Apart from Sofascore’s Nations League Fantasy game, of course, this long international break can be used as a period of reflection for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
Which decisions went well? Which weren’t wise? And how much was simply bad luck?
Using a mix of statistics and observations, here are 10 key takeaways that can help us succeed from Gameweek 6 onwards.
Hull are alright
Predicted to finish last, in a way that made last season’s Wolverhampton Wanderers look like Brazil 1970, Hull City won their initial two matches. They didn’t concede before Gameweek 4, either, and were undefeated until Gameweek 5.
Defenders Semi Ajayi (£4.2m) and Nobel Mendy (£4.1m) scored on the opening day, as goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis (£4.6m) has only once delivered fewer than six points. Wing-back Ryan Giles (£4.0m) is the top-flight’s most frequent crosser (43, see table below). Mohamed Belloumi (£5.1m) netted twice in the draw at Chelsea, too.
Perhaps last weekend was the start of a more realistic campaign. But the Tigers have given themselves a great platform for fighting relegation.
As for the other original £4.0m defenders, we now know that Leif Davis (£4.0m) can produce in the Premier League, having been hyped before a poor 2024/25. Already on four attacking returns, he’s helped Ipswich Town win twice and net multiple goals on three occasions.
Coventry City’s Bobby Thomas (£4.0m) is this position’s best for attempts (10) and penalty area shots (eight). Jay Dasilva (£4.0m) meanwhile scored the Sky Blues’ only goal of the campaign.
Good attackers can haul against any defence
This isn’t just about Pascal Gross (£5.8m) securing 13 points past Chelsea and 14 versus Arsenal. The latter match saw teammate Charalampos Kostoulas (£5.6m) score and assist, 24 hours before Brian Brobbey (£5.7m) bagged a 17-point hat-trick away to Manchester City. Also, back in Gameweek 2, Morgan Gibbs-White (£8.0m) reached 13 at Anfield.
Basically, apart from Arsenal – and even they are prone to an off-day – none of the ‘big’ sides is defensively convincing.
Manchester United are yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding twice in each of their first three outings. And Chelsea, without a Premier League shutout in 21 matches, have outdone that by letting in two or more every time.
Until a recent good patch, Liverpool carried over their own bad run from late 2025/26. Plus, as mentioned, Man City just let in three at home to Sunderland.
So, if you own a good low-priced attacker like Gross, Kevin Schade (£6.2m) or Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m), maybe don’t automatically bench them when the Fixture Ticker shows red. Away at Chelsea, Marcus Tavernier (£6.1m) is fine to play in Gameweek 6, for example.
Arsenal aren’t dominating set pieces
Meanwhile, a large part of Arsenal’s title-winning success was their notoriously excellent record at scoring from manufactured set-piece processes. It made a name of Nicolas Jover.
It happened 25 times, setting a new Premier League record for season-long goals from corners (19).
As well as Gabriel Magalhaes (£8.0m) having 23 shots, Declan Rice (£7.4m) accumulated the highest expected assists (xA, 3.27) from such routines.
However, rules have been introduced to clamp down on penalty area pulling and wrestling. So far, Arsenal haven’t scored from a set-piece and are a lowly 14th for attempts (17).
Wasteful Barry
Appealing as a cheap forward who is the seemingly secure starter at mid-table Everton, deflecting in James Tarkowski’s (£6.1m) Gameweek 5 long shot brought Thierno Barry (£5.6m) his second goal of the season.
He can be frustrating to own, though. A later header was disallowed by VAR, and he’s missed six big chances in total, two of which came in a Gameweek 2 blank that – according to expected goals (xG) – should have seen him score 1.48 times.
Yet Barry is third for overall xG (3.50), where only Erling Haaland (£15.6m) beats him for big chances (see table above) and shots in the box (16). He’s worth keeping for upcoming fixtures against Hull and Chelsea, then.
Bournemouth, Brentford + Leeds: The DefCon masters
Five Gameweeks is a decent-ish sample size for detecting early defensive contribution (DefCon) trends.
For instance, Brentford (461), Bournemouth (423) and Leeds United (420) boast the most DefCon actions.
Daniel Farke’s squad has racked up 26 FPL points from these, slightly ahead of Brentford, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest (24). His trio of Anton Stach (£6.0m), Tarik Muharemovic (£5.0m) and long-throw specialist Ethan Ampadu (£5.4m) rank amongst the highest eight individual tallies…
Similarly, Brentford and Newcastle United have three players on six such points.
Marcos Senesi (£5.8m) may have left the Cherries, but replacement Antonio Silva (£5.0m) looks just as good for DefCon, reaching the threshold on four of five occasions. Midfield colleague Alex Scott (£6.1m) did so twice, narrowly falling short in a couple of other encounters, while grabbing one goal and two assists.
Special mentions go to Kobbie Mainoo (£5.5m), an achiever of DefCon in all four starts, and Jannik Schuster (£4.5m), who has a 100% record from two starts plus a substitute appearance.
Alternatively, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton and Hove Albion and Man City have been particularly poor in this area.
Forest have promising defensive numbers
Like Antonio Silva, defender Murillo (£5.5m) has four DefCon returns.
He’s part of a tight Forest backline that has leaked the fewest attempts (52) and big chances (six), bettered only by Arsenal for expected goals conceded (xGC, 4.77) and restricting shots on target (15).
This makes their shock home defeat to Coventry even more frustrating for managers who fielded their defensive assets. The Tricky Trees are on just one clean sheet so far.
Still, Oliver Glasner is adding immediate solidity to a defence that had the biggest xGC of all 2025/26 survivors (57.32). Perhaps owning an attacking wing-back – Daniel Munoz (£5.4m) or Neco Williams (£5.0m) – will prove beneficial over time.
Sangare isn’t the set-and-forget we hoped for
Club-record Brentford signing, Mamadou Sangare (£5.6m), was hyped in pre-season as FPL’s next Elliot Anderson (£6.3m), because his last year at Lens featured three goals, four assists and a whopping 14.19 DefCon actions per 90.
Sure enough, he successfully hit the midfield threshold (12) in Gameweek 1, also setting up two goals in a headline-grabbing 14-pointer.
Over 1.2 million bought Sangare between then and Gameweek 3, when he was removed at half-time versus Sunderland. Furthermore, he was only a substitute against Chelsea.
All three matches where he’s lasted over 45 minutes brought DefCon returns, but the form of Yehor Yarmoliuk (£4.8m) and two-goal Vitaly Janelt (£5.0m) – number one in the league for DefCon actions (64) – adds short-term uncertainty.
Saka + Odegaard impress
Back to attack, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£9.5m) has started all five matches. Last season, he only once began more than five in a row (between Gameweeks 6 and 13).
Excitingly, Saka’s already on three goals, is the leading midfielder for big chances (six), and is next-best after Haaland for shots on target (nine).
Martin Odegaard (£6.8m) also seems rejuvenated after a 2025/26 campaign that only once saw more than two consecutive 2025/26 league starts (Gameweeks 17 to 23).
Two double-digit hauls belong to the Norwegian, as does a Champions League strike past Napoli. Plus, he’s an expected assists (xA) underperformer (-1.31) and responsible for the second-most successful passes into the box (21, see table above).
Odegaard’s previous three seasons began with off-putting £8.5m and £8.0m values. This time, his price is much more appealing.
Newcastle are lucky to be on eight points
Elsewhere, a huge summer of change on Tyneside saw Matthias Jaissle take Eddie Howe’s place in the dugout, as a few first-teamers said goodbye, replaced by young overseas talents.
A transitional period was expected, but the Magpies have actually won two and drawn two of the five matches.
However, underlying stats suggest they’ve been quite lucky. Newcastle lost the xG battle in every game (only the Hull one was close), reaching nine goals but merely nine big chances.
They join Coventry on the second-lowest number of shots (51), and no side has gifted more to opponents (97). Just Coventry and Aston Villa have a worse xG goal difference (-3.73). Opta Analyst says they’re rock bottom on the table of expected points, too.
But it’s good to put points on the board. Once the players and head coach get used to each other, performances should improve.
The new ‘Pep Roulette’?
Finally, a bit on Man City. After 10 years in charge, Pep Guardiola decided it was time to depart, replaced by former assistant Enzo Maresca.
Despite handing just two starts to Nico O’Reilly (£6.3m), the Italian is showing consistency by naming seven players in every league lineup – including Haaland, Anderson, Antoine Semenyo (£8.4m) and Josko Gvardiol (£5.7m).
Does this make his XIs easier to predict? Well, the usual problems could lie ahead. Enzo Fernandez (£6.9m) and Iliman Ndiaye (£5.8m) signed on transfer deadline day, with Jeremy Doku (£7.4m) now back from a calf injury.
We’ve already seen Rayan Cherki‘s (£7.8m) minutes be unreliable, and Phil Foden (£6.9m) get benched at home to Coventry. Proceed with caution.
