Ahead of the launch of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game’s player price list I launched a Price Prediction Challenge where the Fantasy Football Scout community attempted to guess the prices of 50 players. With the prices now published I am pleased to announce the winner is Henrzd. Congratulations, and thank you to all who took part.
The results in full are below, with just one casualty from our original list of 50 โย Paulo Gazzaniga, who has not been priced.
Analysis
One key statistic stands out amongst our guesses. Of the 117 FFScout community members that made predictions, 108 of us predicted higher prices than FPL have provided.
In terms of the individual players, here are the highlights. This compares the FFScout predicted average to the player’s actual price:
Underpriced
- Yaya Toure is the most underpriced player โย more than 1.0 cheaper than expected.
- A few more strikers are underpriced โย Mario Balotelli, Bafetimbi Gomis, Romelu Lukaku and Bojan are all at least 0.5 cheaper than predicted.
- Three midfielders stand out โย Jordan Henderson, Angel Di Maria and Cesc Fabregas are all at least 0.5 cheaper.
- A few noteworthy others โRobert Huth, Victor Valdes, Ryan Bertrand, Branislav Ivanvoic, Troy Deeney, Aaron Ramsey, Joleon Lescott and Alexis Sanchezย ย are all at least 0.25 cheaper than the FFScout Average.
Overpriced
- Just seven players are greater than ยฃ0.1 more expensive than predicted.
- Southampton trio Jay Rodriguez, Sadio Mane and James Ward-Prowse fit into this band.
- The remaining four are Wayne Rooney (+0.3), Sergio Aguero (+0.4), Matt Ritchie (+0.5) and Daniel Sturridge (+0.7).
The Results
To find a winner, I went with a points-based system. This system rewarded those who achieved a high number of perfect predictions, or were consistently very close. So, this is based on a scoring system of three points for a perfect prediction and one point for a prediction 0.5 either side of the actual price.
WINNER: Henrzd: 103 points
GIGGS BOSON: 102
FeverPitch: 98
Black: 97
gingafalcao: 97
Lyonnais: 97
Weasel666: 96
Deck Chair: 95
jambo17: 95
Debauchy: 95
Saint Steve-O: 94
rickytoso: 94
James H: 93
The 12th Man: 93
roscola: 93
GreenWindmill: 93
Mr.Grv: 92
Wayne di Persie: 91
Moddle: 90
Hasselbaink – FFS CWC Champโฆ: 90
Utd Gaal-vanized: 90
Shorty89: 90
Sticky Mockwell: 89
Troy McClure: 88
Sleep Talk: 88
Adam West: 87
opentag: 86
Innsie: 86
wachu: 85
Jay1042: 85
Myo Min Thant: 85
JJO: 85
Jigger and Pony: 85
DAT GUY โช: 84
Spectre: 84
Milanista.: 84
Long Juan Silva: 84
Numb: 84
El Muรฑeco: 84
Swegshinji: 83
The Nuttman 42: 83
Paracelsus: 83
nickofoz: 83
Lawro: 83
Bang On: 83
Beavis: 82
Baines on Toast…: 82
Stimpy: 82
CoolBeans: 82
SAB (NZ for the DZ)ย : 82
Hangover United: 82
Werder Bremner: 81
Saniul: 81
nivz 32: 81
Triggy: 81
Zombie: 81
Konig Luther: 80
Bedknobs and Boomsticks – Bโฆย : 80
Holmes: 80
buffrey: 80
PKWrona: 79
Vatroslav: 79
Mufc Luhg: 79
thes7s: 79
Milan: 79
Lucy.: 79
Frank Black: 79
AT: 79
disable: 78
pundit of punts: 78
john terrys dog- CWC champiโฆย : 77
MaRooney 5: 77
Hamstergod: 76
Panti Keeper: 76
Hibbopotamus: 76
Hvt: 76
Duลกan Citizen: 75
Coffee Bean: 75
its my main man Didier Drogโฆย : 75
Hullcitytiger96: 75
djenzio: 75
rdamjan: 75
Doosra – Downing the Noble โฆ: 75
Hulky Punter 42: 75
Brett Dennen: 74
Moin: 74
Essan: 73
thepuntmaster: 72
Sanchez: 72
Bigo1: 71
Jonty: 71
Fantasy_enzo: 70
Sharkytect: 68
Lebanese Lalous: 68
Looking to do better than lโฆย : 68
No Luck: 66
The Sarjeant: 66
Adetro: 64
Ricky – passed with flying โฆย : 64
gerrardl: 63
Xearomis: 61
JamesMartin013: 60
Just A Hat: 58
Zero: 57
Polo: 55
