arsenal. Indeed, across the Tricky Trees’ last four home matches, they rank 19th for shots conceded and 16th for xGC.

Although Wolves have lost their last three games, performances have been much better under Rob Edwards this year, with favourable results against West Ham United, Everton and Newcastle United.

So, for those needing to free up some cash, Tolu could present a handy solution, and with an ownership of only 0.3%, he also provides a bit of upside if he can build on his goal against Chelsea.


price change predictions
277 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Alli
    • 8 Years
    17 days, 6 hours ago

    A) Dorgu > Saliba
    B) DCL + Dorgu > Kroupi Jr + Timber
    C) DCL + Dorgu > Mané + Timber

    Sanchez
    Chalobah - Gabriel - Mukiele
    Bruno F - Semenyo - Enzo - Mbuemo - Rice
    Haaland - DCL

    Dúbravka - Thiago - Esteve - Dorgu*

    1. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      C

    2. Chrisaa87
      • 4 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Agree

    3. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Gotta be C for the DGW punt. Good luck on picking who you bench for Mane though

    4. Jet5605
      • 11 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      B

    5. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      A

    6. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Mukiele and Dorgu to Timber and Hill

    7. Cold Palms
      • 1 Year
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Munoz has the fixtures

  2. Biggsy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    17 days, 6 hours ago

    Bottom of the last article, but please help my madness I need to downgrade to sort out two injuries and a rubbish back line and can really only see Semenyo and Ekitike as potential sources of funds. 2FT.

    A. Roll
    B. VdV to Lacroix
    C. Ekitike & Dorgu to Mane & Munoz
    D. Semenyo & Dorgu to Munoz & Bruno G

    C, my favourite, allows funds for Ayari to be upgraded in 27 with Mane benched

    Raya
    Gabriel, Andersen, VdV (Rodon, Dorgu)
    Semenyo, Enzo, Bruno F, Rice (Ayari)
    Haaland, Thaigo, Ekitike

    1. Jet5605
      • 11 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Yeah C looks best. See my Q underneath. Ta

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      C

    3. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Many will be buying Ekitike soon. I would go B.

    4. citizenkane
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Don't like selling Ekitike, so B

      1. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Ironically that's what I like most about it. You can talk up XGI all you want, he isn't scoring points

        1. citizenkane
          • 7 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Brace against Newcastle, and if big chance scored against City the narrative would be different. Points will come.

          1. Biggsy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            I've been thinking that since the last time he faced Wolves when I got him in. Nay, when I executed a two week transfer strategy to get him in

            Maybe Semenyo gotta go

            1. citizenkane
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              I feel your pain. In the exact same boat. Pool seem to be clicking a bit more lately, or maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

  3. Jet5605
    • 11 Years
    17 days, 6 hours ago

    3FT and 0.3 ITB. Best option here? Planning DCL to Thiago next week.

    A - Dorgu & Szob > Munoz & KDH and roll 1
    B - Dorgu & Szob > Hill & Sarr and roll 1
    C - Dorgu > Hill and roll 2

    Pickford
    Gabriel - Timber - Dorgu
    BrunoF - Rice - Enzo - Cunha
    Haaland - Ekitike - DCL

    Dub - Szob - Gudmund - Andersen

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      I like A

    2. Chrisaa87
      • 4 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      Just dorgu -->hill

      1. Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        You don't think the Palace fixtures are worth attacking? I'm ditching Rice next week and so BGW31 won't be an issue

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      A

    4. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      C

    5. citizenkane
      • 7 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      A

    6. Sgt. Schultz
      • 9 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      A

  4. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    17 days, 6 hours ago

    Need to get in the car to head down to Stamford Bridge in a bit so need to make a decision on the TC chip on Gabriel before I set off.

    Currently don’t have it active and just the Gabriel (c) in the hope that Haaland gets a DGW later on. I’ve played by BB already so less need to worry about using that in a double.

    Any final thoughts. Ranks is decent so maybe I should just active the chip to keep up with the Joneses.

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      I think (C) is fine to have a net positive EO. So much could go wrong with a late goal or two. I'm saving for a forward

    2. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      I would save TC for later

    3. MIGHTY JOE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      17 days, 6 hours ago

      TC Gab

    4. Punned It
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        I think you sorta promised me you would TC. But good luck either way!

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • 9 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Sorry if I did… each to their own and best of luck if you go for it. I’m just not loving it right now.

          1. Punned It
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              Just an attempt at humour, no worries. I think it'll fetch a fair amount of points, but not break the bank. If you've set your heart on a different GW, I'm not going to talk you out of it. GL!

        2. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          (c) enough I feel. Chances are you'll get another decent TC opportunity later on.

        3. jayzico
          • 15 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          I'm TCing Gab defo

      • citizenkane
        • 7 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Bottomed.

        Bench one:
        A. Kroupi
        B. Senesi
        C. Le Fee

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          C

        2. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          C

      • Tonyawesome69
        • 7 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        For City to potentially have another double, they would need to reach both the UCL SFs and the FAC SFs, which are scheduled around Gameweek 34.

        Man City UCL potential opponents:
        R16: Real Madrid / Inter Milan
        QF: Arsenal / Bayern Munich
        https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/02a1-1fce2f47dac2-92ac3ef0e883-1000--champions-league-knockout-phase-play-off-draw-benfica-vs-re/

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          So Haaland might not double in future and we should all TC Gabriel?

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 7 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            City v Palace from GW31 due to EFL Cup final is still to be rescheduled

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              City v Palace could be rearranged within GW31 if both are out of Europe before the QFs.

              If it's to be rescheduled post GW31, then there's a good chance it will be rearranged to GW33.

          2. Baps Hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Likely to double on 33, but that's optimal BB gw.

            1. Jigger & Pony
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              Why will 33 be a big DGW?

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 6 hours ago

                Free slot which doesn't clash with European fixtures or other cup comps

                1. Jigger & Pony
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  17 days, 6 hours ago

                  Ya but FA Cup semis is GW34. We may get 2-4 teams blank plus their opponents. It’s not going to be a massive DGW.

      • Clickzy
        • 10 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Watkins -> Gyokeres?

        1. Jigger & Pony
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Aye

        2. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          If you have some spare transfers and nothing better to spend them on, yes

      • Legohair
        • 9 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Cunha to Rogers this week or wait for next week?

        1. Jigger & Pony
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Can wait

        2. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          I would wait, especially while there is some doubt re. Mbeumo and his limp

          1. Ze_Austin
            • 7 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Mbeumo is fine

            1. Jet5605
              • 11 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              He may well be but Carrick didn't mention him specifically and we are relying on the say so of someone with contacts at the club.

              1. Ze_Austin
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 6 hours ago

                Man U hasn't hidden injury details for years. Dorgu's injury info came out quickly too under Carrick, IIRC

      • Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        1 FT £0 ITB

        Raya
        Gabriel Chalobah Keane*
        Bruno Mbeumo Rice Enzo Szoboszlai*
        Haaland Pedro
        Dubravka / Thiago Thiaw Alderete

        Q1: Which defender to start?
        A) Alderete
        B) Keane
        C) Thiaw

        Q2: Which transfer route?

        Route #1
        GW26: Szoboszlai > KDH
        GW27: Keane > Senesi/Hill (bench Alderete)
        GW28: Pedro > Ekitike

        Route #2
        GW26: Szoboszlai > Sarr
        GW27: Save FT (play Alderete Ful)
        GW28: Pedro+Rice > Ekitike+Dango/Wilson

      • Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Does anyone think DCL could get some joy at Chelsea?

        1. Jigger & Pony
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Chelsea defensive record is poor if you look at chances conceded stats.

        2. MIGHTY JOE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Sure don’t hope so going in to my third week with double Chelsea defense.

        3. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          25-30% chance prolly

      • Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Tavanier and Guiu to Sarr and Larsen worth a hit?

        1FT 2.9 ITB

        Raya
        Gabriel Tarkowski Mukiele Rodon Andersen
        Fernandes Rice Enzo
        Haaland Etikite

        Dubravka Szoboszlai Tavenier Guiu

        1. Jigger & Pony
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Wouldn’t go double Palace attack

        2. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Pick one, not both and not for a hit

        3. citizenkane
          • 7 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          How about just Tavernier to Sarr? Or if you can upgrade Mukiele to Munoz, Tavernier is a decent hold. Back in GW28 with great fixtures.

      • Henning
        • 11 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Iam i good to go?

        Sanchez
        Gabriel Timber Chalobah Munoz
        Rice Fernandes Rogers Enzo
        Haaland Evanilson

        Dubravk Thiago Dewsbury-Hall Mukiele

        1. Sgt. Schultz
          • 9 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          GTG

      • jayzico
        • 15 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Afternoon.

        Up within 23K. Could be best season yet.

        Screw Haaland, he'll go off the boil dgw. Gabriele TC for me this week.

        Who's in?

        Raya
        Gabriel(TC) - Nunes - Chalobah
        Enzo - Rogers - Bruno.F - Rice
        Haaland - Ekitike - JP

        Kelleher - Scott - Mukiele - Vdv

        1.9m ITB

        Who's with me? MASSIVE TC POINTS for G

        1. Sgt. Schultz
          • 9 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          TC. Let's Go !

          1. jayzico
            • 15 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            YEEEEEEEEEES Sgt. Schultz!

        2. MADCHESTER UTD
          • 10 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Triple Arsenal defence plus Gabriel TC = 10 clean sheets if Arsenal get 2 clean sheets. All or nothing

      • Ronnies
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Neither great options this gameweek, but which one would you start? Mukiele maybe due to the def con possibility?

        A) H Wilson
        B) Mukiele

        Cheers.

        1. citizenkane
          • 7 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          I'd play Mukiele

        2. Ze_Austin
          • 7 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Wilson

      • Forcella Boys
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        Chasing in ML and I am thinking of bringing Madueke in for Wilson ?
        Yes or No ?

        1. Ze_Austin
          • 7 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Nope

      • Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        17 days, 6 hours ago

        One thing I keep wondering, with the logic explained in Gabriel TC arguments, is why Gabriel hasn't been capped more often this season

        1. Punned It
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Haaland been misfiring enough for us to be looking at other captains in recent weeks?

            1. Ze_Austin
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              But then BrunoF took over, not Gabriel. At least in RMTs and polls

          • Biggsy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            For the same reason you don't captain a defender - the major source of their points can be lost at a moments notice and the attacking returns are inconsistent compared to a premium attacker

          • Visionaries
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Fear.

          • Herger
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            He’s not had a game more than everyone else in the other weeks

            1. Ze_Austin
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              True, but there are other DGWs expected this season, which could involve the regular captains

              The DGW makes him an easy captain, yes. It's just rare for me to see TC this heavily used on someone that so many players haven't capped this season

              The logic behind it... Should make him a more regular captain, imo. That's actually my takeaway from it

          • F4L
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            the fun isnt there to be had

          • Captain Mal
            • 1 Year
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            He's never had 70% chance of a CS before.
            Would be different if Arsenal had a reliable attacking asset.

          • Traction Engine Foot
            • 8 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            I should have, I'd have more points

            1. Ze_Austin
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              That's what I meeeean 😀

              1. Traction Engine Foot
                • 8 Years
                17 days, 6 hours ago

                It's definitely more viable to captain defenders now with the DC points. I guess I'm just still a bit stuck in the mindset of always wanting to go for an attacker. And it's still a bit gutting if a defender's CS gets wiped out.

            2. Baps Hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              Me too...

        2. bantamdave
          • 16 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          Whilst the past does not reflect the future, Brentford have failed to score in 2 of Thier last 3 home games (Spurs, Notts Forest). Over the last 12 league games , Brentford have failed to score in 5 of those games( Spurs X2, Chelsea, Notts Forest and Arsenal), scoring against Newcastle, Villa, Sunderland, Wolves, Everton, Leeds and Bournemouth.

          With Wolves a strong possibility of a clean sheet and 13 CSs from 25 definitely a TC on Gab this week.

          Enough data and PPG for Gab

        3. jayzico
          • 15 Years
          17 days, 6 hours ago

          All the oldtimers here TCing the G. Love it.

        4. Seanog1981
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Thoughts on Rice TC.

          • MVDP
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Surprised KDH didn’t make that list.

            1. avfc82
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 16 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              He was in the GW24 diffs so I didn’t want to include him again, but a good option for sure!

              https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2026/01/30/fpl-gameweek-24-differentials-3-low-owned-picks-to-consider

          • Jet5605
            • 11 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Is KDH a safer bet than Rayan? The latter seems a bit punty with a lack of data and league experience

          • AD105
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Play 1 this week v EVE away

            A) Hill
            B) Kroupi

            1. theshazly
              • 2 Years
              17 days, 5 hours ago

              B

          • Brunsvigeren
            • 10 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            3 Fts, My plan is Sczoboslai, H. Wilson, Alderete - > Sarr, KDH, Lacroix and then Bench boost? Thoughts?

            Kelleher
            Gabriel, Timber, Cash
            Rogers, Semenyo, Sarr, KDH, Rice
            Haaland, Ekitike
            Roefs, Lacroix, Guehi, Thiago

            1. Brunsvigeren
              • 10 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              Good idea? 🙂

          • Pep Roulette
            • 8 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Which teams are likely to double in GW33?

          • Visionaries
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            BB active.
            Captain?

            1 Haaland
            2 Gabriel

            1. OptimusBlack
              • 12 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              2

          • OptimusBlack
            • 12 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Pick two to keep till end of season ?
            A- Alderete
            B- Guds
            C- Andersen
            D- Hall
            I want to keep A & B and save money

            1. theshazly
              • 2 Years
              17 days, 5 hours ago

              Agree

          • FDMS All Starz
            • 10 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            What’s better?

            A) Sarr & Munoz
            Or
            B) Semenyo & Hill

            1. OptimusBlack
              • 12 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              A

          • Junks
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Start..

            A. Chalobah
            B. Cash

            1. Sgt. Schultz
              • 9 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              A

          • Pringle
            • 12 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            What would you do with VvD?

            A. Keep
            B. Sell for Calafiori
            C. Sell for Munoz
            .

            1. Webbinho
              • 15 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              I did C. So probably D) capt VVD

          • FDMS All Starz
            • 10 Years
            17 days, 6 hours ago

            Isn’t option A better than option B?

            A) TC Haaland + BB in single gw
            Vs
            B) TC Gabriel + BB in dgw (where your bench would probably be single gw players anyways?)

            1. Ze_Austin
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 6 hours ago

              I'm on A, but it could be BrunoF or Palmer