In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser talks about the FA Cup fifth-round draw and the two teams he’ll actively buy players from in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
Double Gameweek 26 is behind us, and we now need to look at future planning.
There’s a fairly clean state of play until Blank Gameweek 31, where Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers will definitely blank, while Manchester City and Crystal Palace almost certainly will.
The FA Cup fifth-round draw was interesting as, apart from Man City visiting Newcastle United, most top-flight clubs avoided each other. That means we could have a substantial number of teams playing twice in Gameweek 33 and then not at all in Gameweek 34. Free Hit could be a very handy chip for one of these two moments.
Last season, one match from Gameweek 34 stayed there, due to both sides being out of Europe, as the other two moved to Double Gameweek 33, which is what 2025/26’s presumption is based on.
BUYING BRENTFORD
If you’ve already used a Wildcard, or plan to in Gameweek 32, there are two teams to target based on fixtures.
Liverpool and Brentford sit in the top four for expected goals (xG) over the last six Gameweeks, and are in decent form. In fact, the Bees have accumulated the second-most big chances (20) in this period.
I love that Keith Andrews tends to reward form, not being afraid to bench the likes of Mikkel Damsgaard (£5.6m) and Nathan Collins (£5.0m) if others are having a good time.
Next opponents Brighton and Hove Albion aren’t in a great place right now, then it’s Burnley, Wolves and Leeds United in the following four. This trio are all in the worst five for expected goals conceded (xGC) throughout the last six games.
Even if you’re chasing and want to pick differentials, there’s no reason to ignore Igor Thiago (£7.0m). The centre-forward is behind only Erling Haaland (£14.9m) for overall xG, big chances and penalty area shots.
How he didn’t score past Arsenal is a thing of wonder. Non-owners like myself have definitely gotten away with it during the past few weeks, but I don’t think we should risk it any longer.
The beauty of Brentford is that their Gameweeks 32 and 33 fixtures are also pretty good, then hosting West Ham United in Gameweek 35. So your Wildcard intentions don’t matter.
For those looking to add a Bees midfielder to their ranks, Scout has an article comparing Kevin Schade (£6.9m) and Dango Ouattara (£5.8m).
Schade tends to start, but I want to mention that he’s just been suspended for a bit. Maybe wait to see if he faces Brighton, as Andrews could keep Keane Lewis-Potter (£4.8m) in the team.
Perhaps I’m being too cautious but, in my opinion, give it another week.
BIG ON LIVERPOOL
Then there is the Liverpool question. One tweet caught my eye this week, regarding Mohamed Salah (£14.0m).
Now, for the few who already own Salah and want to make a captaincy punt, he’s the one. Put yourself in the position to get lucky.
That said, Florian Wirtz (£8.4m) simply looks more dangerous, and Hugo Ekitike (£8.9m) has a higher volume of shots.
Liverpool are in the top three for xG and xGC over these latest six Gameweeks. In the four games that Salah has been back for, Ekitike has racked up the highest number of big chances (seven), whereas it’s two apiece for Wirtz and the Egyptian.
That said, Salah beats both for close-range attempts (13) and expected goal involvement (xGI, 2.73).
Are we looking at another Palmer situation, where a small number go toward Salah but get handsomely rewarded for it?
Ekitike beats his teammates for xG (2.18), but eye-test winner Wirtz has xG and xGI numbers that are below Domink Szoboszlai (£6.7m).
Like Brentford, the Reds still have good fixtures beyond Gameweek 31, and there’s the motivation of competing to secure a European place.
In defence, Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) is a strong option, as he was very much due for some clean sheet and goal success. They arrived in a huge 17-point haul at Sunderland.
So, while Bournemouth and Fulham also have good short-term fixtures, I prefer purchasing from Liverpool and Brentford.
That’s all from me this week. For those who want to dive deeper into the FA Cup draw’s impact and know how to plan for the future, we cover it on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire.
