Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Smurf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Why has Maddison’s yellow flag not been removed after Puel declaring him ready for tonight. Has something else happened to him?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Just FPL being lazy

  2. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Happy deadline tinkering day guys and gals.

    Anyone looking for a fun league to join copy and paste this code 260578-53738

    Regular shout outs and some legendary posters all ready and waiting to go.

    All welcome gravies included.

    1. Chockky
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      thank you

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Why not. I’m in if it’s for fun

  3. Ibralicious
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Can't make my mind up on this final call.
    Current defence:

    Mendy, TAA, ______ , Wan-Bissaka, Peltier

    A) Cedric
    B) Tomkins (palace double-up if AWB off the bench)
    C) Boly/Doherty

    Cheers!

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Boly

    2. LanzaLions
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I've just changed to Doherty as looks like he will be playing in midfield

    3. jayzico
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Boly if 4.5

      1. Ibralicious
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers, any reason why him over Doherty?

  4. Demel
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Would you gamble and start Ings or play safe and start Fraser?

    1. Andy'81
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I wouldn't even start with Ings in my squad, he only signed yesterday with Southampton so will be a major doubt for GW 1.

      1. Demel
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        I don't need him for gw1. I think he will be first choice. As long as he plays in gw3/4 etc then that is fine for me.

        1. Andy'81
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 5 months ago

          I'd put more emphasis on GW's 1-2 then worry about what could possibly happen in GW's 3-4, he's only a 5.5m rated forward so he'll never be more than one FT away if needed.

    2. Paganoi
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Fraser. Better fixture imo.

    3. Shearer & Sutton
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Fraser

  5. Please Help I Don't Kn…
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    RP
    Interesting observations from my team selection for GW 1:

    1. I only have 6 players from the 'top 6', 3 of which are Liverpool players.

    2. I don't have either of the 2 most expensive players in the game (Kane and Salah).

    3. I'm starting with no City players (due to rotation headaches, but will probably get one or two in after a few weeks).

    4. I have the same number of Palace players (PVA, Mili and Zaha) than as of these teams combined: Chelsea, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs and Arsenal (Eriksen, Auba and Bailly).

    Idk why I just wanted to share.

    1. Indalo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Madness to start with no players from the best team in the league imo

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Interested in what your team actually is lol

      1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Fabianski-Patricio
        PVA-Coleman-Bailly-Robbo-Cedric
        Mane-Eriksen-Mili-Romeu- Richarlison
        Zaha-Auba-Frimino

  6. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Last questions:

    1. Luiz Patricio or Boly Kepa?
    2. Some better 5.5 def than Luiz?
    3. Arnie and Zaha or one from King/Jota in instead?

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      1. Luiz and Pat
      2. Coleman/PVA/Bailly
      3. I prefer Arnie and Zaha.

    2. Egg noodle
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      BK, PVA, ZKJA in that order

    3. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks mates

  7. invertebrate
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone got a good recommendation for a daily fantasy game? Really enjoyed the Yahoo game last year before they stopped taking UK customers and exactly the same from FanDuel the year before.

    1. carlosice
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      starting 11

      1. invertebrate
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Nice, thanks.

  8. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Zaha or Lacazette? The latter means downgrading Mendy or Eriksen.

    1. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Zaha - Laca not 100% nailed.

    2. Blanka
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I've got Zaha with 2.5 in the bank. Swap to Laca perhaps gw3

  9. Football Heaven
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Jota or King?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I prefer King short term

  10. Egg noodle
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    1) Richarlison or Tosun?
    2) Shaw or PVA?

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Richarlison and PVA

      1. Egg noodle
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for your reply

  11. ElliotJHP
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Absolutely love the carnage that is today on here.

    Good luck to all, hope you have just a slightly worse season than me xx

    1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Mark benches Bendy and the community go into meltdown.

  12. MJM
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Is Wilson nailed? Or is defoe a threat?

    1. Egg noodle
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Not nailed

  13. Garlana
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Best 5m midfield options? Likely to be benched most weeks. I've a spare 0.5 and I don't like the 4.5m options.

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Cairney

    2. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Not worth investing 0.5 somewhere that will get used every 5 or whatever games when you could invest it to an improvement on the pitch each week

      1. Garlana
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Perhaps, but my team is solid enough and I've got 0.5m unused with a 4.5m midfielder.

  14. Hotdogs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Would you go with Mendy (and rotate cheap keepers) or Ederson (and have a 4th 4.5 defender in the team) for city defensive cover?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Mendy and 4.5s - faced the same dilemma myself. You will always look at Ederson as soaking up too much cash and you may at some point want 3 city attackers

  15. Mogback
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Patricio (Boruc)
    Van Anholt, VVD, Daniels (Wan Bis, Suttner)
    Salah, Mane, Sanchez, Cairney (Stephens)
    Kun, Zaha, King

    GTG???

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      you know it x

    2. Blanka
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Daniels likely to be ousted isn't he?

  16. Typo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A: Auba, Firmino

    B: Aguero, Laca

    C: Aguero, Firmino

    1. Egg noodle
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Typo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      PLease?

    3. Supersonic
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      C

    4. Squib
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      B. That's what I am on at minute (with Arnautovic)

  17. DiegoCostaFortune
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    RMT please:

    Foster
    Shaw Hoedt Wan-Bissaka
    Mane Mahrez Eriksen Mkhi
    Auba Aguero Arnie

    Fabianski Cairney Dunk Peltier

  18. The Alli Way
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Any news on Bailly? Yellow flag is bugging me, Shaw the safer bet?

    1. Please Help I Don't Kn…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Heard Bailly should play.

  19. ProtrudingNip
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    People overlooking Burnley defense? I'm thinking tarkowski? Anyone else?

    1. AlexDelPiero
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Mee

      1. DantheManinaPan
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        I'm overlooking it too

    2. ☻ Jon Snow ☻
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      They played in Europa yesterday

  20. AlexDelPiero
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Daniels or Kabasele?

    1. Blanka
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Isn't Daniels at risk of losing his place?

      1. AlexDelPiero
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Is he? Why?

      2. Blanka
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Rico. New left back.

    2. AlexDelPiero
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      I have Foster in goals btw

  21. CarrollsPonytail
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A - B.Silva & Jota
    B - Mahrez & Hughes

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A to start off with, then switch to B

    2. Shearer & Sutton
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A for me

  22. Ten Season Wonder
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    I assume Zaha is going to be in a bulk of teams now that he hasn't moved.

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      He has moved out wide though, a slight turn off for myself

  23. BIG TONES
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Alexander-Arnold to start?

    1. Egg noodle
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Liverpool fans are expecting Clyne to start, or takeover from TAA soon even if TAA starts the first one

  24. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Which One?
    A) Erik Firm Bilva Pick
    B) Mane Kun Jota Pat

    1. Squib
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      B

  25. Kasper the ghost keeper
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Start Mendy or Wan Bassaka for opening game?

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      lol

    2. Blanka
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Never bench Mendy.

    3. Jandal Tan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Why not take it a step further and Captain Wan?

    4. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Great post.

    5. Kasper the ghost keeper
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Wan Bassaka (c) it is, thank you all

  26. Jandal Tan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on Mhiki?

    1. Jandal Tan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      At $7m I thought he looked decent value, but hasn't appeared in many teams....

  27. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A) Aubameyang, Cairney
    B) Firmino, Richarlison (have Jota)
    C) Mitrovic, Mane

    Thanks.

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      C could be good

  28. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Which one?

    A) PVA + Arnie
    B) Coleman + Zaha

    1. Shearer & Sutton
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

  29. Redranger
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Which one?

    A) Tomkins, Doherty and Cairney
    B) 5.5 Def, Peltier and 4.5 Mid

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

  30. Mayor of Flair
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Has anyone seen my glasses?