Scouting The Doubles
17 April 2026 0 comments
FPL Marc FPL Marc
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Six top-flight teams, including Burnley, are about to play twice in Gameweek 33 – the biggest ‘double’ of this Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season.

We’ve already covered a lot of chip strategy last week and early this week, including Wildcard, Bench Boost and Free Hit articles.

But for those managers not deploying any chip, just using ordinary free transfers and/or looking more of a deep-dive into Gameweek 33, we’re ‘Scouting the Doubles’.

So, for the sake of completion (!), let’s analyse Burnley’s opponents and identify some appealing FPL individuals.


FIXTURE DIFFICULTY

A team with one win in 23, the Clarets could end this Double Gameweek with relegation mathematically certain. Although they did deny Nottingham Forest and Manchester City clean sheets in September’s reverse meetings.

However, both opponents now have something to play for and will be relying on three points to come here.

xG rank (last six)xG rank (season)xGC rank (last six)xGC rank (season)
Nott’m Forest17th16th11th14th
Man City1st2nd3rd2nd

As anticipated, a lot of underlying stats have title-chasing Man City as one of the best, doomed Burnley as one of the worst, and relegation-threatened Forest generally lingering in the lower half.

For example, Scott Parker’s lot are rock bottom for season-long expected goals (xG, 28.00) and expected goals conceded (xGC, 64.03), as well as xGC in the last six (13.18).

Pep Guardiola’s men have the best recent xGC (11.16) and are the highest overall scorers (63 goals). Interestingly, Burnley have found the net more often than Forest (33 v 32).

At the back, Man City are second for clean sheets (13), but at a slower rate since Gameweek 19 ended. Burnley have the joint-fewest (four), where the Gameweek 30 success still had Bournemouth rack up 2.55 xG.

Rising to the challenge, Forest find themselves unbeaten in four, conceding only once in three matches since an impressive 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium. Vitor Pereira’s side has shut out five of the last 11 opponents.

But if FPL managers want to spot some weaknesses, Forest could be tired after Thursday’s second leg versus Porto. They’ve also conceded the third-most headed attempts (90).

Best Burnley players for FPL Double Gameweek 33 2

Above: How teams fare in 15-minute periods, according to SoccerStats

Meanwhile, Man City tend to weaken after the break. First halves combine for a 35-8 goal domination, but it’s 28-20 in the second. In fact, they’d be top of the league by far, had matches stopped at 45 minutes.

WHO IS AT RISK OF ROTATION?

Using our new Minutes Tracker, which you’ll find in the Members Area, we can view the game time of players. A white block means they were not in the Burnley squad.

Why is this useful? In brief, anticipating rotation!

Best Burnley players for FPL Double Gameweek 33

From the latest five, it looks like Martin Dubravka (£4.0m), Maxime Esteve (£3.9m), Bashir Humphreys (£3.9m), Jaidon Anthony (£5.0m) and Zian Flemming (£5.3m) are nailed starters. Flemming missed Gameweek 29 because of a tight calf.

Centre-back Humphreys has played almost every minute since Gameweek 18’s recovery from injury, but Hannibal Mejbri‘s (£4.7m) problem is estimated to keep him out until Gameweek 35.

Besides these are veterans Kyle Walker (£4.4m) and James Ward-Prowse (£5.6m). The defender was limited to a Gameweek 32 cameo, just as January’s loanee arrival started for the third time in a row.

BEST FPL PLAYERS TO PICK

Defence

FPL notes: Why King + O'Brien were subs, Paqueta ban + Dubravka defended 2

Very little stands out, in all honesty. The only Burnley players with at least 2.5% overall ownership are cheap bench assets Martin Dubravka and Maxime Esteve.

The 37-year-old is number one for goalkeeping saves (114) and save points (28), but the Clarets have conceded multiple goals on 22 occasions.

Best Burnley players for FPL Double Gameweek 33 3

French centre-back Esteve is the league’s joint-fifth-best defender for defensive contribution (DefCon) points (30), achieving them at a rate of 51.7%. But he lacks either an attacking return or any big chances.

The sole asset with a goal is Axel Tuanzebe (£3.9m), and he’s not played since early February.

Attack

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Burnley’s only player to reach the 100-point mark is Jaidon Anthony, whose four-in-six start to the season included strikes past both Forest and Man City.

In closer times, the winger secured a goal and an assist against Brentford in Gameweek 28. His four subsequent outings brought good enough underlying numbers for the ‘Goals Imminent’ table.

He tried hard to deny Brighton and Hove Albion a clean sheet last weekend, denied by an offside decision and a point-blank save.

Up front, Zian Flemming didn’t start until Gameweek 8, but has been in the last seven available lineups. He has eight goals to his name, including three in the most recent five.

Best Burnley players for FPL Double Gameweek 33 4

Above: Most shots inside the box since Gameweek 25 got underway

Furthermore, from Gameweek 25 onwards, the Dutchman ranks second for attempts (24) and penalty area efforts (20). He’s third for shots on target (nine) and big chances (eight).

Not bad, considering he missed a match.


FINAL THOUGHTS

In short, given the equally priced alternatives at Leeds (a better side with better fixtures), Burnley are just mostly hard avoids.

Flemming is about the only name worth considering if your budget is limited and you can only stretch to a forward of up to £5.5m. He’s looked threatening in the last few months, with his underlying numbers and his minutes-per-goal average very competitive.

All hope for defensive returns is on the Forest fixture. The Tricky Trees aren’t exactly free-scoring, so there does exist the chance Dubravka could bag an unexpected clean sheet. Despite the faint hope, Karl Darlow (£3.9m) remains the go-to budget ‘keeper this Gameweek and beyond.


FPL Marc Broadcaster, writer and overthinker. Hoping that ‘differential potential’ will catch on.

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