Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on the low-priced midfielder debate, when to ditch Joao Pedro (£7.7m), and whether it’s too late to buy in-form Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m).
Q: I think a big question this week is whether ‘four at the back’ is still a good play? For example, many are debating between Joachim Andersen (£4.5m), a fifth midfielder and Eli Kroupi Junior (£4.7m).
(via FPLCEO)
A: I think playing four defenders has been a viable – and some would argue even ‘optimal’ – strategy this season, considering the Premier League’s evolving into dead-ball domination and the introduction of defensive contribution (DefCon) points.
Monsters of the latter, like Andersen and Marcos Senesi (£4.9m), often have a floor of four points. Anytime they keep a clean sheet, throw in bonuses, and you’re suddenly talking about a double-digit score. So I think as a general strategy, yes, it’s very much still a good play.
It’s tricky with Kroupi. He did almost reach 90 minutes against West Ham United, but I thought it was one of his poorer recent performances. There was no real relationship with Evanilson (£6.9m), and there was a real disconnect between their forwards and midfield.
Andoni Iraola loves Evanilson for the pressing work he does, so he’s unlikely to come out of the XI, unless it’s rotation over fixture congestion. Maybe Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) comes into Kroupi’s number 10 role, but his post-injury starting minutes are also unpredictable.
Still, I’d be tempted to play Kroupi in Gameweek 28 as he does have the potential to score when he starts, especially at home. Opponents Sunderland are struggling a little bit defensively, too.
Q: Should Nico O’Reilly be everyone’s next purchase? If you could only bring in one player out of O’Reilly, Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) and Dango Ouattara (£5.9m), who would it be? Is Harry Wilson (£5.9m) now too much of a minutes risk?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: O’Reilly playing in midfield is likely to stick, knowing what he offers at both ends of the pitch and if you can accommodate him without much detriment to your Blank Gameweek 31 squad, he’s a top buy. If you’re planning to get him now and sell after three Gameweeks, then perhaps less so.
So, for this ranking, let’s put O’Reilly aside for now as I think that’s purely team-dependent.
Both Wilson and Dango have outstanding fixtures in the next four Gameweeks, constantly playing sides from the bottom half of the table. There’s not much to split Brentford and Fulham either in terms of expected goals (xG, 8.60 vs 8.65).
However, Dango is the top midfielder for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI, 3.10) over the last six Gameweeks, while Wilson has 2.04. Then again, Wilson is continually defying xG numbers, meaning we perhaps shouldn’t read too much into that.
It’s a very close call. They are both good picks, but I don’t want to sit on the fence here.
I think Wilson’s best spell coincided with Alex Iwobi‘s (£6.3m) Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) absence. Everything went through the Welshman. Although he’s the more reliable pick, I think I prefer Dango over these games, especially if you’re comfortable in your mini-leagues. It just feels like the latter has more potential for a big haul.
With van Dijk, Liverpool’s data is mixed. The team sits eighth for expected goals conceded (xGC, 7.67) over the last six Gameweeks, with their clean sheet at Nottingham Forest being particularly fortunate.
However, there has been a clear impetus to involve their captain more in set-pieces, and they have excellent dead-ball delivery from Mohamed Salah (£14.0m) and Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.8m). His DefCon is lessening, but there is still decent potential there, and there’s a confirmed Blank Gameweek 31 fixture.
Liverpool could concede against West Ham, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton and Hove Albion. But these opponents rank third, 19th, 15th and 17th for recent xG, so the data is there to back this defence.
Above: The lowest non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) tallies over each team’s six matches
Yet several other FPL managers and I are debating whether to sell Jurrien Timber (£6.4m) for van Dijk. The Arsenal man’s data has worsened of late, but I think that’s affected by Noni Madueke (£6.8m) playing ahead of him, rather than Bukayo Saka (£9.8m).
The Gunners’ defence is still miles ahead as the league’s best, and I don’t think he’s a priority sale. Though if you have lots of free transfers and need to make room for Blank Gameweek31, I understand the move.
So, to answer your question, my order of priority would be to buy Dango, Wilson, van Dijk, and then O’Reilly.
Q: In a poor market for forwards, is Raul Jimenez (£6.1m) currently flying under the radar?
(via Raoul Nogues)
A: When a player is subbed around the 60-minute mark when he’s chasing a hat-trick, I think that tells you all you need to know. Raul will be Fulham’s first-choice striker in the short term, but that could flip at any time. His minutes are always going to be managed and, for that reason alone, he’s one to avoid.
Q: The Dango v Wilson v Rayan (£5.6m) conundrum seems to be a recurring theme of this week. Does it make sense to get two or even three of these budget midfielders when funds aren’t an issue?
(via I have no Wirtz)
A: I think many managers are considering buying Florian Wirtz (£8.4m) over this trio due to price bias. More expensive players give a perception of increased points potential, but that isn’t always the case.
The German international is nursing a back problem, and Liverpool are entering a congested fixture period where there are no free midweeks until the next international break. The budget midfielders having a reliability of minutes, coupled with longer rest periods, could prove pivotal.
So I think buying several lower-priced names is perfectly reasonable. Of course, Wirtz could still be great, but the price of these alternatives shouldn’t cloud such a decision.
Q: If your Wildcard is already used, how should Blank Gameweek 31 be navigated? I currently have eight players available for that moment, and no free transfers.
(via After Supper Ghost Stories)
A: Without a wildcard, fielding less than 11 players in the blank is perfectly fine. You just have to make sure they are the right players, with an attractive fixture run that goes beyond these next four Gameweeks.
Brentford are a great option for this. Although Fulham have the best Gameweek 31 fixture, their following run isn’t impressive. Not that they’re a bad pick up.
But look at fixtures over the next six-to-eight Gameweeks, rather than these upcoming four. You likely won’t have a full set of doublers in Gameweek 33 either, but that’s also fine.
Q: Due to Chelsea’s poor fixtures and Liverpool’s appealing fixtures, is it worth moving Joao Pedro to Hugo Ekitike (£8.9m)?
(via @SamuelOlaluwoye)
A: I’ve always been a fixture-head, and would usually say yes. While Pedro probably ticks along in these fixtures, his haul potential is definitely low.
On the other hand, this season has been about form, and these players top the NPxGI tables over the last six Gameweeks. That’s why holding onto Pedro is ok, if your focus is on building a team for Blank Gameweek 31.
But if you have enough free transfers, I would make the move to Ekitike.
