Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Shaikh91
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on this team?

    Foster cech
    Mendy, bednarek, wan bis, Simpson, Shaw
    Kdb, ozil, richarlison, mane, jota
    Aguero, iheanacho, laca

  2. Emiliano Sala
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Jurgen Klopp, 10:45
    Unai Emery, 13:00
    Maurizio Sarri, 13:15
    Pep Guardiola, 13:30

    1. Francescoli
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Ooo yeah

    2. hannibalos
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Mark, when? 🙂

    3. Gazpilicueta
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      are these on sky sports or somewhere else?

      1. Emiliano Sala
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Yes

        1. Smurf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 5 months ago

          Which channel?

          1. Emiliano Sala
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 5 months ago

            Oh I thought he talked about website. Sorry I don't know

  3. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    No one liking lacazette?

    1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      If you can deal with the odd disappointment of him not starting then go for him, I had him but managed to create the funds to get Aubameyang

    2. Justin Credibles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I have him at the moment over Aubameyang

  4. FPL Blow-In
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    I guess his has been asked a lot.

    Will Kepa go straight in gw1 over Cab for Chelsea?

    1. Fabregasm
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Prob not for GW1, but surely for GW2 and forward

  5. Francescoli
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Best 6.5-7.0 mid?

    1. GREEN IS GOOD
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Jota for me.

    2. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      lots in that category - for me it's Gross

    3. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I like Richarlison in the short term, well-rested , going to get better service and suits playing under Silva

    4. lsorin
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Richarlison

  6. Benster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Pity Hughes didn't say anything about his Central Defenders.

    Pretty set on my team but just need to decide between Bednarek and Peltier.

    Really want Bedders for his fixtures, but feel Peltier is more nailed. Guess it doesn't make a great deal of difference but any thoughts?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Bednarek at least has Prem experience.
      Peltier has potential for - scores too

    2. XABI 15
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      get them both

  7. bring_on _the_fantasy
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Is Firmino's game time going to be limited given the form of Sturridge??

    I wouldnt be surprised if Sturridge started. Best pre season attacking player in the Liverpool squad!

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I still see Firmino starting most games, but maybe getting hit with that 60 minute sub for Sturridge

    2. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Not much, but enough for me to get Mane instead

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Just to see him getting subbed by Shaqiri?!? 😉

    3. Chrisirwin01
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Same here, wouldn't be surprised if Sturridge started. But I'm not willing to take that risk. Opting for King instead.

  8. Fabregasm
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Would love some help on my last little problem:
    a) Bilva, Sanchez and Austin
    b) Mahrez, Neves and Firmino + 0,5itb.

    Thinking Mahrez has a higher point ceiling and I'm getting cold feet on Austin now that Ings has signes... Thanks in advance guys!

  9. KG11
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Zaha or Tosun??

  10. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Bottomed. Pick one:

    A) Auba + Peltier
    B) Laca + Coleman

    1. Fabregasm
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A, assuming that Peltier is fodder only

  11. onceuponatyne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    No love for Danny Ings now he's made his move?
    5.5m...

    I'm giving him a shot. He'll be on my bench to begin with, but I think he'll get a lot of gametime.

    1. Paganoi
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Still tinkering but he's on my bench atm.

    2. Make United Great Again
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Rather wait and see with him

    3. RIDZ
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Better you spread the money if you get him only for your bench.

    4. onceuponatyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I've actually got the team I want, and 1.5m in the bank (I'll be getting Trippier in first chance).
      I also want Kenedy (5m, huge part of the Toon attack and all of their freekicks and corners) - but probably go Cairney until the fixtures improve.

      Just not sure I'd rather have any of the other 6.5/7m strikers than Danny Ings. I think he's seriously undervalued.

      This is me:

      De Gea (Begovic)
      PVA, Mendy, Schlupp, Robertson (Wan-Bissaka)
      Salah, B Silva, Jota, Richarlison (Cairney)
      Tosun, Aguero (Ings)

  12. MrFootieIsHere
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    So I can FINALLY submit my team and log off(!) from FPL:

    Foster
    Tomkins Robertson Mendy
    Salah Mane Mahrez Richarlison
    Aguero Arnie King

    (Hamer Peltier Bednarek Masuaku)

  13. luke25
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    D Sanchez & King +1.5m or Chambers & Firmino

    Thanks

  14. MGD
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Will Kepa start this weekend?

    "The Chelsea boss has already decided to hand Kepa an immediate debut in the Blues’ Premier League opener against Huddersfield on Saturday, though Kovacic is lacking the required match sharpness.

    Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2018/08/09/kepa-arrizabalaga-mateo-kovacic-spotted-chelsea-training-maurizio-sarri-makes-debut-decision-7820483/?ito=cbshare"

    1. John78
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      i have him in my team!

    2. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Been quite widely reported by both fans and media that he will. Guess it's easier for a Kepa to play immediately, outfield players have to gel with their team a bit / get fitness.

      1. MGD
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        True that. Will probably start him and maybe Stekelberg would come in if he dsnt play. But who knows 🙂

    3. Pompel
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Great info!

  15. Kinder Mbueno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Mina: worth a punt with those fixtures or wait and see how he settles?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      If you can afford for him not to play this week i'd maybe go for it , can't see him not starting with their other options and the amount that they paid for him

      1. Kinder Mbueno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Is he definitely a no go this week?

        1. slove
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 5 months ago

          I wouldn’t say definitely but it’s a punt that a deadline day move will start two days later

    2. MJM
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I'm going to bench him for GW1: his goalscoring stats are immense.

  16. Prakatan
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    RMT Please-

    So like you all I have changed my squad at least a million times but I think I have settled on the below for the first few weeks.

    Pickford
    Mendy Robertson Dunk
    Salah (c) B Silva Richarlson Neves
    Aguero Auba Mitrovic

    Begovic - Wan B - Redmond

    Thanks

  17. John Colby (C)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Sorry for the repost but it's important. Which option should I go for:

    Option A: Luiz and Fraser
    Option B: Rudiger and Cairney

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      its def not that important but a clearly

  18. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Who’s everyone got playing tonight in the Opening Fixture?

    Just Sanchez for me

    1. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Punt on Shaw

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Expecting big things from my Mata punt

  19. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Which player most likely to have the first triple price rise

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Jota.

      1. slove
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Jota and £1m or B.Silva?

        1. onceuponatyne
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 5 months ago

          Get both in ftw.

  20. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Tomkins or Cedric? I figure if Cedric doesn't play week one then AWB can cover

    1. MGD
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      On this dilemma too.. Will probably get both and ship Dunk

  21. MrFootieIsHere
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Bottomed:

    A) PvA + Bilva
    2) Tomkins + Mahrez

    Who would you choose and why?

    1. hewsoa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Tomkins and Mahrez

      Silva such a short term selection -2/3 Gameweeks at most before the world class miss return

      1. hewsoa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Mids!

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      2 if i had the extra .5

  22. lsorin
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Bottom on the last page.
    Pick one:
    1) TAA + Peltier;
    2) Tomkins + Stephens;

    * already have Wan-Bissaka

    1. MrFootieIsHere
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      2 - nailed starters and Tomkins stronger attacker

  23. RIDZ
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Are those with Salah+Firmino/Mane still have Liverpool defender?

    Isn't it better to spread the risk with Spurs/Chelsea/MU defender?

    Currently have Salah+Mane+Robbo and tempted to swap Robbo with Davies or Smalling. Stick or twist?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      It isn't diversifying your risk very much I agree with that but i just think if you're going to have a triple up from any team then Robbo Salah and Mane is the triple up to have

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Reds are very attacking from all areas. Robbo was lethal end of last season. I’m going with 3 but I’m bias lol.

  24. Djemba-Djemba
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Best 4.5 emergency mid when everyone else is injured?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I just went for Stephens as he will play

  25. Please Help I Don't Kn…
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Interesting observations from my team selection for GW 1:

    1. I only have 6 players from the 'top 6', 3 of which are Liverpool players.

    2. I don't have either of the 2 most expensive players in the game (Kane and Salah).

    3. I'm starting with no City players (due to rotation headaches, but will probably get one or two in after a few weeks).

    4. I have the same number of Palace players (PVA, Mili and Zaha) than as of these teams combined: Chelsea, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs and Arsenal (Eriksen, Auba and Bailly).

    Idk why I just wanted to share.

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      i think id probs look again if my team makeup was similar, look at who scored all the points last year. Also I don't think it will be the same but palace lost there first 7 without scoring last year.

  26. Champione
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Who will score more for the first 5-6 GWs; Mitrovic, Zaha or Walker?

    1. Ibralicious
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Zaha, is that even a question

      1. Champione
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        cheers. Yes, it is

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      fancy mitro to odo well

  27. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Best combo here?

    A) Ederson, Stek, Peltier & Mahrez
    B) Foster, Fabs, Mendy & B Silva

    xxx, xxx
    Robbo, Shaw, Tomkins, WB, xxx

  28. Loðbrók
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Holebas anyone?

  29. Egg noodle
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Richarlison or Tosun? Assume they cost the same..

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I think Richarlison might outscore Tosun and he saves you that 0.5m

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      tosun for me, he's the spearhead

  30. jg7u
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Which pair is better?

    A) Mane + zaha
    B) Moura + Firmino

    No other Spurs assets.